Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DE Submission year: 2014

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2012
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2012
PMs: 2000 - 2012

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
NOx	1A3di(i)	182949	153727	128462	160603	147800	149184	147925	159061	150384	152661	161299	162822	175134	193432	197808	185235	191997	229534	221656	202471	206402	203096	189928
NOx	1A4bi	90287	90995	85074	91473	87601	87375	94348	93078	87961	79434	76735	84342	76719	75895	69271	66960	69251	54920	66669	63468	71161	60609	64049
NOx	FUTOTAL	2874955	2631467	2489470	2384327	2225453	2172009	2101149	2032238	2003612	1977749	1919074	1841305	1761187	1706287	1639868	1565249	1555601	1478635	1404283	1305351	1328073	1293635	1273383
NOx	GRIDTOTAL	2874955	2631467	2489470	2384327	2225453	2172009	2101149	2032238	2003612	1977749	1919074	1841305	1761187	1706287	1639868	1565249	1555601	1478635	1404283	1305351	1328073	1293635	1273383
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	2874955	2631467	2489470	2384327	2225453	2172009	2101149	2032238	2003612	1977749	1919074	1841305	1761187	1706287	1639868	1565249	1555601	1478635	1404283	1305351	1328073	1293635	1273383
NOx	UNFCCCTOTAL	2876952	2633099	2490097	2384322	2225386	2171591	2100978	2032407	2003718	1977718	1919189	1841130	1761069	1705658	1638375	1563414	1553768	1476670	1402119	1303319	1324934	1289059	1269256
NMVOC	1A3bi	949768	707924	653560	565464	443752	416846	381752	342153	308049	268501	226721	207282	187494	166352	152747	134283	119604	109812	97574	91456	84788	82632	76494
NMVOC	1A3bv	104237	90062	79829	70374	58062	51638	44313	37106	30756	25027	19194	16083	13132	10651	9111	7738	6657	5983	4979	4770	4564	4562	4437
NMVOC	1A5a	177527	123376	76174	47282	23637	528	167	54	50	46	42	39	39	37	35	35	34	30	32	30	31	34	42
SOx	1A3di(i)	125167	105666	86051	109582	100757	101234	94483	103187	100377	103702	109429	112123	120708	134101	139552	130041	132221	159764	156949	141582	143251	141829	133442
SOx	1A4ai	344492	197705	113640	79418	47627	44153	47610	39350	31732	27091	24855	27871	24049	20893	17838	17239	19386	14179	18632	14678	15799	15175	16154
SOx	1A4bi	449586	281528	187833	167682	140190	112715	113994	105327	92054	78019	73425	79960	68911	61422	52026	50288	54646	39364	51836	43777	51714	48149	47157
SOx	2B5a	56025	24822	23796	21789	20599	25032	22577	23106	24243	24639	24802	23384	23199	23895	25568	25743	30277	30647	29976	25443	28320	31620	31577
NH3	1A3bi	935	3253	6970	10374	12898	16161	19385	22354	24004	24374	27885	26047	25316	24003	22861	20804	19312	18210	17045	16058	14615	14012	12910
NH3	4B1a	195260	176315	172634	172692	174367	173540	173758	167887	163767	162419	157624	159542	155025	153938	151445	150911	146257	147104	149806	149874	149905	150640	147639
NH3	4B1b	202495	178355	172326	169636	159048	159446	158136	152476	151467	153398	150810	152903	143983	141484	135199	133521	131332	129961	131289	131113	128829	124117	122181
NH3	4B8	140107	118405	121935	120121	106806	103737	106555	108305	115262	111886	109251	110175	111458	111468	108890	111835	109868	111941	108641	108643	103507	103177	105025
NH3	4B9a	24310	22570	20044	19789	19490	19827	18507	18962	18661	18369	18177	17982	17265	17864	18102	16991	17640	18442	17292	16812	15337	15471	15498
NH3	FUTOTAL	697180	621400	611609	613546	587055	597588	603602	595993	601221	600312	599696	606881	593038	588643	580769	572219	568124	566126	566925	574102	548532	560194	545431
NH3	GRIDTOTAL	697180	621400	611609	613546	587055	597588	603602	595993	601221	600312	599696	606881	593038	588643	580769	572219	568124	566126	566925	574102	548532	560194	545431
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	697180	621400	611609	613546	587055	597588	603602	595993	601221	600312	599696	606881	593038	588643	580769	572219	568124	566126	566925	574102	548532	560194	545431
NH3	UNFCCCTOTAL	697207	621418	611614	613546	587054	597581	603596	595991	601220	600309	599694	606875	593032	588632	580746	572193	568097	566098	566892	574071	548488	560131	545373
CO	1A3bi	6094143	5190224	4688979	4252478	3667707	3416704	3105768	2797013	2543897	2299109	1979090	1806744	1635392	1456880	1334411	1175671	1045870	964354	864953	811511	745828	720689	665868
CO	1A4bi	1924887	1427498	1108713	1050535	966255	839304	824495	897235	827898	816721	789628	857682	791363	746044	686929	664676	708405	689764	758295	786905	1039485	925808	968820
CO	2C1	1161313	1092029	1005594	956392	1028087	972464	907230	968502	940457	859569	906807	857807	828602	820079	831641	810118	824574	838588	788945	557436	734593	672780	702723
CO	2C3	111038	103545	90420	82790	75510	103500	103770	102942	110176	113760	115883	117503	117810	119016	120390	116247	92956	99708	109068	52517	72496	77850	73876
CO	FUTOTAL	12431686	10169950	8778896	7977865	7044008	6600227	6130453	5972755	5508736	5135904	4843642	4638819	4345277	4143640	3890760	3667137	3587253	3484303	3395697	3014793	3456023	3297727	3299839
CO	GRIDTOTAL	12431686	10169950	8778896	7977865	7044008	6600227	6130453	5972755	5508736	5135904	4843642	4638819	4345277	4143640	3890760	3667137	3587253	3484303	3395697	3014793	3456023	3297727	3299839
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	12431686	10169950	8778896	7977865	7044008	6600227	6130453	5972755	5508736	5135904	4843642	4638819	4345277	4143640	3890760	3667137	3587253	3484303	3395697	3014793	3456023	3297727	3299839
CO	UNFCCCTOTAL	12427973	10166284	8774707	7973717	7039417	6595113	6125577	5967896	5503508	5130413	4837752	4632826	4339558	4137533	3883691	3659345	3578991	3475475	3386629	3006108	3446689	3287664	3289806

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
TSP	2C1	22198	19749	17818	16490	15462	13790	12782	11615	8860	6176	7794	7240	7415

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Pb	1A3bi	1538516084	861278541	605125454	471462808	295108361	218940864	117126011	2657817	1293793	1318500	1273257	1291261	1303044	1269237	1316313	1282161	1258403	1256350	1239334	1244645	1230802	1256847	1218165
Pb	FUTOTAL	2056830279	1289392561	974229910	805970980	615065065	685160937	550247121	440231048	426334432	408089842	425175652	412262876	391134886	374907035	365083103	344848616	340270280	330848711	191611558	168506917	186647002	182595283	185152422
Pb	GRIDTOTAL	2056830279	1289392561	974229910	805970980	615065065	685160937	550247121	440231048	426334432	408089842	425175652	412262876	391134886	374907035	365083103	344848616	340270280	330848711	191611558	168506917	186647002	182595283	185152422
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	2056830279	1289392561	974229910	805970980	615065065	685160937	550247121	440231048	426334432	408089842	425175652	412262876	391134886	374907035	365083103	344848616	340270280	330848711	191611558	168506917	186647002	182595283	185152422
Pb	UNFCCCTOTAL	2056830279	1289392561	974229910	805970980	615065065	685160937	550247121	440231048	426334432	408089842	425175652	412262876	391134886	374907035	365083103	344848616	340270280	330848711	191611558	168506917	186647002	182595283	185152422
Cd	1A1a	4915036	3598866	2837490	2200977	1647957	1137916	1205678	1145110	1179218	1138752	1202143	1249716	1232466	1273243	1235054	1211129	1237263	1259236	1184726	1113514	1145189	1128638	1206274
Cd	1A1b	1058877	1089940	1158006	1347932	1536161	1167289	1082598	1191613	1001147	1472525	1177209	1227793	1408786	1530299	1292999	1404751	1479464	1485306	1410092	1234614	1269383	1227766	1252731
Cd	1A1c	4062606	2885866	1510164	941064	489721	104964	89211	67024	65770	65826	63951	54997	57898	65479	70364	63990	67665	65406	49033	40088	43522	43222	14896
Cd	1A2fi	1893828	897444	439685	231578	127513	93526	86057	97815	81989	73030	51164	45756	53008	72790	75471	78795	82679	84585	87067	79679	81409	93537	94087
Cd	1A4bi	265391	304634	272956	275103	308638	432345	431935	525072	506355	518532	506984	555217	541167	498939	460764	459964	497956	504308	539798	556708	806686	729836	724318
Cd	2C1	4121229	3935709	3760946	3541514	3842463	7009273	6522777	6960949	6584244	6263530	6230045	5617242	4927772	4378868	3916166	3227184	2703187	2100727	1347153	963936	1256664	1194980	1218077
Hg	1A1a	12407793	10626935	9372667	8137952	7261792	6277225	6512503	6146543	6244444	6011322	6355294	6630500	6615281	6806592	6688284	6479237	6566647	6723953	6324287	5989178	6110594	6076316	6498815
Hg	1A1c	6416924	4764380	2732456	1916272	1237404	719707	584968	432138	362121	338943	319407	280094	298030	329396	357904	326991	336733	336553	264180	218368	311399	313989	200826
Hg	1A2fi	5221385	2760983	1645982	1126319	813291	727259	641001	719476	582703	544217	368415	361111	374434	382656	327040	318665	343881	335247	346681	277622	324266	324536	284079
Hg	1A4bi	941896	710658	517458	489823	445713	391224	402562	341648	298719	300734	296337	322929	303731	275944	254336	256141	280945	280258	305228	289592	383662	369147	363987
Hg	2A1	828733	744430	782507	787234	831082	720993	701780	739844	769269	797085	786955	710943	688573	739552	785092	741992	772554	818836	752651	673883	651765	685731	664046
Hg	2B5a	3010000	3345000	3244000	2852000	2924000	2935000	2820000	2630000	2705000	2399000	1849000	1564000	1398000	1211000	1248000	1140000	1079000	950000	790000	712000	600000	512000	512000
Hg	2C1	2704614	2614786	2621813	2479433	2725696	4838643	4719058	5204466	5262915	5125035	5490867	5100738	4487793	3994647	3597235	2913377	2452316	1866862	1182814	907959	1065915	1115015	1101564
Hg	FUTOTAL	32180373	26237585	21605849	18502901	16950693	17372135	17163973	17007000	17007137	16299891	16278662	15765167	14966122	14538341	14057644	12964368	12626881	12105484	10752917	9797752	10178214	10146250	10366276
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	32180373	26237585	21605849	18502901	16950693	17372135	17163973	17007000	17007137	16299891	16278662	15765167	14966122	14538341	14057644	12964368	12626881	12105484	10752917	9797752	10178214	10146250	10366276
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	32180373	26237585	21605849	18502901	16950693	17372135	17163973	17007000	17007137	16299891	16278662	15765167	14966122	14538341	14057644	12964368	12626881	12105484	10752917	9797752	10178214	10146250	10366276
Hg	UNFCCCTOTAL	32180373	26237585	21605849	18502901	16950693	17372135	17163973	17007000	17007137	16299891	16278662	15765167	14966122	14538341	14057644	12964368	12626881	12105484	10752917	9797752	10178214	10146250	10366276

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
DIOX	1A3di(i)	9455	7945	6639	8300	7639	7710	7645	8221	7772	7890	8336	8415	9051	9997	10223	9573	9923	11863	11456	10464	10667	10496	9816
DIOX	1A4bi	19618	15867	13358	13284	12486	11465	11917	13587	13244	12952	12749	14261	13469	13575	12918	12753	13304	12157	13725	14189	17571	15152	16222
HCB	1A1a	3769941	3756681	3624323	3584428	3386286	3162142	2988514	2966397	2900785	2959707	2828352	2483326	2113751	1784370	1273808	1308012	1410920	1444685	1419395	1414038	1488912	1459554	1512463
HCB	1A3di(i)	317415	267698	219205	278051	255708	257168	243205	264696	255896	263379	278000	283947	305632	339126	351634	328002	334840	403691	395172	357402	362183	358126	336525