Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CZ Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A2f	14687	16339	19683	13604	14849	13573	13626	15785	13968	13560	6220	12820	8399	7342	12505	11726	11954	11875	12916	9571	9633	8942	8115	6940	7449	7965	7955
NMVOC	1A3bv	24027	22455	29222	21460	19969	17374	17782	16016	15797	16753	16183	15621	15346	15346	13631	13071	12512	12669	11908	10525	9947	9545	9053	8727	8510	8167	8318
SOx	1A2c	124680	109796	91785	62557	71611	66569	64322	53339	39140	13078	13209	13365	14371	15341	16857	15954	14930	13280	11505	11536	12064	10537	8770	8735	8611	8032	5919
SOx	1B2c											14	759	3152	488	529	364	2170	6532	2422	4909	1842	6575	5246	1648		2	1519

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
BC	1A3c	177	165	160	157	155	157	163	162	179	162	157	153	148	145	146	141	146

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A2f	1689844	1591494	1464371	976700	736517	484945	452019	327556	258946	220423	295636	340885	1386597	1711593	323757	370167	678102	530281	540632	222027	445135	212816	385636	251989	171360	184021	137876
Pb	1A3	105640354	89704758	113757336	107358558	123736531	127538085	142630683	140722130	139501844	147787027	63140790	9366772	9956587	9499145	8245795	7962283	8101431	8368962	8247919	7971664	7554749	7420035	7380581	7335388	7560406	7795816	8017603
Pb	1A3aii(i)	13205841	3521558	3521558	2054242	1760779	1173853	1173853	586926	293463	586926	840000	520000	740000	690000	650000	400000	380000	360000	330000	310000	290000	140000	260000	240000	230000	210000	210000
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	118852573	31694019	31694019	18488178	15847010	10564673	10564673	5282337	2641168	5282337	7550000	4720000	6630000	6220000	5830000	3640000	3420000	3200000	3000000	2810000	2640000	1240000	2320000	2170000	2040000	1880000	1880000
Pb	1A3bi	86616557	80946043	105340484	100563857	116976356	122121035	137483202	136208888	134336695	142452795	57790000	4220000	4270000	3110000	1550000	760000	740000	780000	770000	750000	690000	660000	620000	580000	580000	580000	590000
Pb	1A4bi	3686224	3327895	2956508	2735520	2571494	2343630	2501552	2242927	1662569	1324116	1358047	1409249	1318191	1306243	1298353	1142280	1203166	1144472	1133702	1232878	1427714	1440134	1498357	1562233	1450324	1477490	1496853
Pb	2A3	26184897	22450770	22152241	21487233	23231923	18033097	8580553	8489746	6071351	3799486	4800747	5337987	5168942	5871150	5888899	6230848	6013618	5834595	2280465	2206064	1488333	780054	1103087	1435074	902314	261081	356507
Pb	2C1	63881959	41078036	34082309	27445743	20291150	15079049	7032480	7970649	7742091	6174431	5442419	5287312	4605543	5164544	5158585	5209123	5591882	5023243	4794842	3454758	3875315	3946982	3546405	3486025	3701507	3908009	4010132
Pb	2C5	15800000	7700000	6805900	5617000	4814000	5032300	3913030	2334840	1863900	1682570	3770350	3176403	1684875	1279504	515999	787535	888448	602336	430757	173469	240191	716499	215722	1175364	1516738	443711	454549
Cd	1A1a	208745	201890	191825	192891	173766	186933	188692	167501	161773	156971	160824	172680	167219	168811	166257	160535	156551	171881	150680	142432	146135	145469	136897	124813	123273	120511	122644
Cd	1A2a	559871	493288	439348	380652	412063	411501	401979	368026	317183	260642	283370	290939	301552	303322	316604	304613	307774	311217	256033	154599	171483	118328	119148	125198	131237	94527	19999
Cd	1A2d	14307	14498	12314	11573	11422	9318	8466	5721	6771	5781	6306	5214	5537	2099	1803	3096	62659	63348	61085	2124	2326	2104	2361	1883	1716	1790	1562
Cd	2A3	235660	202054	199367	193382	209084	158558	198928	449221	687275	333210	250649	306453	298254	263772	212521	98096	123689	111590	64536	72443	47042	74811	30232	28895	34764	6668	27032
Cd	2C1	1890193	1238346	1007148	816017	627375	509933	294480	312310	277914	225274	287934	292951	277202	324303	335234	303336	318604	281651	233989	202476	200922	207291	137259	111531	119195	141445	146648
Cd	2C3	5021	3645	3224	3124	2669	2548	3242	3504	3711	3587	2981	2787	4897	7393	23210	18335	66503	13474	73642	18053	20367	21764	31913	29135	33328	37279	27950
Cd	2C5											3660	3755	17588	22186	9214	9856	7915	32114	17094	18629	18298	6462	3054	48792	52610	3783	5241
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	3987605	3218420	2895028	2469748	2267861	2015494	1809888	1960274	2130278	1610904	1605078	1702571	1711685	1751590	1714571	1548062	1692904	1671059	1574307	1308172	1309266	1285123	1183318	1206457	1241444	1179125	1132630
Hg	1A1a	1467216	1401997	1310110	1330662	1263417	1339474	1389575	1378743	1323904	1210074	1331779	1409239	1373449	1397315	1387323	1376097	1296243	1437927	1280578	1221583	1250765	1233740	1184622	1080271	1077972	1035739	1042569
Hg	1A1c	80847	70721	77199	75935	75294	79810	75292	66280	66916	67272	56794	71587	72778	76154	77923	81798	79090	85135	82671	75917	79919	82232	82605	78546	76297	79215	83641
Hg	1A4bi	916149	903088	849240	791863	736215	677021	736586	698602	578942	526643	545997	572000	557532	566403	563851	538546	558521	551539	562261	596829	628367	627366	634091	660958	628700	634496	636665
Hg	2B10a	724890	694909	712000	380000	506900	834500	678400	295820	283350	224400	191320	178990	85943	175180	163078	121353	96317	96022	82490	80245	106604	110446	105051	76185	62160	56010	50730
Hg	2C1	165286	142109	124109	110790	119818	129483	119513	129714	142780	122401	378292	421427	446534	450809	459177	491788	596869	387604	578203	254830	386637	380944	223689	184823	190456	177467	103071
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	4954917	4764220	4568209	4089679	4146722	4293972	4159624	3560666	3338120	3003102	3357736	3397705	3405059	3473928	3445298	3488592	3596166	3485783	3485663	3078857	3312978	3343861	3004260	2813876	2770050	2709762	2652669

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A1a	1710	1621	1541	1539	1411	1473	1492	1368	1288	1210	1340	1443	1401	1427	1399	1366	1329	1416	1271	1213	1271	1256	1213	1124	1112	1096	1098
DIOX	5E		3893	4228	4146	4026	3827	4058	3978	3941	3839	3713	3769	3914	4096	3799	3899	4067	3867	3924	4093	4455	3871	3881	3679	3572	3520	3917
PCB	2C1	185209	171404	166877	157369	173932	176132	166361	180935	174087	150339	173461	175063	181468	192664	197052	174222	241447	420806	178156	142361	155411	183865	161896	155380	156903	149798	153248
PCB	5C1bi	137974	204171	223913	178489	274033	220684	213958	203025	206900	191874	270376	149398	173198	5599	220493	229234	251318	257103	267026	205829	229491	285152	287682	283634	300646	268870	303560