Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CY Submission year: 2014

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2012
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2012
PMs: 2000 - 2012

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
NOx	1A1a	3394	3520	4049	4363	4562	4153	4412	4666	5093	5377	5656	5613	5846	6283	6545	6925	7143	7478	6318	7424	6316	9689	10941
NMVOC	1A1a	52	54	62	67	70	64	68	72	78	82	87	86	90	96	100	106	110	113	117	110	100	178	284
NMVOC	1A1b	410	490	460	500	570	530	490	670	690	750	690	730	680	730	250
NMVOC	1B2av	716	708	759	766	784	806	819	840	862	892	908	963	1007	1142	1244	1331	872	950	1087	1119	1100	1084	990
NMVOC	3A1	987	972	995	1051	1127	1172	1279	1227	1294	1342	1344	1320	1963	1916	2174	2068	2364	2393	1749	1550	1615	795	655
SOx	1A3	4489	4785	5700	5786	6516	6224	6500	6790	7128	7356	7497	7294	7053	6657	2359	65	66	69	71	14	14	14	13
SOx	1A3bi	1062	1089	1208	1236	1357	1324	1402	1510	1573	1621	1628	1638	1588	1426	540	35	37	40	42	9	9	9	8
SOx	1A3bii	1837	2058	2595	2697	3148	3054	3183	3311	3545	3703	3796	3673	3545	3283	1119	18	17	16	15	3	3	3	2
SOx	1A3biii	1569	1619	1878	1835	1993	1828	1898	1952	1995	2018	2060	1971	1909	1940	696	11	11	12	13	2	2	2	2
NH3	1A3	63	72	87	95	103	114	123	135	150	166	179	191	201	231	231	298	295	300	299	297	292	278	253
NH3	1A3bi	61	69	84	91	100	110	118	130	145	160	173	186	196	226	226	292	290	295	294	292	287	273	247
NH3	4B1b	291	290	292	325	337	359	392	338	294	275	280	267	294	294	315	304	296	287	295	286	274	302	316
CO	1A1a	342	354	408	439	459	418	444	470	513	541	569	565	588	632	659	697	719	743	249	460	448	555	545
CO	1A3ai(i)	487	413	500	516	547	576	566	594	613	646	690	759	749	759	784	797	798	807	944	932	946	870	903
CO	1A4bi	659	573	578	685	587	591	565	562	528	527	485	534	488	439	385	426	394	389	352	386	331	332	571

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
PM2.5	1A4bi	51	58	51	45	39	43	39	40	35	41	35	35	66
PM2.5	2A6	197	128	105	67	40	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
PM10	2A6	846	551	450	285	171	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2
TSP	2A6	3664	2386	1951	1236	742	6	5	5	5	8	8	11	10

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Pb	1A3biv	1423551	1446961	1576376	1599827	1650192	1736007	1763907	1742021	1698540	1650943	1540633	1490546	1339307	1341215	834495	631129	597332	628011	669672	707610	719949	735157	789892
Cd	1A3	4070	4205	4806	4871	5294	5208	5394	5608	5856	6068	6637	6551	6692	7111	7200	7371	7465	7873	8166	8130	8296	8088	7526
Hg	1A1a	6788	7040	8229	8770	9149	8409	8898	9403	10332	11017	11546	11273	11712	12629	13196	14051	13074	13502	14117	14341	11669	14667	20357

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
DIOX	1A1a	57	59	67	73	76	69	74	78	85	90	94	94	97	105	109	115	119	123	128	125	124	120	114
DIOX	1A2c	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	17	17
DIOX	1A4bi	99	88	91	106	95	95	92	92	89	90	84	91	86	78	70	77	73	69	65	67	58	59	90
DIOX	6Ca	1290	1325	1360	1390	1418	1442	1464	1483	1500	1517	1532	1550	1571	375
HCB	1A4bi	592	483	454	572	433	449	409	394	342	331	278	331	268	224	179	205	169	203	158	220	190	175	454
HCB	6Ca	42986	44157	45336	46339	47254	48052	48785	49436	50000	50556	51069	51655	52358	12500