Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CZ Submission year: 2013

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2011
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2011
PMs: 2000 - 2011

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
NOx	1A4cii												38937	38952	32804	30290	15088	33622	33296	34932	33815	34041	34437
NMVOC	1A1a												5002	6614	6352	10606	6175	5588	6461	5896	5845	5965	6013
NMVOC	1A3e												1995	2065	7244	7646	817	2	2	3	3	10	95
SOx	1B2c																	2836	127	141	4499	1438	6802
CO	1A3e												7745	8054	27556	29837	3374	90	68	76	74	50	29
CO	2C5e												66103	53299	31889	26781	20169	39614	1320	20		1	17

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
PM2.5	1A3e				1394	1283	188	2	1	2	2		0
PM2.5	2A7d				417	349	1740	594	634	645	438	27	20
PM2.5	2C5e				1933	1135	530	720	449	103	0	3	77
PM10	2C5e		1525	1320	3116	1668	730	1278	920	172	1	4	113
TSP	2C5e		2022	1746	4895	2499	860	1989	1562	217	1	5	151

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Pb	1A1a												1471700	1625544	1662865	845830	10420084	7329166	6571409	5350258	4327041	3604715	3985706
Pb	1A2b																3489975	2107584	2107180	2108340	1366050	95943	679746
Pb	1A2fi												28772400	24556832	22994585	24407800	3746671	3309620	3433820	3576057	12834132	2660162	1127004
Pb	1A3																			2018507	996000	879500	879500
Pb	1A3ai(i)												2000000	1700000	42900	25350			15000
Pb	1A3aii(i)												2000000	1700000		390			5000	5000	20000	2000	1000
Pb	1A3bi												10000000	9312000	4917900	2677200	999100	1000000	1010000	1000000	970000	871472	836176
Pb	2C1																		1520339	1363417	4417248	3464555	4452481
Pb	2C2																		4545778	4736941	189478	31857
Pb	2C5e													6133192	7088414	6923005	5967208	6656717	2050000			42238	65411
Pb	6Cb												3213000	1597131	360429	96425	40938	55425	21000	20425	10085	9474	18815
Cd	1A1a												360500	471955	400639	482946	1169218	1166337	1019202	1881365	1622337	220390	273206
Cd	1A2a																380241	397459	403231	336727	281206	215977	76763
Cd	1A2b																92505	112904	112899	112814	267324	7378	20350
Cd	1A2fi												1667060	680001	537923	496000	74936	128534	139122	130973	216014	82209	94180
Cd	1A4ai												192500	159653	16345	6001	62100	5533	22546	5432	8145	20000	15047
Cd	2C1																		1056	947	808013	135678	159636
Cd	2C2																		1075363	1120586	1504	3187
Cd	2C5e													1132299	1167212	1242812	1097532	1222252				164	523
Cd	FUTOTAL																			3761642	3368430	886793	814313
Cd	GRIDTOTAL														2239692	2368759	3111988	3177622	2908826	3761642	3368430	886793	814313
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	4340000	3920000	3610000	3480000	3520000	3550000	2940000	3000000	2650000	2720000	2850000	2605190	2736000	2239692	2368759	3111988	3177622	2908916	3761642	3368430	884222	811928
Hg	1A1a												293200	347439	454169	294883	1514673	1522433	1432897	1924597	1914936	2034061	1839549
Hg	1A1c												200	120994		21927	31537	338498	338603	342707	8390	116685	8848
Hg	1A2b																9687	167	129	397	683278	16621	88092
Hg	1A2fi												1728240	1372391	597676	1280965	1121378	1228020	1420095	1186314	1142077	218788	208137
Hg	1A4ai												33300	234295	180363	43662	175040	96152	45260	33023	25874	33723	23399
Hg	2C1																		57473	51541	37975	326639	371536
Hg	2C5e													51060	56752	58589	50339	56492					11
Hg	6Cb												672500	250564	75558	27140	22119	66434	11170	17496	6771	7935	20259
Hg	GRIDTOTAL														1788452	2091740	3765076	3847543	3922234	4114623	4295311	3480370	3266735
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	7520000	7420000	7280000	7460000	7170000	7400000	5860000	5540000	5160000	3660000	3840000	3267360	2756000	1788452	2091740	3765076	3847543	3922234	4114623	4295311	3480370	3266741

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
DIOX	1A1a												26610	2739	2792	3753	5393	3053	3	3	7770	5325	7528
DIOX	2C2																		18632	19415	0	316
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	1252000	1220000	1220000	1140000	1135000	1135000	921500	830200	766700	643200	743800	620414	177313	113968	187333	178569	174779	168620	150261	140537	129092	104504
HCB	1A2b	420716															1187191	507084	506907	507171	82039	0
HCB	GRIDTOTAL	4548340													72278	4262389	4667143	3685187	3870431	3740531	2667792	2677687	2485487
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	4548340												4057000	72278	4262389	4667143	3685187	3870431	3740531	2667792	2688829	2485487
HCB	SNAPTOTAL														72278	4262389	4667143	3685187	3870431