Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CY Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A2f	1621	1529	1652	1806	1886	1807	1944	1870	1769	1777	1831	1791	1852	1829	1978	1940	2022	1991	2125	1807	1582	1464	1325	1891	2363	2174	2190
NOx	1A3ai(i)	612	619	627	634	642	649	657	665	672	680	687	695	702	710	717	725	733	736	774	745	737	741	718	681	696	677	811
SOx	1A2f	483	455	493	538	563	539	581	559	529	530	547	535	552	544	587	575	600	591	701	636	607	515	463	638	761	727	733
SOx	1A3bi	1059	1086	1204	1212	1311	1264	1322	1400	1453	1493	1496	1512	1470	1322	504	34	36	39	41	9	9	9	8	8	8	8	8
SOx	1A3bii	1837	2057	2594	2708	3173	3088	3230	3378	3619	3784	3879	3752	3620	3346	1140	19	17	16	16	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2
SOx	1A3biii	1569	1619	1878	1843	2009	1849	1927	1992	2038	2062	2106	2015	1950	1978	710	12	11	12	13	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2
NH3	3B1b	301	297	298	331	343	360	399	344	298	282	286	271	298	297	319	308	300	291	299	288	292	306	306	303	319	305	322
CO	1A1a	342	354	408	439	459	418	444	470	513	541	569	565	588	632	659	697	719	743	252	469	460	571	561	428	585	444	448
CO	1A2f	1893	1785	1930	2110	2205	2112	2272	2187	2068	2078	2141	2095	2167	2139	2310	2267	2361	2325	2374	1957	1639	1584	1440	2101	2686	2425	2441

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	1A2f	265	277	278	303	322	328	303	305	324	265	248	157	93	128	205	238	258
PM2.5	2A1	183	179	192	216	230	238	234	247	248	196	187	157	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	2D3b	197	128	105	67	40	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A2f	277	289	290	316	336	343	316	317	335	272	256	160	94	129	208	242	262
PM10	2A1	330	322	346	388	415	429	422	445	446	352	337	282	2	2	1	1	2
PM10	2D3b	846	551	450	285	171	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	1	0	0	0
TSP	1A2f	286	300	301	328	348	355	327	328	345	279	264	165	95	130	213	250	270
TSP	2A1	367	358	385	431	461	476	468	494	495	391	374	314	2	2	1	1	2
TSP	2D3b	3664	2386	1951	1236	742	6	5	5	5	8	11	10	8	4	2	2	2
BC	1A2f	70	72	70	77	81	84	78	83	96	90	77	55	43	61	85	86	94
BC	1A2gviii	11	11	11	11	11	13	16	18	3	2	3	2	1	2	2	1	1

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A3biv	1312791	1247888	1264154	1225371	1208020	1187218	1138187	1072585	974636	894242	785163	726953	627560	596219	317607	203376	186855	192186	197755	199057	197904	196511	205082	194032	193699	195369	209454
Cd	1A2f	9994	9414	10260	11179	11730	11240	12135	11674	11058	11056	11425	11155	11458	11247	12078	11786	12341	12127	12466	10347	8719	8302	7629	11350	14586	13128	13189
Cd	2G	5371	5371	5840	1616	1616	4723	5014	5596	5696	7973	14979	4615	4320	3113	4629	4034	2522	2627	2555	2841	3034	2475	2693	2111	841	1930	1585
Hg	1A2f	61268	57716	62890	68527	71900	68897	74377	71552	67775	67765	70029	68367	70233	68951	74061	72262	75660	74351	74934	62056	51238	50908	46771	69550	89365	80442	80818

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A1a	57	59	67	73	76	69	74	78	85	90	94	94	97	105	109	115	119	123	128	119	107	110	97	66	81	88	99
HCB	1A2f	5744	5411	5897	6425	6743	6461	6976	6711	6357	6355	6567	6412	6586	6464	6942	6774	7093	6970	7117	5902	4940	4772	4385	6525	8386	7547	7582
PCB	1A2f	25723	24231	26410	28774	30196	28934	31239	30053	28468	28459	29411	28715	29493	28948	31087	30335	31766	31214	31442	26035	21487	21368	19637	29220	37553	33799	33954