Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CY Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A2f	1621	1529	1652	1806	1886	1807	1944	1870	1769	1777	1831	1791	1852	1829	1978	1940	2022	1991	2125	1807	1582	1464	674	923	1118	1054	1009	1067	992	955
NMVOC	1A3biv	1434	1456	1430	1382	1450	1444	1440	1385	1286	1194	1094	1017	832	818	775	772	554	1026	953	845	752	712	539	580	533	527	511	480	444	420
NMVOC	1A3biv(fu)	1434	1456	1430	1382	1450	1444	1440	1385	1286	1194	1094	1017	832	818	775	772	554	1026	953	845	752	712	539	580	533	527	511	480	444	420
SOx	1A2f	483	455	493	538	563	539	581	559	529	530	547	535	552	544	587	575	600	591	701	636	607	515	463	638	761	727	681	719	665	635
SOx	1A3bi	1084	1060	1152	1162	1193	1248	1300	1381	1436	1459	1355	1446	1362	1229	495	34	36	37	39	8	8	8	8	7	7	7	8	8	8	8
SOx	1A3bi(fu)	1084	1060	1152	1162	1193	1248	1300	1381	1436	1459	1355	1446	1362	1229	495	34	36	37	39	8	8	8	8	7	7	7	8	8	8	8
SOx	1A3bii	2005	2013	2554	2718	2866	3194	3324	3495	3771	3871	3572	3731	3448	3251	1177	19	17	18	17	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	3	3	3	3
SOx	1A3bii(fu)	2005	2013	2554	2718	2866	3194	3324	3495	3771	3871	3572	3731	3448	3251	1177	19	17	18	17	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	3	3	3	3
SOx	1A3biii	1597	1473	1724	1720	1689	1786	1860	1924	1984	1972	1817	1871	1731	1796	685	11	11	13	12	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
SOx	1A3biii(fu)	1597	1473	1724	1720	1689	1786	1860	1924	1984	1972	1817	1871	1731	1796	685	11	11	13	12	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
NH3	3B1b	331	327	327	364	377	397	439	379	329	310	315	298	328	327	351	339	330	320	328	316	319	335	334	330	347	330	347	369	391	418
NH3	3Da1	884	834	1065	934	953	846	898	687	717	728	514	506	539	479	535	486	658	508	473	455	284	375	386	398	573	413	477	304	358	358
CO	1A2f	1893	1785	1930	2110	2205	2112	2272	2187	2068	2078	2141	2095	2167	2139	2310	2267	2361	2325	2374	1957	1639	1584	1440	2101	2686	2425	2434	2544	2368	2244

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	2A1	186	181	186	183	196	191	200	197	198	164	136	135	33	49	63	57	57	60	55	52
PM2.5	2D3b	197	128	105	67	40	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	2A1	334	326	335	329	353	345	361	355	357	296	244	243	53	79	101	91	91	95	88	83
PM10	2D3b	846	551	450	285	171	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	1	1	1
TSP	2A1	371	362	372	365	392	383	401	394	397	329	271	270	53	79	102	92	92	96	89	84
TSP	2D3b	3664	2386	1951	1236	742	6	5	5	5	8	11	10	8	4	2	2	2	2	3	3
BC	1A2gviii	11	11	11	11	11	13	16	18	3	2	3	2	1	2	2	1	1	2	5	5

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A3bi	21175163	22127129	22214020	21659441	22991627	22921623	22436288	21885187	20763329	19996607	18060524	17467105	15963392	14071382	5081607	492	525	552	585	603	618	610	594	552	540	550	568	571	562	558
Pb	1A3bi(fu)	21175163	22127129	22214020	21659441	22991627	22921623	22436288	21885187	20763329	19996607	18060524	17467105	15963392	14071382	5081607	492	525	552	585	603	618	610	594	552	540	550	568	571	562	558
Pb	1A3bii	2294056	2406454	2233993	2021459	1992378	1909966	1775115	1612786	1369220	1194809	973162	822050	638152	493201	143835	103	95	105	100	95	94	89	75	67	63	68	74	75	74	75
Pb	1A3bii(fu)	2294056	2406454	2233993	2021459	1992378	1909966	1775115	1612786	1369220	1194809	973162	822050	638152	493201	143835	103	95	105	100	95	94	89	75	67	63	68	74	75	74	75
Pb	1A3biv	994402	996473	950168	893037	915671	886474	843815	787204	698642	634618	539111	488863	403132	338984	112755	14	13	22	22	21	19	19	15	17	16	16	17	16	15	15
Pb	1A3biv(fu)	994402	996473	950168	893037	915671	886474	843815	787204	698642	634618	539111	488863	403132	338984	112755	14	13	22	22	21	19	19	15	17	16	16	17	16	15	15
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	24907898	25971547	25889750	25090080	26435834	26249671	25610259	24852173	23415861	22427585	20185112	19389823	17618189	15513824	5957271	626962	615083	647485	665980	612469	536478	564589	483507	363567	362688	371221	396921	403871	409709	403030
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	24907898	25971547	25889750	25090080	26435834	26249671	25610259	24852173	23415861	22427585	20185112	19389823	17618189	15513824	5957271	626962	615083	647485	665980	612469	536478	564589	483507	363567	362688	371221	396921	403871	409709	403030
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	24907898	25971547	25889750	25090080	26435834	26249671	25610259	24852173	23415861	22427585	20185112	19389823	17618189	15513824	5957271	626962	615083	647485	665980	612469	536478	564589	483507	363567	362688	371221	396921	403871	409709	403030
Cd	2G	5371	5371	5840	1616	1616	4723	5014	5596	5696	7973	14979	4615	4320	3113	4629	4034	2522	2627	2555	2841	3034	2475	2693	2111	841	1930	1585	1697	1554	1497

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
HCB	1A2f	5744	5411	5897	6425	6743	6461	6976	6711	6357	6355	6567	6412	6586	6464	6942	6774	7093	6970	7117	5902	4940	4772	4385	6525	8386	7547	7582	7898	7334	6899
PCB	1A2f	25723	24231	26410	28774	30196	28934	31239	30053	28468	28459	29411	28715	29493	28948	31087	30335	31766	31214	31442	26035	21487	21368	19637	29220	37553	33799	33954	35368	32825	30877