Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CY Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	1A2f	1621	1529	1652	1806	1886	1807	1944	1870	1769	1777	1831	1791	1852	1829	1978	1940	2022	1991	2125	1807	1582	1464	1325	1891	2363	2174	2134	2239	2091
SOx	1A2f	483	455	493	538	563	539	581	559	529	530	547	535	552	544	587	575	600	591	701	636	607	515	463	638	761	727	681	719	676
SOx	1A3bi	1100	1077	1172	1182	1215	1274	1329	1412	1471	1495	1391	1483	1396	1262	507	35	36	40	42	9	9	9	8	8	8	8	8	9	9
SOx	1A3bi(fu)	1100	1077	1172	1182	1215	1274	1329	1412	1471	1495	1391	1483	1396	1262	507	35	36	40	42	9	9	9	8	8	8	8	8	9	9
SOx	1A3bii	1934	1945	2472	2630	2779	3101	3232	3393	3663	3763	3476	3626	3350	3157	1143	19	17	17	16	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
SOx	1A3bii(fu)	1934	1945	2472	2630	2779	3101	3232	3393	3663	3763	3476	3626	3350	3157	1143	19	17	17	16	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
SOx	1A3biii	1652	1525	1786	1788	1755	1855	1925	1997	2058	2045	1879	1940	1797	1858	708	12	11	12	13	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
SOx	1A3biii(fu)	1652	1525	1786	1788	1755	1855	1925	1997	2058	2045	1879	1940	1797	1858	708	12	11	12	13	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
NH3	3B1b	301	297	298	331	343	360	399	344	298	282	286	271	298	297	319	308	300	291	299	288	292	306	306	303	319	305	320	341	363
NH3	3Da1	884	834	1065	934	953	846	898	687	717	728	514	506	539	479	535	486	658	508	473	455	284	375	386	456	637	429	513	535	535
CO	1A1a	342	354	408	439	459	418	444	470	513	541	569	565	588	632	659	697	719	743	252	469	460	571	561	428	585	444	448	366	317
CO	1A2f	1893	1785	1930	2110	2205	2112	2272	2187	2068	2078	2141	2095	2167	2139	2310	2267	2361	2325	2374	1957	1639	1584	1440	2101	2686	2425	2434	2544	2369

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM2.5	1A2f	265	277	278	303	322	328	303	305	324	265	248	157	93	128	205	238	250	336	425
PM2.5	2A1	186	181	186	183	196	191	200	197	198	164	136	135	33	50	64	58	58	60	56
PM2.5	2D3b	197	128	105	67	40	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A2f	277	289	290	316	336	343	316	317	335	272	256	160	94	129	208	242	253	343	437
PM10	2A1	334	326	335	329	353	345	361	355	357	296	244	243	53	79	102	92	92	96	89
PM10	2D3b	846	551	450	285	171	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
TSP	1A2f	286	300	301	328	348	355	327	328	345	280	264	165	95	130	213	250	261	356	456
TSP	2A1	371	362	372	365	392	383	401	394	397	329	271	270	54	80	103	93	93	97	90
TSP	2D3b	3664	2386	1951	1236	742	6	5	5	5	8	11	10	8	4	2	2	2	2	2
BC	1A2f	70	72	70	77	81	84	78	83	96	90	77	55	43	61	85	86	91	110	118
BC	1A2gviii	11	11	11	11	11	13	16	18	3	2	3	2	1	2	2	1	1	2	2

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A3bi	21181141	22133796	22221421	21667564	23000589	22931055	22445906	21896200	20775498	20009318	18073253	17480296	15976066	14083529	5086391	493	526	574	609	627	640	633	606	567	555	568	587	593	580
Pb	1A3bi(fu)	21181141	22133796	22221421	21667564	23000589	22931055	22445906	21896200	20775498	20009318	18073253	17480296	15976066	14083529	5086391	493	526	574	609	627	640	633	606	567	555	568	587	593	580
Pb	1A3bii	2294682	2407154	2234712	2022193	1993130	1910728	1775855	1613571	1369996	1195544	973827	822653	638646	493617	143966	101	92	91	88	84	87	78	68	58	55	55	60	60	60
Pb	1A3bii(fu)	2294682	2407154	2234712	2022193	1993130	1910728	1775855	1613571	1369996	1195544	973827	822653	638646	493617	143966	101	92	91	88	84	87	78	68	58	55	55	60	60	60
Pb	1A3biv	994665	996754	950466	893355	916010	886821	844160	787582	699033	635004	539476	489219	403442	339269	112860	14	13	13	14	14	13	13	14	13	12	12	13	13	12
Pb	1A3biv(fu)	994665	996754	950466	893355	916010	886821	844160	787582	699033	635004	539476	489219	403442	339269	112860	14	13	13	14	14	13	13	14	13	12	12	13	13	12
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	24901342	25965539	25881023	25081149	26426540	26239291	25599046	24841233	23404292	22415731	20172449	19377367	17605671	15501067	5937647	603040	592761	614032	632729	581476	505339	535325	458988	343441	344835	351703	375535	384897	387727
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	24901342	25965539	25881023	25081149	26426540	26239291	25599046	24841233	23404292	22415731	20172449	19377367	17605671	15501067	5937647	603040	592761	614032	632729	581476	505339	535325	458988	343441	344835	351703	375535	384897	387727
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	24901342	25965539	25881023	25081149	26426540	26239291	25599046	24841233	23404292	22415731	20172449	19377367	17605671	15501067	5937647	603040	592761	614032	632729	581476	505339	535325	458988	343441	344835	351703	375535	384897	387727
Cd	2G	5371	5371	5840	1616	1616	4723	5014	5596	5696	7973	14979	4615	4320	3113	4629	4034	2522	2627	2555	2841	3034	2475	2693	2111	841	1930	1585	1697	1554

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
HCB	1A2f	5744	5411	5897	6425	6743	6461	6976	6711	6357	6355	6567	6412	6586	6464	6942	6774	7093	6970	7117	5902	4940	4772	4385	6525	8386	7547	7582	7898	7330
PCB	1A2f	25723	24231	26410	28774	30196	28934	31239	30053	28468	28459	29411	28715	29493	28948	31087	30335	31766	31214	31442	26035	21487	21368	19637	29220	37553	33799	33954	35368	32825