Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DE Submission year: 2015

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2013
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2013
PMs: 2000 - 2013

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
NOx	1A2gviii	201214	158504	130741	107767	91435	90805	85699	86805	80731	78890	74931	73608	72224	75322	72212	71996	73510	74439	76923	71475	79294	81013	72926	72926
NOx	1A4bi	90287	90995	85074	91473	87601	87375	94348	93078	87961	79434	76735	84342	76719	75895	69271	66960	69251	54920	66669	63468	71161	60609	61280	65666
NOx	3Da2a	45406	40494	39754	39540	39712	39518	39739	39051	39085	38963	38353	38933	37996	37803	36979	37202	36612	37014	37194	37569	37264	37562	38188	38663
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	2882281	2639476	2492818	2386925	2199554	2167093	2095292	2029223	2005669	1981136	1925447	1848035	1770095	1715135	1648462	1573212	1557080	1483564	1410817	1310058	1333739	1310814	1270161	1269182
NMVOC	1A3bv	104237	90062	79829	70374	4303	87191	74352	61780	50920	41176	31185	26103	21054	16717	14106	11801	10219	8990	7355	6978	6624	6579	6298	6348
NMVOC	1A5a	177527	123378	76174	47282	23637	528	167	54	50	46	42	39	39	37	35	35	34	30	32	30	31	35	43	48
NMVOC	1B2av	82758	82598	82673	82570	65536	57257	51702	47384	43305	38598	34513	32785	30190	27241	24885	21487	20404	18340	17869	17041	16046	15862	13127	13313
NMVOC	3B1a	113982	101030	96233	95084	94584	93797	93178	90158	86689	85472	81968	81588	79414	78411	76862	75988	73215	73025	75653	75434	75032	75158	75165	76548
NMVOC	3B1b	116914	102393	96524	94331	95160	94906	94049	90812	89998	90194	88744	89511	85113	82556	79334	78341	77167	76709	77926	77817	76813	74246	74057	74940
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	3392424	2907007	2672358	2520264	2015447	2027685	1960036	1933683	1891837	1750069	1599537	1499512	1430230	1360943	1368998	1340184	1325806	1265772	1216202	1130452	1037524	968294	931904	929528
SOx	1A4ai	344483	197698	113632	79410	47618	44153	47610	39350	31725	27084	24846	27863	24049	20892	17834	17229	19379	14179	18632	14678	15799	15175	12155	12946
SOx	1A4bi	449586	281528	187833	167682	140190	112715	113994	105327	92054	78019	73425	79960	68911	61422	52026	50288	54646	39364	51836	43777	51714	48149	39423	41275
SOx	2B10a	56025	24822	23796	21789	20599	25032	22577	23106	24243	24639	24802	23384	23199	23895	25568	25743	30277	30647	29976	25443	28320	31620	31445	31292
NH3	1A3bi	935	3253	6970	10374	12861	16115	19330	22301	23980	24393	27954	26134	25428	24134	23010	20962	19830	18769	17492	16419	14905	14417	13132	12625
NH3	3B1a	194682	175357	171592	171594	173191	172610	173682	168726	165359	164597	160340	162670	158767	158446	156047	155739	151208	152243	154430	154824	154970	155731	152714	154587
NH3	3B1b	212100	187421	179872	176490	168171	167579	165607	160077	158647	160400	156926	158661	149266	148088	141391	138795	136205	134147	135509	135103	132384	127275	124975	126443
NH3	3B3	151796	129388	132878	130450	115691	112183	114926	117196	124069	122297	119103	119432	120172	121257	117315	122273	120276	122827	120443	122275	117470	120182	123685	122383
NH3	3B4gi	24699	22931	20365	20105	19801	20142	18800	19261	18951	18653	18453	18250	17514	18117	18350	17176	17798	18561	17364	16812	15293	17317	19187	21200
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	792328	708654	694175	693433	663248	678375	684606	680159	686895	693059	695908	703412	688152	688247	679840	667857	668317	662991	668925	680125	642627	674824	654933	670849
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	792328	708654	694175	693433	663248	678375	684606	680159	686895	693059	695908	703412	688152	688247	679840	667857	668317	662991	668925	680125	642627	674824	654933	670849
CO	1A4ai	1338589	855631	523452	382787	199814	237594	196366	218944	134870	112596	112985	106617	101427	80943	73445	74677	87656	89068	90230	76153	85365	91997	64807	67586
CO	1A4bi	1924887	1427498	1108713	1050535	966255	839304	824495	897235	827898	816721	789628	857682	791363	746044	686929	664676	708405	689764	758295	786905	1039485	925808	792177	809330
CO	2C1	1161313	1092029	1005594	956392	1028087	972464	907230	968502	940457	859569	906807	857807	828602	820079	831641	810118	824574	838588	788945	557436	734593	733824	702723	707295
CO	2C3	111038	103545	90420	82790	75510	103500	103770	102942	110176	113760	115883	117503	117810	119016	120390	116247	92956	99708	109068	52517	72496	77850	73876	88626
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	12534124	10317840	8944021	8142299	6784483	6413222	5959474	5824163	5385088	5023169	4786575	4599944	4328054	4145518	3909680	3705200	3639214	3558149	3482056	3082253	3528864	3450504	3063034	3088887
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	12534124	10317840	8944021	8142299	6784483	6413222	5959474	5824163	5385088	5023169	4786575	4599944	4328054	4145518	3909680	3705200	3639214	3558149	3482056	3082253	3528864	3450504	3063034	3088887

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
PM2.5	2C1	7915	7254	6638	6278	5950	5363	4865	4272	2872	1979	2431	2416	2262	2211
PM10	2C1	15279	13656	12341	11456	10754	9603	8856	7989	5047	3486	4368	4351	4102	4038
TSP	2C1	22210	19761	17829	16501	15473	13800	12795	11626	8870	6183	7803	7814	7406	7318

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Pb	1A3bi	1538516073	861278543	605125457	471462806	295135036	218965562	117142869	2658182	1294319	1319644	1274968	1293526	1305944	1272613	1320754	1287364	1274186	1273688	1258641	1265963	1254417	1283252	1252770	1293285
Pb	1A4bi	9555576	11589652	9777132	9622763	9355751	11459531	10944605	10096297	8187372	8558444	8884798	9401805	9279387	6888578	6012908	6189146	7353676	8539677	8780989	7347034	11235205	12355419	6179188	6306115
Pb	2G	74480000	70546855	66613710	62680565	58747420	54814275	54103526	46695040	20074085	33903531	37910555	18933286	28586051	28499733	36336126	29908137	34094017	35048485	33106857	32802142	33438933	30291826	33599627	30509438
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	2130283126	1358996769	1040383848	868378437	673962007	739122193	603935403	486871184	446786481	442349339	463412531	431497434	419994710	403652767	401644179	374958168	374562515	366123405	224952882	201541996	220307214	220465237	212325288	210138176
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	2130283126	1358996769	1040383848	868378437	673962007	739122193	603935403	486871184	446786481	442349339	463412531	431497434	419994710	403652767	401644179	374958168	374562515	366123405	224952882	201541996	220307214	220465237	212325288	210138176
Cd	1A1a	4915036	3598866	2837490	2200977	1647957	1137916	1205678	1145110	1179218	1138752	1202143	1249716	1232466	1273567	1235242	1211360	1237128	1259230	1184569	1113536	1145131	1128447	1209852	1243613
Cd	1A1b	1058877	1089940	1158006	1347932	1536161	1167288	1082599	1191613	1001147	1472524	1177210	1227792	1408787	1530329	1292841	1404481	1479010	1484965	1409728	1234219	1268891	1229318	1157722	1125550
Cd	1A1c	4062606	2885866	1510164	941064	489721	104964	89211	67024	65770	65826	63951	54997	57898	65479	70364	63990	67665	65406	49033	40088	43522	43222	9429	8743
Cd	1A2gviii	1893828	897444	439685	231578	127513	93526	86057	97815	81989	73030	51164	45756	53008	72787	75468	78802	82705	84589	87059	79673	81426	92363	95778	97712
Cd	1A4bi	265391	304634	272956	275103	308638	432345	431935	525072	506355	518532	506984	555217	541167	498939	460764	459964	497956	504308	539798	556708	806686	729836	568736	580995
Cd	2C1	4121229	3935709	3760946	3541514	3842463	7009273	6522777	6960949	6584244	6263530	6230045	5617242	4927772	4378868	3916166	3227184	2703187	2100727	1347153	963936	1256664	1267894	1218077	1219688
Hg	1A1a	12407793	10626935	9372667	8137952	7261792	6277225	6512503	6146543	6244444	6011322	6355294	6630500	6615281	6807797	6688981	6479826	6565953	6723755	6323264	5989351	6110473	6075627	6508032	6571894
Hg	1A1c	6416924	4764380	2732456	1916272	1237404	719707	584968	432138	362121	338943	319407	280094	298030	329396	357904	326991	336733	336553	264180	218368	311399	313989	177291	154241
Hg	1A2gviii	5221385	2760983	1645982	1126319	813291	727255	640998	719473	582701	544215	368414	361111	374434	382599	326981	318797	344331	335305	346747	277641	324570	333142	328973	352074
Hg	1A4bi	941896	710658	517458	489823	445713	391224	402562	341648	298719	300734	296337	322929	303731	275944	254336	256141	280945	280258	305228	289592	383662	369147	270738	282716
Hg	2A1	828733	744430	782507	787234	831082	720993	701780	739844	769269	797085	786955	710943	688573	739552	785092	741992	772554	818836	752651	673883	651765	685731	664046	609422
Hg	2B10a	3010000	3345000	3244000	2852000	2924000	2935000	2820000	2630000	2705000	2399000	1849000	1564000	1398000	1211000	1248000	1140000	1079000	950000	790000	712000	600000	512000	512000	434000
Hg	2C1	2704614	2614786	2621813	2479433	2725696	4838643	4719058	5204466	5262915	5125035	5490867	5100738	4487793	3994647	3597235	2913377	2452316	1866862	1182814	907959	1065915	1137059	1101564	1078932
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	32246480	26300222	21664963	18569348	17018285	17439190	17230101	17071588	17072352	16364968	16342635	15827710	15030624	14606467	14124146	13028174	12689476	12169719	10818628	9864932	10245936	10246309	10328509	10257110
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	32246480	26300222	21664963	18569348	17018285	17439190	17230101	17071588	17072352	16364968	16342635	15827710	15030624	14606467	14124146	13028174	12689476	12169719	10818628	9864932	10245936	10246309	10328509	10257110

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
DIOX	1A4bi	19618	15867	13358	13284	12486	11465	11917	13587	13244	12952	12749	14261	13469	13575	12918	12753	13304	12157	13725	14189	17571	15152	14270	14826
HCB	1A1a	3769941	3756681	3624323	3584428	3386286	3162142	2988514	2966397	2900785	2959707	2828352	2483326	2113751	1784370	1273808	1308012	1410920	1444685	1419395	1414038	1488912	1459554	1523579	1562730
PCB	1A4bi	78522303	56662408	43034264	41196076	37179161	31025612	31812396	29774200	26832204	25668304	24954182	27947315	25645306	24504575	22487846	22616704	24671421	21633293	25552740	24725832	31219144	28577839	23620620	24301501
PCB	2C5	603072000	615648000	589056000	545088000	531200000	452225940	304739960	368687270	339176520	282770650	248167620	180069780	122238400	57794730	753900	718200	676200	745500	745500	820260	851340	901110	888451	840682
PCB	2C6	196560000	235224000	272916000	333594000	355104000	276864760	250294040	210585240	187301240	156150550	123614820	93069260	65824720	33907320	420200	368500	377300	368500	321200	168300	181830	186890	186341	178454
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1680414427	1693652504	1669699819	1655046611	1644314083	1483566583	1242721432	1263566050	1187746353	1064166189	948442957	752117739	567479597	388047972	188079054	194143705	210601159	211578407	219571933	198129849	233109610	242807964	232211285	232891695
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	1680414427	1693652504	1669699819	1655046611	1644314083	1483566583	1242721432	1263566050	1187746353	1064166189	948442957	752117739	567479597	388047972	188079054	194143705	210601159	211578407	219571933	198129849	233109610	242807964	232211285	232891695