Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CZ Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
NOx	1A2f											13759	13674	12856	12057	13154	12534	12853	12726	15872	10119	10268	9491	8655	7451	7587
NMVOC	1B1a											12092	12092	12092	12092	12092	12092	12092	12092	12092	12092	12092	12092	12092	12092	7842
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	156000	134000	115000	99000	91000	86000	81000	81000	80000	75000	84244	85043	82425	78368	76807	74463	74157	75416	74258	69030	67763	66908	66735	68504	69191

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
PM2.5	1A4cii	20	1623	1466	1400	1450	1436	1382	1369	1413	1397	1384	1443	1456	1454	1353
PM10	1A4cii	20	1623	1466	1400	1450	1436	1382	1369	1413	1397	1384	1443	1456	1454	1353
BC	NATIONALTOTAL		0	0				0	0		0	0	0	0	0	3253

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pb	1A2a											5220898	20455299	18825757	12973162	20153510	21173108	13874946	15526783	12058501	9402258	8319086	4122359	6169028	5113519	5276213
Pb	1A2c											101740	78836	434866	751879	1101524	511818	592190	547491	364653	168517	152810	142999	433753	621233	747413
Pb	1A2f											4162821	5674910	6571826	7509661	6213189	6604857	6693713	6364347	2815878	2428610	1925650	996754	1487181	1694785	1068845
Pb	1A3bi											275190000	5630000	5690000	4140000	2060000	1010000	990000	1030000	1020000	1010000	920000	880000	820000	770000	772131
Pb	1A4bi											1012865	1137572	1064219	1099039	1042499	1010499	948218	892925	939020	930496	1086041	932700	1000184	1019656	845383
Pb	2C5											3770350	3176403	1684875	1279504	515999	787535	888448	602336	430757	173469	240191	716499	215722	1175364	1516738
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	269400000	240000000	247000000	232000000	202500000	179700000	165400000	179700000	169200000	157000000	328185278	69264502	58231804	54825924	58550858	56738374	40782194	44862834	31897127	22526579	20430390	16931222	20023828	17975786	23196427
Cd	1A1a											1104322	1151574	1024545	1235629	1346872	1460260	1190706	1289604	684524	1640722	228632	261415	299767	265718	251792
Cd	1A2a											438778	853376	457665	480357	485798	460084	433163	323470	428591	213802	161404	83058	78103	68066	48429
Cd	1A2c											17781	15380	57157	118401	115478	100355	47225	47471	37823	37420	21468	55951	51962	13176	42923
Cd	1A2d											33153	33401	35489	3388	3565	4071	127626	61998	65491	7647	10978	11060	10960	10181	4860
Cd	2C1											7853868	7895779	8553779	9459216	9471569	552795	964252	961516	776164	190330	153328	168239	123853	97938	104733
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	4340000	3920000	3610000	3480000	3520000	3550000	2940000	3000000	2650000	2720000	10010265	10563100	10743974	11874334	11911324	2932361	3167834	3077601	2391510	2402381	835254	848307	780290	711719	722261
Hg	1A1a											939424	973062	841293	1177624	1335219	1590183	1665651	1928357	2125605	1959903	2054590	1829254	1762771	1661887	1595473
Hg	1A1c											8613	10929	9366	35593	33959	31807	341708	339391	344585	11188	12102	10620	181876	175241	59700
Hg	1A2a											204650	274219	209567	260884	265732	100933	298664	202292	238163	192602	267902	212195	166471	165369	136684
Hg	1A2c											226789	221215	303068	289850	370446	351082	130545	187848	110972	241324	226040	93420	60933	68603	114406
Hg	1A2d											92382	81011	85650	12619	34020	35879	64921	17785	25082	32207	30809	25514	14931	14330	22094
Hg	2B10a											191320	178990	85563	175080	163078	121353	96317	96022	301271	80245	106204	110436	105051	76185	62160
Hg	2C1											883365	931942	995197	1056864	1066671	949396	713890	532793	662992	234879	351494	351373	211629	193758	192039

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
HCB	1A4bi	1034076										11817645	15073458	10887153	9002857	6604870	6249575	4779280	4075775	3191905	2609641	3795985	2117273	1797120	2231269	1480891
PCB	1A2d											244841	248658	140683	114923	20220	13057	302123	3244	264346	191201	179194	232534	243943	219877	229415
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	772900000	772000000	741300000	643600000	629800000	622900000	554500000	447800000	457700000	485400000	2982022	2996577	2351985	2012725	1617224	1414308	1699960	1750179	2667889	2355790	2137992	2234583	2403417	2594779	3473837