Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA

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Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: CY      Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	1A2f	1621	1529	1652	1806	1886	1807	1944	1870	1769	1777	1831	1791	1852	1829	1978	1940	2022	1991	2125	1807	1582	1464	674	923	1118	1054	1009	1067	992	957	1055
NOx	1A3di(i)	4264	4199	4425	3847	4907	5419	6929	7550	7304	11648	14722	14677	10727	9460	3828	22872	21957	20385	18967	16557	14259	15335	14994	18356	17872	18990	22887	19863	21147	21644	21300
NMVOC	1A1a	52	54	62	67	70	64	68	72	78	82	87	86	90	96	100	106	110	113	117	110	100	179	284	63	75	81	85	76	78	76	61
NMVOC	1A3di(i)	184	178	188	160	199	221	288	313	312	491	616	613	442	396	171	937	943	876	805	697	596	635	628	768	745	779	927	820	877	902	892
SOx	1A2f	483	455	493	538	563	539	581	559	529	530	547	535	552	544	587	575	600	591	701	636	607	515	463	638	761	727	681	719	665	636	704
SOx	1A3bii	2409	2371	3068	3204	3130	3710	3480	3623	4028	4137	3632	4134	3759	3580	1304	21	20	19	18	4	4	3	3	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3
SOx	1A3bii(fu)	2409	2371	3068	3204	3130	3710	3480	3623	4028	4137	3632	4134	3759	3580	1304	21	20	19	18	4	4	3	3	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3
SOx	1A3biii	1553	1454	1792	1791	1678	1915	1886	2000	1989	2012	2006	2121	1933	1890	691	11	11	12	12	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	1	2	2
SOx	1A3biii(fu)	1553	1454	1792	1791	1678	1915	1886	2000	1989	2012	2006	2121	1933	1890	691	11	11	12	12	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	1	2	2
NH3	3B1b	331	327	327	364	377	397	439	379	329	310	315	298	328	327	351	339	330	320	328	316	319	335	334	330	347	331	349	369	391	391	437
NH3	3Da1	884	834	1065	934	953	846	898	687	717	728	514	506	539	479	535	486	658	508	473	455	284	375	386	450	639	459	558	449	507	598	598
CO	1A2f	1893	1785	1930	2110	2205	2112	2272	2187	2068	2078	2141	2095	2167	2139	2310	2267	2361	2325	2374	1957	1639	1584	1440	2101	2686	2425	2434	2544	2368	2244	2518
CO	1A3di(i)	429	414	437	370	459	511	666	725	725	1140	1428	1421	1021	918	400	2161	2190	2034	1865	1611	1378	1465	1451	1774	1719	1792	2124	1886	2014	2074	2055

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM2.5	1A3biii	188	182	163	157	148	138	125	102	94	85	83	73	64	54	55	46	52	49	38	57	21
PM2.5	1A3biii(fu)	188	182	163	157	148	138	125	102	94	85	83	73	64	54	55	46	52	49	38	57	21
PM2.5	1A3di(i)	949	962	713	606	203	1540	1330	1218	1167	1034	923	995	930	1144	1119	1225	1457	1193	1230	1247	1239
PM2.5	2A1	186	181	186	183	196	191	200	197	198	164	136	135	33	49	63	57	57	60	55	52	59
PM2.5	2D3b	197	128	105	67	40	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A3biii	188	182	163	157	148	138	125	102	94	85	83	73	64	54	55	46	52	49	38	57	21
PM10	1A3biii(fu)	188	182	163	157	148	138	125	102	94	85	83	73	64	54	55	46	52	49	38	57	21
PM10	1A3di(i)	1060	1074	797	677	228	1720	1487	1362	1304	1155	1031	1111	1039	1278	1250	1369	1627	1333	1375	1394	1386
PM10	2A1	334	326	335	329	353	345	361	355	357	296	244	243	53	79	101	91	91	95	88	83	94
PM10	2D3b	846	551	450	285	171	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1
TSP	1A3di(i)	1060	1074	797	677	228	1720	1487	1362	1304	1155	1031	1111	1039	1278	1250	1369	1627	1333	1375	1394	1386
TSP	2A1	371	362	372	365	392	383	401	394	397	329	271	270	53	79	102	92	92	96	89	84	95
TSP	2D3b	3664	2386	1951	1236	742	6	5	5	5	8	11	10	8	4	2	2	2	2	3	2	2
BC	1A2f	70	72	70	77	81	84	78	83	96	90	77	55	13	18	24	25	25	31	33	33	41
BC	1A2gviii	11	11	11	11	11	13	16	18	3	2	3	2	1	2	2	1	1	2	5	6	5
BC	1A3biii	100	97	88	86	82	77	71	62	58	53	52	46	40	34	33	29	33	31	25	37	14
BC	1A3biii(fu)	100	97	88	86	82	77	71	62	58	53	52	46	40	34	33	29	33	31	25	37	14
BC	1A3di(i)	139	140	104	90	34	222	203	188	177	156	136	147	141	173	170	183	220	187	197	201	198
BC	1A4bi	4	4	4	3	2	3	2	5	4	3	2	2	4	4	3	5	7	6	4	4	3

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A3bi	20679577	21680930	21728978	21217251	22540337	22496584	22062485	21550680	20443986	19695810	17809816	17181947	15704610	13838887	5024683	479	512	558	594	611	623	618	596	560	548	560	578	582	572	563	487
Pb	1A3bi(fu)	20679577	21680930	21728978	21217251	22540337	22496584	22062485	21550680	20443986	19695810	17809816	17181947	15704610	13838887	5024683	479	512	558	594	611	623	618	596	560	548	560	578	582	572	563	487
Pb	1A3bii	2630577	2726581	2583877	2353224	2339300	2247853	2096001	1914060	1663663	1476320	1212313	1079180	853521	680727	192250	118	108	107	108	104	106	99	86	75	70	74	80	82	86	74	78
Pb	1A3bii(fu)	2630577	2726581	2583877	2353224	2339300	2247853	2096001	1914060	1663663	1476320	1212313	1079180	853521	680727	192250	118	108	107	108	104	106	99	86	75	70	74	80	82	86	74	78
Pb	1A3biv	1190429	1162470	1125984	1045057	1064493	1018909	938929	859379	758954	688293	583220	551139	475461	410244	129537	16	16	18	18	18	17	16	16	14	14	14	13	13	12	12	8
Pb	1A3biv(fu)	1190429	1162470	1125984	1045057	1064493	1018909	938929	859379	758954	688293	583220	551139	475461	410244	129537	16	16	18	18	18	17	16	16	14	14	14	13	13	12	12	8
Pb	1A3di(i)	9240	9079	9569	8300	10559	11669	14949	16289	15889	25419	32239	32208	23189	20519	8370	49209	47979	44279	40956	35540	30876	32727	31826	38980	37796	39833	46908	40792	43087	44246	44011
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	24928878	25993795	25918215	25118562	26465712	26281446	25638083	24878414	23442231	22454445	20212055	19420910	17649053	15544588	5978071	643007	630987	655514	674226	621206	545588	573203	490992	370157	369762	378814	404245	415045	412407	401130	374956
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	24928878	25993795	25918215	25118562	26465712	26281446	25638083	24878414	23442231	22454445	20212055	19420910	17649053	15544588	5978071	643007	630987	655514	674226	621206	545588	573203	490992	370157	369762	378814	404245	415045	412407	401130	374956
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	24928878	25993795	25918215	25118562	26465712	26281446	25638083	24878414	23442231	22454445	20212055	19420910	17649053	15544588	5978071	643007	630987	655514	674226	621206	545588	573203	490992	370157	369762	378814	404245	415045	412407	401130	374956
Cd	1A3di(i)	920	920	970	860	1120	1230	1550	1690	1610	2620	3360	3370	2430	2120	810	5170	4860	4458	4159	3624	3195	3378	3229	3960	3842	4092	4789	4081	4262	4365	4359
Cd	2G	5371	5371	5840	1616	1616	4723	5014	5596	5696	7973	14979	4615	4320	3113	4629	4034	2522	2627	2555	2841	3034	2475	2693	2111	841	1563	1464	1635	1444	1496	1268
Hg	1A3di(i)	1400	1320	1390	1140	1360	1530	2050	2230	2310	3540	4360	4310	3090	2840	1350	6510	6980	6538	5920	5086	4255	4540	4613	5631	5450	5594	6692	6113	6625	6847	6748

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	1A3di(i)	19	20	21	19	25	27	34	37	34	57	74	74	54	46	16	114	103	94	89	77	70	73	69	84	82	88	103	85	88	90	90
HCB	1A2f	5744	5411	5897	6425	6743	6461	6976	6711	6357	6355	6567	6412	6586	6464	6942	6774	7093	6970	7117	5902	4940	4772	4385	6525	8386	7547	7582	7898	7334	6895	7791
HCB	1A3di(i)	6680	6640	6999	6160	7959	8759	11099	12099	11620	18799	24019	24058	17339	15199	5940	36859	35079	32243	29996	26099	22895	24229	23292	28554	27700	29396	34475	29583	31018	31793	31709
PCB	1A2f	25723	24231	26410	28774	30196	28934	31239	30053	28468	28459	29411	28715	29493	28948	31087	30335	31766	31214	31442	26035	21487	21368	19637	29220	37553	33799	33954	35368	32825	30876	34889
PCB	1A3di(i)	20291	21278	22456	21050	28954	31348	37997	41493	37238	63303	83406	84430	61100	51526	16415	130793	112325	101354	96799	85230	77962	81935	74913	92211	89657	98076	112980	91215	92302	93731	94733
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	34458	33208	35650	38220	39830	38743	41206	40162	38706	38822	39854	39273	40171	31677	31306	33091	36471	37754	34066	28869	25945	26030	24173	39416	41714	37325	37768	40297	36746	34195	38088
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	34458	33208	35650	38220	39830	38743	41206	40162	38706	38822	39854	39273	40171	31677	31306	33091	36471	37754	34066	28869	25945	26030	24173	39416	41714	37325	37768	40297	36746	34195	38088
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	34458	33208	35650	38220	39830	38743	41206	40162	38706	38822	39854	39273	40171	31677	31306	33091	36471	37754	34066	28869	25945	26030	24173	39416	41714	37325	37768	40297	36746	34195	38088