Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CZ Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NOx	1A2f	14687	16339	19683	13604	14849	13573	13626	15785	13968	13560	6220	12820	8399	7342	12505	11726	11954	11875	12916	9571	9633	8942	8115	6940	7449	7965	7955	7650
NOx	1A3bi	37871	35385	44854	41086	45908	44673	46929	42296	40493	39610	39325	36285	36210	38167	37520	36887	35608	35663	33577	33156	30600	29987	28882	28437	28117	27567	27952	28190
SOx	1A2c	124680	109796	91785	62557	71611	66569	64322	53339	39140	13078	13209	13365	14371	15341	16857	15954	14930	13280	11505	11536	12064	10537	8770	8735	8611	8032	5919	6259
SOx	1B2aiv	3586	3731	3810	3381	3456	2137	2451	2342	2987	3197	2693	2564	2746	1198	2101	1713	1910	2216	2971	2297	2400	2489	5244	1633	2185	2088	1773	1386
SOx	2B10a	11302	6178	4278	3095	2820	4606	4570	2114	1480	1977	459	503	631	486	456	558	579	613	595	713	601	633	676	711	1018	815	3892	1094

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
BC	1A3c	177	165	160	157	155	158	166	163	181	164	159	155	150	147	152	149	150	153

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A2a	75806631	65234629	57140445	48003321	51509493	52139740	49662220	39062656	22603892	11705332	12634054	12976608	13208159	12908159	13480702	12699961	13089241	13331312	11339278	6731148	7557940	5057389	5131130	5442619	5707419	3964693	396119	360686
Pb	1A3	129562927	112265633	144752324	136982882	158669321	164996027	185690818	183359081	180760262	192033427	185258662	58455428	59381518	44087431	23350660	3630197	3721798	3889052	3883935	3783189	3549703	3384251	3405301	3318321	3398958	3460208	3546623	3597591
Pb	1A3aii(i)	13205841	3521558	3521558	2054242	1760779	1173853	1173853	586926	293463	586926	279468	532695	762141	714508	669851	418657	392491	367960	344963	323402	303190	142120	266475	249821	234207	208623	208623	208623
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	118852573	31694019	31694019	18488178	15847010	10564673	10564673	5282337	2641168	5282337	2515212	4794256	6859273	6430569	6028658	3767911	3532417	3311641	3104663	2910622	2728708	1279082	2398279	2248386	2107862	1877608	1877608	1877608
Pb	1A3bi	107254885	100166975	129301507	122590144	142409217	148710333	168472558	167279601	165189705	176308810	170633396	52699337	53456136	39096022	19515978	960676	939994	977141	934506	903054	819159	786614	735474	693924	686076	691657	718575	703852
Pb	1A3bii	2683907	2739017	4806346	5624669	7034699	7724319	8376390	7867626	7869866	8205881	7805112	2157944	2058039	1399506	710104	36005	34898	39399	42250	41310	37624	34575	29170	24349	23154	21736	20932	18791
Pb	1A3bvi	1240514	1127468	1164711	1122542	1231038	1128808	1138398	1140124	1299987	1338516	1383629	1482238	1587113	1818591	1926808	2120114	2256955	2401560	2459025	2412763	2293092	2323306	2278234	2255316	2351243	2430026	2486525	2547720
Pb	1A4bi	3686224	3327895	2956508	2735520	2571494	2343630	2501552	2242927	1662569	1324116	1358047	1409249	1318191	1306243	1298353	1142280	1203166	1144472	1133702	1232878	1427714	1440134	1498357	1562233	1450324	1477490	1496853	1591564
Pb	2A3	26184897	22450770	22152241	21487233	23231923	18033097	8580553	8489746	6071351	3799486	4800747	5337987	5168942	5871150	5888899	6230848	6013618	5834595	2280465	2206064	1488333	780054	1103087	1435074	902314	261081	356507	163309
Pb	2C1	63881959	41078036	34082309	27445743	20291150	15079049	7032480	7970649	7742091	6174431	5442419	5287312	4605543	5164544	5158585	5209123	5591882	5023243	4794842	3454758	3875315	3946982	3546405	3486025	3701507	3908009	4010132	3415100
Pb	2C5	15800000	7700000	6805900	5617000	4814000	5032300	3913030	2334840	1863900	1682570	3770350	3176403	1684875	1279504	515999	787535	888448	602336	430757	173469	240191	716499	215722	1175364	1516738	443711	454549	308673
Pb	2G										1622536	1425270	1280443	1274157	1301341	1698681	1715536	1526279	1387198	2191382	2574297	1003678	2415848	3503546	3454869	3344110	4051077	3980664	4811107
Cd	1A1a	208745	201890	191825	192891	173766	186933	188692	167501	161773	156971	160824	172680	167219	168811	166257	160535	156551	171881	150680	142432	146135	145469	136897	124813	123273	120511	122644	122606
Cd	1A2a	559871	493288	439348	380652	412063	411501	401979	368026	317183	260642	283370	290939	301552	303322	316604	304613	307774	311217	256033	154599	171483	118328	119148	125198	131237	94527	19999	17568
Cd	1A2d	14307	14498	12314	11573	11422	9318	8466	5721	6771	5781	6306	5214	5537	2099	1803	3096	62659	63348	61085	2124	2326	2104	2361	1883	1716	1790	1562	1514
Cd	2A3	235660	202054	199367	193382	209084	158558	198928	449221	687275	333210	250649	306453	298254	263772	212521	98096	123689	111590	64536	72443	47042	74811	30232	28895	34764	6668	27032	17263
Cd	2C1	1890193	1238346	1007148	816017	627375	509933	294480	312310	277914	225274	287934	292951	277202	324303	335234	303336	318604	281651	233989	202476	200922	207291	137259	111531	119195	141445	146648	123232
Cd	2C3	5021	3645	3224	3124	2669	2548	3242	3504	3711	3587	2981	2787	4897	7393	23210	18335	66503	13474	73642	18053	20367	21764	31913	29135	33328	37279	27950	26014
Cd	2C5											3660	3755	17588	22186	9214	9856	7915	32114	17094	18629	18298	6462	3054	48792	52610	3783	5241	1381
Cd	2G	120439	112768	108730	106697	113830	121782	120524	130918	102904	119062	107027	94128	106705	123328	127000	129173	132759	134075	123234	122362	117241	117339	117178	114606	117281	122199	120966	122410
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	4059212	3286980	2959971	2534117	2336188	2096763	1890510	2051731	2186517	1683369	1664559	1745512	1764380	1813369	1777146	1607133	1754447	1730774	1623638	1358179	1357910	1333708	1233199	1254194	1289518	1229528	1179185	1167387
Hg	1A1a	1467216	1401997	1310110	1330662	1263417	1339474	1389575	1378743	1323904	1210074	1331779	1409239	1373449	1397315	1387323	1376097	1296243	1437927	1280578	1221583	1250765	1233740	1184622	1080271	1077972	1035739	1042569	1058963
Hg	1A1c	80847	70721	77199	75935	75294	79810	75292	66280	66916	67272	56794	71587	72778	76154	77923	81798	79090	85135	82671	75917	79919	82232	82605	78546	76297	79215	83641	80478
Hg	1A4bi	916149	903088	849240	791863	736215	677021	736586	698602	578942	526643	545997	572000	557532	566403	563851	538546	558521	551539	562261	596829	628367	627366	634091	660958	628700	634496	636665	655402
Hg	2B10a	724890	694909	712000	380000	506900	834500	678400	295820	283350	224400	191320	178990	85943	175180	163078	121353	96317	96022	82490	80245	106604	110446	105051	76185	62160	56010	50730	28119
Hg	2C1	165286	142109	124109	110790	119818	129483	119513	129714	142780	122401	378292	421427	446534	450809	459177	491788	596869	387604	578203	254830	386637	380944	223689	184823	190456	177467	103071	88600
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	4954927	4764238	4568204	4089683	4146712	4293971	4159630	3560661	3337706	3002914	3357759	3397729	3405079	3473945	3445351	3488659	3596213	3488028	3485767	3078971	3313007	3343991	3004468	2814090	2770271	2710061	2648508	2606887

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	1A1a	1710	1621	1541	1539	1411	1473	1492	1368	1288	1210	1340	1443	1401	1427	1399	1366	1329	1416	1271	1213	1271	1256	1213	1124	1112	1096	1098	1119
DIOX	1A2a	62011	55405	49742	43552	47537	47557	47202	46601	44979	39966	42918	44147	45626	49228	46098	43536	45039	46457	39628	24949	26952	20075	19799	21070	22108	16732	6366	5835
DIOX	5E		3893	4228	4146	4026	3827	4058	3978	3941	3839	3713	3769	3914	4096	3799	3899	4067	3867	3924	4093	4455	3871	3881	3679	3572	3520	3917	3695
PCB	2C1	185209	171404	166877	157369	173932	176132	166361	180935	174087	150339	173461	175063	181468	192664	197052	174222	241447	420806	178156	142361	155411	183865	161896	155380	156903	149798	153248	132507