Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CY Submission year: 2015

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2013
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2013
PMs: 2000 - 2013

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
NOx	1A1a	3213	3332	3833	4131	4319	3931	4177	4417	4821	5090	5354	5314	5534	5948	6196	6556	6762	7079	6318	7424	6316	9689	10941	6311
NOx	1A3	9005	9039	10090	9991	10699	10003	10068	10086	10107	10093	10935	10278	10132	10231	9541	9114	8625	8830	8683	7790	7663	7187	6350	5299
NOx	1A3bi	3649	3371	3392	3294	3291	3136	3055	2967	2817	2716	2650	2590	2555	2517	2263	2011	1923	1958	1885	1729	1674	1544	1389	1229
NOx	1A3biii	2987	3084	3579	3505	3787	3457	3570	3642	3706	3738	4259	3937	3926	4159	4028	4009	3865	4145	4288	3854	3793	3703	3460	2830
NOx	1A3di(i)	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1477	1402	1233	1218	1431	1408	1359	1326	1282	1205	1138	1060	637
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	17117	17269	19345	19636	20789	19577	20088	20273	20628	21025	22300	21655	21702	21982	21523	21442	21238	21715	20366	19948	18504	21222	21333	16164
NMVOC	1A1a	52	54	62	67	70	64	68	72	78	82	87	86	90	96	100	106	110	113	117	153	189	349	497	198
NMVOC	1A1b	410	490	460	500	570	530	490	670	690	750	690	730	680	730	250
NMVOC	1A3biii	452	463	537	526	550	486	487	476	466	453	489	427	402	402	374	378	355	342	332	282	258	238	216	170
NMVOC	1B2av	716	708	759	766	784	806	819	840	862	892	908	963	1007	1142	1244	1331	872	950	1087	1119	1100	1084	990	722
NMVOC	2D3a	1585	144	148	151	154	157	159	161	163	165	167	169	171	173	175	178	181	186	190	196	201	206	207	205
NMVOC	3B1b	287	284	284	316	328	344	381	329	285	269	273	260	286	294	307	296	288	280	291	282	286	298	315	289
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	17229	14944	15360	15327	15582	15022	14754	14640	13854	13399	12999	12530	12778	13237	12717	12216	11837	11669	10505	9768	9988	7951	7765	6681
SOx	1A3	4489	4785	5700	5786	6516	6224	6500	6790	7128	7356	7497	7294	7053	6657	2359	65	66	69	71	14	14	14	13	12
SOx	1A3bi	1062	1089	1208	1236	1357	1324	1402	1510	1573	1621	1628	1638	1588	1426	540	35	37	40	42	9	9	9	8	8
SOx	1A3bii	1837	2058	2595	2697	3148	3054	3183	3311	3545	3703	3796	3673	3545	3283	1119	18	17	16	15	3	3	3	2	2
SOx	1A3biii	1569	1619	1878	1835	1993	1828	1898	1952	1995	2018	2060	1971	1909	1940	696	11	11	12	13	2	2	2	2	2
SOx	1A3di(i)	1479	1479	1479	1479	1479	1479	1479	1479	1479	1479	1479	1409	1322	1157	1141	1344	1328	1280	1242	1196	1135	1066	989	608
NH3	1A3	63	72	87	95	103	114	123	135	150	166	179	191	201	231	231	298	295	300	299	297	292	278	252	227
NH3	1A3bi	61	69	84	91	100	110	118	130	145	160	173	186	196	226	226	292	290	295	294	292	287	273	247	223
NH3	3B1b	297	294	294	326	338	356	393	340	295	278	282	269	295	304	317	306	298	289	301	291	295	308	326	299
CO	1A1a	342	354	408	439	459	418	444	470	513	541	569	565	588	632	659	697	719	743	249	460	448	555	545	412
CO	1A3biii	1006	1034	1199	1177	1250	1121	1138	1135	1129	1115	1233	1108	1079	1125	1083	1105	1064	1096	1116	997	985	957	910	741
CO	1A4bi	564	504	522	604	542	541	525	528	508	511	482	521	490	448	400	441	417	395	368	385	329	336	514	434

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
PM2.5	1A3di(i)	191	183	172	151	149	175	173	166	162	156	147	138	128	78
PM2.5	2D3b	197	128	105	67	40	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0
PM2.5	2G	289	89	83	60	89	78	49	51	49	55	59	48	52	36
PM10	1A3di(i)	191	183	172	151	149	175	173	166	162	156	147	138	128	78
PM10	2A5c	58	58	64	68	74	77	78	84	91	76	80	75	75	45
PM10	2D3b	846	551	450	285	171	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2
PM10	2G	289	89	84	60	90	78	49	51	50	55	59	48	52	36
PM10	3B4gi	65	71	71	71	96	77	76	69	72	72	66	71	77	76
TSP	1A3di(i)	191	183	172	151	149	175	173	166	162	156	147	138	128	78
TSP	2A5c	117	117	128	135	148	154	156	169	182	151	161	150	150	91
TSP	2D3b	3664	2386	1951	1236	742	6	5	5	5	8	11	11	10	8
BC	1A2c	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	3	3	3
BC	1A2f									3	4	6	3	2	2
BC	1A4bi	4	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	6	5
BC	2A1	7	7	7	8	9	9	9	9	9	7	7	5	2	2
BC	2D3b	11	7	6	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BC	3F	8	8	7	6	6	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	1

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Pb	1A3biii	4099683	4229962	4906301	4795892	5208089	4784027	4966833	5108514	5222263	5283086	6027125	5588881	5604686	6025755	5900881	6001005	5872325	6329169	6793986	6444473	6470084	6402418	5983772	4916504
Pb	1A3biv	1423551	1446961	1576376	1599827	1650192	1736007	1763907	1742021	1698540	1650943	1540633	1490546	1339307	1341215	834495	631129	597332	628011	669672	707610	719949	735157	789892	800691
Cd	1A1a	27151	28160	32917	35082	36595	33634	35594	37614	41327	44068	46182	45092	46847	50516	52783	56204	52295	54010	56466	49524	33157	44359	51156	24006
Cd	1A3	3498	3610	4120	4175	4533	4457	4612	4792	4999	5176	5652	5581	5701	6063	6146	6296	6384	6718	6975	6962	7102	6926	6446	5819
Cd	1A3bi	1796	1795	1957	1996	2095	2132	2205	2311	2408	2514	2639	2766	2890	3210	3437	3636	3858	4187	4432	4570	4678	4634	4412	4114
Cd	2G	5371	5371	5840	1616	1616	4723	5014	5596	5696	7973	14979	4615	4320	3113	4629	4034	2522	2627	2555	2841	3034	2475	2693	1885
Cd	5C1biii	3439	3533	3627	3707	3780	3844	3903	3955	4000	4045	4086	4132	4180	1000
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	84747	84285	92744	92060	90072	86915	87928	88452	90726	94505	101165	88811	89874	87628	90369	89538	83067	83486	83497	74779	56923	66778	73468	48200
Hg	1A1a	7715	8002	9354	9969	10399	9558	10115	10689	11744	12523	13123	12814	13312	14355	14999	15971	14861	15348	16046	14286	9786	14821	19971	7351
Hg	5C1biii	18484	18988	19495	19926	20319	20663	20977	21258	21500	21739	21960	22212	22470	5375

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
DIOX	1A1a	57	59	67	73	76	69	74	78	85	90	94	94	97	105	109	115	119	123	128	116	103	102	87	60
DIOX	1A2gviii	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	11	15	17	8	6	7	5	5	6
DIOX	1A4bi	96	83	83	99	84	85	81	80	75	74	68	75	68	61	53	59	54	54	48	54	46	46	82	69
DIOX	5C1biii	1719	1766	1813	1854	1890	1922	1951	1977	2000	2022	2043	2066	2090	500
HCB	1A1a																				1	1	469	1183	0
HCB	1A4bi	494	403	379	477	361	375	341	329	285	276	232	276	224	187	149	170	141	169	132	183	158	146	378	315
HCB	5C1biii	42986	44157	45336	46339	47254	48052	48785	49436	50000	50556	51069	51655	52255	12500
PCB	1A4bi	5922	4836	4542	5722	4335	4497	4091	3946	3421	3317	2782	3312	2687	2247	1792	2045	1688	2033	1584	2196	1902	1751	4537	3784
PCB	5C1biii	8597	8831	9067	9268	9451	9610	9757	9887	10000	10111	10214	10331	10451	2500