Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CH Submission year: 2023

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2021
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2021
PMs: 2000 - 2021

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
NOx	1A3ai(i)	1214	1176	1243	1286	1318	1394	1461	1528	1612	1743	1838	1735	1602	1439	1357	1387	1456	1559	1667	1589	1597	1708	1775	1782	1769	1888	1958	2081	2204	2227	794	904
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	10509	10181	10755	11127	11409	12067	12648	13223	13954	15089	15906	15016	13866	12451	11742	12008	12679	14048	15608	14226	15620	16704	17369	17607	17612	18841	21080	23228	25461	25752	11090	12462
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	144468	141355	134648	122640	119986	115818	110460	106183	105759	105364	103258	100152	95392	94071	93414	94219	92730	91428	91437	86548	84229	80043	80497	80617	76825	72841	70959	67495	64382	60830	52633	51298
NOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	140600	137736	131577	124353	120070	117475	113754	108078	107761	106329	104082	101772	97118	95381	94012	93480	91073	88791	87159	83915	82509	79169	79037	79465	76200	74286	72843	69362	65313	61873	52949	52214
NMVOC	11C	61344	60352	62892	58021	67130	60199	54908	61502	61600	61773	63805	61848	62335	75222	60840	61677	68170	62645	61356	66679	59556	66436	64795	62976	64352	71083	64984	68294	74652	70535	69369	69569
NMVOC	1A4bi	10042	10622	9854	9405	8332	8458	8725	7474	7362	7006	6196	6313	5755	5878	5642	5640	5322	4643	4973	4712	4952	3882	4069	4199	3112	3293	3371	3206	2917	2868	2668	2693
NMVOC	2D3d	40731	39134	37540	35950	34363	32780	31092	29416	27751	26522	25313	24124	19431	14945	10666	10622	10575	10527	10837	11162	11500	11189	10875	10558	9819	9222	8604	8494	8384	8274	8277	8280
NMVOC	2D3h	20354	19311	18248	17164	16059	14933	13786	12619	11430	9882	8441	7107	7078	7055	7041	7187	7032	6815	6367	6269	6173	5693	5205	4710	4403	4097	3790	3765	3741	3716	3691	3667
NMVOC	3B1a	7075	7143	7081	6997	7143	7145	7211	7077	7081	7009	6973	7086	7078	7089	7124	7360	7580	7803	7920	7499	7318	7361	7429	7415	7471	7467	7404	7355	7329	7246	7140	7127
SOx	1A2c	1103	958	739	699	607	616	576	484	390	450	523	469	387	407	413	269	237	187	275	233	231	200	201	168	179	190	158	144	156	131	137	141
SOx	1A2gviii	3314	2834	2219	2050	2145	2571	1768	961	1383	872	687	1223	896	804	960	878	1060	842	761	740	777	606	705	491	414	422	458	400	419	351	306	256
SOx	1A3ai(i)	100	97	104	108	111	119	124	128	135	145	151	143	132	118	112	113	119	126	134	127	131	141	145	144	142	150	151	156	161	161	56	63
SOx	1A3ai(ii)	875	854	909	947	978	1043	1085	1127	1182	1269	1329	1254	1158	1039	980	996	1049	1122	1215	1161	1225	1312	1341	1354	1362	1411	1486	1533	1629	1652	598	676
SOx	1A3biii(fu)	1743	1653	1549	1289	587	464	494	472	548	622	394	356	330	283	14	14	14	14	14	13	13	13	12	12	11	11	11	10	10	10	10	10
SOx	1B2c	300	448	414	457	468	447	511	478	487	489	446	473	473	446	501	405	189	189	226	164	164	134	90	104	124	71	5	3	3	2	3	2
CO	1A4ai	11159	12270	11757	11628	10613	11195	12095	10683	10912	10708	9731	10179	9498	10083	9889	9923	10025	9193	8975	8855	8459	6202	6699	7004	6613	7166	7454	7159	6567	6579	6156	6942
CO	1A4bi	111867	119781	111017	106730	94754	96452	99166	84272	82380	78306	68885	69954	63396	64607	62297	62030	58291	50570	53881	50784	53010	41038	42680	43840	31766	33736	34614	32713	29750	29326	26867	28148

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
PM2.5	1A3bvi(fu)	740	741	745	751	759	760	766	773	786	797	812	824	837	851	864	878	895	909	919	928	855	892
PM10	1A3bvi(fu)	2201	2196	2205	2225	2249	2255	2278	2299	2336	2368	2415	2450	2483	2523	2558	2596	2647	2684	2713	2735	2515	2627
TSP	1A3bvi(fu)	2201	2196	2205	2225	2249	2255	2278	2299	2336	2368	2415	2450	2483	2523	2558	2596	2647	2684	2713	2735	2515	2627
BC	1A3bvi(fu)	74	74	75	75	76	76	77	77	79	80	81	83	84	85	87	88	90	91	92	93	86	89
BC	1A4bi	1774	1770	1577	1588	1485	1457	1350	1146	1207	1116	1143	856	863	851	585	620	635	598	540	531	484	506

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Pb	1A1a	29818043	26259669	24148917	21867742	19614093	17770895	16084724	14233794	12652540	11049997	9406405	7141579	4667924	1952768	1940055	1925646	2012430	1922907	1843629	1768290	1763293	1671524	1678084	1636615	1437477	1492028	1567098	1614099	1669108	1677783	1660914	1660139
Pb	1A2f	4426400	5669420	6789966	7737961	8606059	9253931	6471381	5056881	3849430	2890142	2011566	2071870	1441132	1434471	1523864	1546922	772808	893760	869414	815691	831729	311081	277961	259601	266946	250670	245044	260658	261268	265855	250312	261236
Pb	1A2gviii	974802	1023560	1036057	1090208	1033064	905970	1244787	780087	872722	803910	929989	935569	1010039	1038633	955469	901801	881187	888598	803833	808777	816670	740827	688085	652893	703629	672000	714791	708504	624913	545045	547659	667799
Pb	1A3ai(ii)	441315	430655	458335	477754	493535	525964	547636	568797	596356	640878	671453	633804	585164	525141	495042	503379	506076	567244	473269	462352	412343	395670	364984	320800	333605	399898	297830	292027	284133	292336	183522	221186
Pb	1A3aii(i)	2026909	1876602	1890173	1859547	1807491	1806241	1745778	1674299	1610953	1577240	1492486	1350211	1192655	1147935	1155557	1000018	968110	903071	880787	885847	812970	893128	794980	756768	782321	751560	711507	723632	702038	670198	703655	760820
Pb	1A3bi	232611332	207555967	178266706	129864069	106022139	77797724	60001759	48526534	31590616	18141340	3653980	93773	93935	95800	97666	99584	101125	104319	108939	108944	109223	108572	111106	111758	111926	108119	108542	108647	110391	110011	97229	99126
Pb	1A3bi(fu)	211229464	186207459	153745897	117662178	93884666	71532072	54545144	43427530	28620643	16229431	3315801	91559	92488	93370	94396	94790	95118	96263	98451	100924	102741	103723	104948	106308	107412	108685	109978	110708	110336	110103	96018	99950
Pb	1A3bii	13632224	12119525	10423586	7369823	6203441	4319196	3203238	2494657	1550226	859836	166241	9421	9592	9804	10018	10443	10765	11304	11620	11503	11528	11847	12394	12694	13097	13079	13438	13718	14229	14517	14927	14498
Pb	1A3bii(fu)	11962253	10463691	8510685	6413317	5213882	3800242	2755721	2085245	1315410	708902	139595	9244	9476	9609	9753	10046	10260	10613	10728	10832	10981	11424	11840	12191	12666	13135	13583	13930	14223	14528	14774	14597
Pb	2C1	59857600	62400380	67238586	68943746	66435256	38692016	39887049	42628275	22908252	2775769	225128	227769	238894	241214	256746	242980	262196	265698	276032	197959	256324	279021	261385	257052	273432	268057	255819	262471	266508	231841	229795	263900
Pb	2G	7260000	6585000	6015000	5415000	4860000	4545000	4200000	3600000	4035000	4575000	3780000	3191500	3891500	3403365	2988378	1839328	1699990	1503988	1241848	859488	419050	462210	450640	502510	434910	410080	357170	423860	436730	330520	336110	336110
Cd	1A1a	1754418	1552496	1430678	1292360	1163162	1058182	960829	862093	783697	692504	597395	465648	324057	167661	171208	175347	191826	186271	193630	186395	196468	194886	205714	204817	187543	181750	174595	163618	157636	159099	157032	154020
Cd	1A2gviii	30759	29098	30182	31491	30739	29662	32465	22724	26032	23152	25307	27293	26968	27446	26716	25188	24894	24706	23899	24374	24384	21534	20917	19693	19215	18459	19466	19298	17232	16413	15807	19005
Cd	2C1	443304	462153	497991	510634	492048	286533	295395	315699	176141	27633	4173	4266	4557	4623	4952	4682	5061	5117	5312	3785	4925	5347	5052	4967	5302	5220	4985	5114	5198	4545	4518	5196
Cd	2G	101957	102174	106483	100564	98326	98270	96111	95942	98216	96180	94331	91216	93015	93041	90997	80656	84272	81800	84538	87432	80799	80273	85791	85256	76612	75382	76418	77957	76180	72174	74377	73340
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	3430357	3197127	3046605	2827969	2607261	2217604	2106328	1937739	1656409	1385745	1215131	1058410	890594	769172	753433	739727	748261	748961	747576	733046	749791	724165	742563	756201	685187	689501	669512	660267	652874	616635	605752	628859
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	3425940	3192160	3040447	2826066	2603537	2216027	2105433	1935345	1654458	1382505	1212188	1056860	889548	767402	751045	736229	743875	743088	740031	727248	744958	720323	737772	751830	681395	689274	669767	660968	652057	615746	603974	628526
Hg	1A1a	3915254	3454268	3174830	2877030	2582802	2345390	2116079	1898641	1704486	1508153	1296359	1008018	688467	335351	337719	341095	362914	342614	336301	319438	318389	302935	304751	287979	284850	288019	295308	295513	297882	300053	300527	298051
Hg	1A2f	225634	202463	190101	174800	181199	170105	142691	118365	103721	89796	78396	61282	48180	60687	79855	96244	112768	128635	140103	120667	113825	97929	77899	65415	68343	65011	64833	65753	64396	62926	61484	64213
Hg	1A2gviii	13280	22306	12479	12207	12048	14931	25676	13039	13611	14791	13513	15130	17086	18580	16156	17864	19914	22337	22955	24082	24270	22986	23969	25419	26604	27661	29047	29249	28026	27586	28196	30976
Hg	1A3bi(fu)	25928	26583	26607	26018	25578	25794	26000	26857	27451	28018	28701	28917	29092	28632	28652	27969	27816	27295	27558	27506	27307	26922	26702	26312	25761	25582	25505	25177	25026	24569	21410	22307
Hg	2B10a	384000	336000	288000	240000	192000	144000	115970	89430	64380	40819	18747	21412	17196	16969	16650	17630	16379	15008	14173	10680	13327	20504	12928	17395	22761	29052	19920
Hg	2C1	1108000	1155162	1244759	1276403	1229924	716104	738294	789049	264082	275475	40895	41919	45008	45717	49059	46365	50142	50662	52585	37411	48735	52881	50076	49228	52601	51840	49514	50796	51648	45219	44986	51746
Hg	5C1biv	210900	183090	157170	133140	111000	110440	106400	95360	82160	63750	45010	28060	7600	10646	14177	16052	17828	19813	21764	23682	25567	25573	24958	33143	34980	38923	33136	27198	19588	20079	19486	19279
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	6390547	5884203	5580698	5200571	4769614	3942164	3685380	3407485	2606419	2353350	1826494	1501037	1111613	788823	802744	825459	864929	862531	871853	816232	831703	784456	755544	743992	708854	721329	712043	688522	681625	659909	650721	680126
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	6387684	5880924	5576384	5198506	4766587	3940413	3683667	3404958	2604194	2350423	1823856	1499258	1110202	786989	800691	823097	862325	859215	868070	813158	829086	782282	753062	741750	706848	720753	711592	688293	680890	659084	649694	679567

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
DIOX	1A4bi	17673	18972	17631	17025	15176	15517	16100	13798	13621	13069	11625	11918	10892	11193	10854	10934	10454	9245	10058	9368	9618	7292	7359	7302	5094	5455	5673	5416	4987	4970	4602	4795
HCB	1A2b	172000099	172000104	172000057	75	64	74	61	66	64	49	50	17	39	27	18	26	15	20	24	36	24	16	34	33	19	26	16	18	12	13	11	14
HCB	1A4bi	322015	342502	318190	304692	270708	276064	285532	244667	241087	229627	202740	206977	188903	193935	185515	187097	178852	156414	168415	159578	167173	128662	133429	137174	99101	107206	112103	107805	99409	99572	89147	98000
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	172544268	172567161	172538801	523099	480821	491894	510225	457662	461761	455296	432900	449663	428637	437605	434018	444298	452841	423870	443427	432319	445226	386626	400951	400511	347814	360453	375616	370984	359444	361492	350946	366789
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	172544268	172567161	172538801	523099	480821	491894	510225	457662	461761	455296	432900	449663	428637	437605	434018	444298	452841	423870	443427	432319	445226	386626	400951	400511	347814	360453	375616	370984	359444	361492	350946	366789
PCB	2K	1525787748	1489839485	1454732035	1420552913	1387362682	1355193767	1324050983	1293910383	1264721006	1228156237	1182086482	1134067002	1083941738	1031587100	976919799	919906665	860571981	812240120	776897323	741640681	706455581	671343469	636322181	601426904	566709522	532238452	498097138	464382433	431202598	398674670	366921608	336069479
PCB	5E	215511294	224522831	230748472	234142989	234740777	232650777	228048737	221167377	212284931	708395716	722466106	599692713	491295753	396873682	315747938	247024991	189657502	142501873	104370383	74076370	50471608	41584541	33985281	27548707	22148279	17659725	13963996	10949490	8513591	6563611	5017187	3802256
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	2331610478	2170736727	2102237539	2034191344	1967009989	1900826793	1833494806	1767110815	1698262142	2142057674	2079324081	1887697159	1711510385	1549898944	1404625365	1270210554	1145564391	1042847557	962791067	891262223	827061626	778171308	731065297	685724558	641945740	599588484	558665718	519078124	480814641	443881904	408288521	374101334
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	2331610440	2170736684	2102237482	2034191311	1967009948	1900826767	1833494780	1767110780	1698262112	2142057637	2079324050	1887697140	1711510373	1549898931	1404625351	1270210537	1145564371	1042847531	962791033	891262199	827061609	778171297	731065284	685724547	641945732	599588485	558665720	519078126	480814640	443881902	408288518	374101332