Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CY Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A1a	3213	3332	3833	4131	4319	3931	4177	4417	4821	5090	5354	5314	5534	5948	6196	6556	6762	7079	6318	7424	6316	9689	10941	6311	6952	4845
NOx	1A2f	1621	1529	1652	1806	1886	1807	1944	1870	1769	1777	1831	1791	1852	1829	1978	1940	2022	1991	2125	1807	1582	1464	1325	1891	2363	2138
NOx	1A3di(i)	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1477	1402	1233	1218	1431	1408	1359	1326	1282	1205	1138	642	637	999	999
NMVOC	1A1a	52	54	62	67	70	64	68	72	78	82	87	86	90	96	100	106	110	113	117	110	100	179	284	63	75	81
NMVOC	1A1b	410	490	460	500	570	530	490	670	690	750	690	730	680	730	250
NMVOC	2D3h	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	224	230	260	211	198	233	236	249	219	306	223	241	328	260	203	256	247
SOx	1A2f	483	455	493	538	563	539	581	559	529	530	547	535	552	544	587	575	600	591	701	636	607	515	463	638	761	694
SOx	1A3	4484	4780	5696	5782	6511	6219	6496	6786	7124	7353	7494	7291	7051	6655	2358	65	65	69	71	14	14	14	13	12	12	12
SOx	1A3bi	1059	1086	1204	1212	1311	1264	1322	1400	1453	1493	1496	1512	1470	1322	504	34	36	39	41	9	9	9	8	8	8	8
SOx	1A3bii	1837	2057	2594	2708	3173	3088	3230	3378	3619	3784	3879	3752	3620	3346	1140	19	17	16	16	3	3	3	2	2	2	2
SOx	1A3biii	1569	1619	1878	1843	2009	1849	1927	1992	2038	2062	2106	2015	1950	1978	710	12	11	12	13	3	3	3	2	2	2	2
SOx	1A3di(i)	1479	1479	1479	1479	1479	1479	1479	1479	1479	1479	1479	1409	1322	1157	1141	1344	1328	1280	1242	1196	1135	1066	613	608	930	930
NH3	3B1a	643	664	686	736	791	846	784	732	684	690	675	699	753	768	748	706	687	675	678	706	713	732	733	747	771	1074
CO	1A1a	342	354	408	439	459	418	444	470	513	541	569	565	588	632	659	697	719	743	249	460	448	555	545	412	568	427
CO	1A2f	1893	1785	1930	2110	2205	2112	2272	2187	2068	2078	2141	2095	2167	2139	2310	2267	2361	2325	2374	1957	1639	1584	1440	2101	2686	2421

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	2D3b	197	128	105	67	40	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
PM10	2D3b	846	551	450	285	171	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	1	0	0
TSP	2D3b	3664	2386	1951	1236	742	6	5	5	5	8	11	10	8	4	2	2
BC	1A2gviii	11	11	11	11	11	13	16	18	3	2	3	2	1	2	3	2

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A3biv	1312791	1247888	1264154	1225371	1208020	1187218	1138187	1072585	974636	894242	785163	726953	627560	596219	317607	203376	186855	192186	197755	199057	197904	196511	205274	194210	193866	195369
Cd	1A2f	9994	9414	10260	11179	11730	11240	12135	11674	11058	11056	11425	11155	11458	11247	12078	11786	12341	12127	12466	10347	8719	8302	7629	11350	14586	13128
Cd	2G	5371	5371	5840	1616	1616	4723	5014	5596	5696	7973	14979	4615	4320	3113	4629	4034	2522	2627	2555	2841	3034	2475	2693	2111	841	1930
Cd	5C1biii	3439	3533	3627	3707	3780	3844	3903	3955	4000	4045	4086	4132	4180	1000
Hg	1A2f	61268	57716	62890	68527	71900	68897	74377	71552	67775	67765	70029	68367	70233	68951	74061	72262	75660	74351	74934	62056	51238	50908	46771	69550	89365	80434
Hg	5C1biii	18484	18988	19495	19926	20319	20663	20977	21258	21500	21739	21960	22212	22470	5375

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A1a	57	59	67	73	76	69	74	78	85	90	94	94	97	105	109	115	119	123	128	119	107	110	97	66	81	87
DIOX	5C1biii	1719	1766	1813	1854	1890	1922	1951	1977	2000	2022	2043	2066	2090	500
HCB	1A2f	5744	5411	5897	6425	6743	6461	6976	6711	6357	6355	6567	6412	6586	6464	6942	6774	7093	6970	7117	5902	4940	4772	4385	6525	8386	7547
HCB	5C1biii	42986	44157	45336	46339	47254	48052	48785	49436	50000	50556	51069	51655	52255	12500
PCB	1A2f	25723	24231	26410	28774	30196	28934	31239	30053	28468	28459	29411	28715	29493	28948	31087	30335	31766	31214	31442	26035	21487	21368	19637	29220	37553	33799
PCB	5C1biii	8597	8831	9067	9268	9451	9610	9757	9887	10000	10111	10214	10331	10451	2500