Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CZ Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A3											40424	40424	40424	40424	40424	40424	40424	40424	40424	40424	40424	40424	40424	40424	40424	39096
NMVOC	1A3											12980	12980	12980	12980	12980	12980	12980	12980	12980	12980	12980	12980	12980	12980	12980	11772
SOx	1B2aiv											2693	2564	2746	2746	2101	1713	1910	2216	2971	2297	2400	2489	8322	1633	2185	2088
SOx	1B2c											14	759	3152	3152	529	364	2170	6532	2422	4909	1842	6575	2168	1648		2
NH3	1A3											2069	2069	2069	2069	2069	2069	2069	2069	2069	2069	2069	2069	2069	2069	2069	2099
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	156000	134000	115000	99000	91000	86000	81000	81000	80000	75000	84254	85044	82427	82427	76791	74465	74130	75419	74258	69033	67766	66912	66737	68507	69204	69722
CO	1A3											70835	70835	70835	70835	70835	70835	70835	70835	70835	70835	70835	70835	70835	70835	70835	66341

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	1A3	3455	3455	3455	3455	3455	3455	3455	3455	3455	3455	3455	3455	3455	3455	3455	3206
PM2.5	2A5a	619	607	622	622	440	460	1084	620	1531	350	609	518	510	618	596	621
PM10	1A3	4329	4329	4329	4329	4329	4329	4329	4329	4329	4329	4329	4329	4329	4329	4329	4134
PM10	2A5a	2053	1945	1499	1499	1470	1560	2342	2035	4600	1169	1126	1017	1032	1147	1111	1168
TSP	1A2f	3307	1375	750	750	951	974	919	965	830	638	627	500	428	459	468	436
TSP	1A3	5394	5394	5394	5394	5394	5394	5394	5394	5394	5394	5394	5394	5394	5394	5394	5264
TSP	1A4ai	2794	1532	1110	1110	870	995	959	596	591	572	512	451	424	389	385	411
TSP	2A5a	4000	3741	2542	2542	2871	3058	3768	3942	8778	2278	1646	1539	1596	1653	1613	1721
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	76232	71990	66598	66598	64887	63859	62129	61123	62820	52090	52375	47470	46903	46540	43126	43540
BC	1A3c	177	165	160	160	155	157	163	162	179	162	157	153	148	145	146	141

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A1a											1998699	2122321	2059302	2059302	2055397	1992416	1941644	2155749	1849715	1763491	1824701	1799415	1712082	1555050	1547099	1498744
Pb	1A2f											286582	331533	1376754	1376754	312079	357586	664916	516921	527578	231060	432757	212816	374298	251989	171360	169241
Pb	1A3											780000	780000	780000	780000	780000	780000	780000	780000	780000	780000	780000	780000	780000	780000	780000	7795820
Pb	1A3aii(ii)											20000	20000	20000	20000	20000	20000	20000	20000	20000	20000	20000	20000	20000	20000	20000	1880000
Pb	1A3bi											57790000	4220000	4270000	4270000	1550000	760000	740000	780000	770000	750000	690000	660000	620000	580000	580000	580000
Pb	1A4bi											1012865	1137572	1064219	1064219	1042499	1010499	948218	892925	939020	930496	1086041	932681	998969	1019058	845286	908321
Pb	2A3											4800803	5337987	5168942	5168942	5888899	6230848	6013618	5834595	2280465	2206064	1488333	780054	1103087	1435074	902314	261081
Pb	2C1											5442419	5287312	4605543	4605543	5158585	5209123	5591882	7161103	4794842	3454758	3875315	3946982	3546405	3486025	3701507	3908009
Pb	2C5											3770350	3176403	1684875	1684875	515999	787535	888448	602336	430757	173469	240191	716499	215722	1175364	1516738	443711
Cd	1A2d											6306	5214	5537	5537	1803	3096	62659	63348	61085	4443	2326	2104	2361	1883	1716	1790
Cd	1A2gviii											35020	39742	32914	32914	33687	33882	32357	28446	28872	35020	26032	26223	26870	22281	21056	19497
Cd	1A3											50590	50590	50590	50590	50590	50590	50590	50590	50590	50590	50590	50590	50590	50590	50590	84680
Cd	2C5											3660	3755	17588	17588	9214	9856	7915	32114	17094	18629	18298	6462	3054	48792	52610	3783
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	4340000	3920000	3610000	3480000	3520000	3550000	2940000	3000000	2650000	2720000	1291478	1373199	1374331	1374331	1361480	1189184	1314994	1279298	1160916	881549	853979	812884	689669	692949	711592	641704
Hg	1A1a											1344797	1419248	1382796	1382796	1396211	1386866	1302589	1442520	1285739	1225006	1255993	1237437	1187163	1083025	1080824	1039122
Hg	1A1c											56794	71587	72778	72778	77923	81798	79090	85135	82671	56794	79919	82232	82605	78546	76297	79215
Hg	2C1											378292	421427	446534	446534	459177	491788	596869	387604	578203	254830	386637	380944	223689	184823	190456	177467
Hg	2C3											2460	2296	26945	26945	43655	91672	85437	48369	67245	56876	58326	58201	71462	51481	45571	51394
Hg	5C1a											80051	8982	90550	90550	12749	9144	41012	41600	24084	24442	24464	14131	13425	24078	5672	9279

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
HCB	1A1a	2067377										3801783	4046731	3900085	3900085	3854161	3822182	3643726	3996011	3564610	3371240	3553672	3495720	3317880	3080606	3043287	2980050
HCB	1A1b	152241										14	13	13	13	15	16	16	14	33	14	31	33	32	29	30	30
HCB	1A2gviii	221309										86646	86153	60538	60538	53972	50909	44609	44157	43139	86646	33481	32008	30929	29946	33787	32408
HCB	1A4ai	222613										72736	69524	61835	61835	61265	64360	58333	55681	60045	72736	59499	52300	57833	67890	67367	62407
HCB	1A4bi	1034076										11817645	15073458	10887153	10887153	6604870	6249575	4779280	4075775	3191905	2609641	3795985	2117245	1795206	2229711	1480184	1433329
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	4548340										16590533	20098784	15764828	15764828	11453083	11083318	9411093	9063064	7710571	6905801	8169897	6429610	5903734	6094949	5305618	5186845
PCB	1A4ai											55966	51522	43336	43336	36954	33643	32338	28015	26068	55966	22421	18670	19179	20974	21619	19581
PCB	2C1											173461	175063	181468	181468	197052	174222	241447	420806	178156	142361	155411	183865	161896	155380	156903	149798
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	772900000	772000000	741300000	643600000	629800000	622900000	554500000	447800000	457700000	485400000	1961141	1891429	1896794	1896794	1950643	1884505	1982919	2185544	1872579	1644053	1672719	1651893	1586945	1574975	1589748	1636846