Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CH Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NMVOC	11C	61344	60352	62892	58021	67130	60199	54908	61502	61600	61773	63805	61848	62335	75222	60840	61677	68170	62645	61356	66679	59556	66436	64795	62976	64352	71083	64984	68294	74652	70535	69369
NMVOC	2D3a	9195	9568	9929	10277	10619	10952	11262	10784	10310	9818	9328	9266	9220	9168	9111	9047	8982	8938	8928	8913	8878	8847	8817	8792	8772	8743	8708	8790	8855	8918	8984
NMVOC	2D3d	40731	39134	37540	35950	34363	32780	31092	29416	27751	26505	25281	24076	19368	14867	10574	10516	10456	10395	10693	11005	11332	11009	10684	10357	9608	9001	8374	8266	8157	8049	8054
NMVOC	2D3h	20354	19311	18248	17164	16059	14933	13786	12619	11430	9882	8441	7107	7078	7055	7041	7187	7032	6815	6367	6269	6173	5693	5205	4710	4403	4097	3790	3774	3758	3742	3727
NMVOC	3B1a	7075	7143	7081	6997	7143	7145	7211	7077	7081	7009	6973	7086	7078	7089	7124	7360	7580	7803	7920	7499	7318	7361	7429	7415	7471	7467	7404	7355	7329	7246	7140
SOx	1A2c	1103	958	739	699	607	616	576	484	390	450	523	469	387	407	413	269	237	187	275	233	231	200	201	168	179	190	158	144	156	131	137
SOx	1A2gviii	3314	2834	2219	2050	2145	2571	1768	961	1383	872	687	1223	896	804	960	878	1060	842	772	759	786	606	705	491	414	422	458	400	419	351	306
SOx	1B2c	301	450	416	459	470	448	512	480	488	490	447	474	474	447	502	407	190	188	228	162	162	134	89	107	130	68	4	3	3	2	2
CO	1A4ai	11159	12270	11757	11628	10613	11196	12094	10684	10911	10709	9731	10178	9498	10083	9889	9923	10026	9195	8976	8856	8461	6203	6699	7004	6612	7163	7451	7153	6562	6568	6123
CO	1A4bi	111864	119779	111016	106733	94758	96459	99168	84273	82377	78308	68884	69953	63398	64609	62294	62031	58292	50570	53881	50784	53012	41036	42678	43838	31764	33735	34614	32709	29743	29316	26844
CO	2B5	3780	3780	3780	3780	3780	3425	3841	3972	4087	3049	4603	3122	4713	4383	4519	3849	3701	4239	3667	2417	4324	4357	4165	3227	3533	3830	8002	7798	3930	6700	5712

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
BC	1A4bi	1774	1770	1577	1588	1485	1457	1350	1146	1207	1116	1143	856	862	851	585	620	635	598	540	531	483

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A1a	29818142	26259719	24148842	21867824	19614003	17770998	16084798	14233745	12652583	11049946	9406410	7141535	4667865	1952770	1940030	1925641	2012397	1922905	1843629	1768308	1763310	1671504	1678069	1636606	1437482	1492027	1567097	1614099	1669114	1677788	1660909
Pb	1A2f	4426400	5669420	6789966	7737961	8606059	9253931	6471381	5056881	3849430	2890142	2011566	2071870	1441132	1434471	1523864	1546922	772808	893760	869414	815691	831729	311081	277961	259601	266946	250670	245044	260658	261268	265855	250312
Pb	1A2gviii	975216	1023848	1036022	1090588	1032975	906384	1245125	780085	872985	803900	930140	935562	1010026	1038763	955501	901954	881234	888713	804058	809107	816915	740849	688126	652925	703661	671982	714702	708338	624749	544661	547005
Pb	1A3aii(i)	2026909	1876602	1890173	1859547	1807491	1806241	1745778	1674299	1610953	1577240	1492486	1350211	1192655	1147935	1155557	1000018	968110	903071	880787	885847	812970	893128	794980	756768	782321	751560	711507	723632	702038	670198	703655
Pb	1A3bi	232621184	207503028	178239777	129923101	106100641	77863082	60050352	48562721	31611742	18149828	3651645	3572160	3515153	3492048	3431355	3329770	3228743	3189448	3125831	3051090	2949256	2830337	2725820	2603556	2498168	2338483	2268629	2207575	2176047	2158136	1897838
Pb	1A3bi(fu)	211214033	186200024	153738505	117652030	93877380	71523210	54538001	43421054	28612755	16220979	3306402	3304333	3288164	3229931	3168284	3079143	2987772	2904042	2854633	2803637	2733025	2634274	2524742	2421030	2324008	2230188	2151436	2107094	2070003	2036309	1747044
Pb	1A3bii	13631159	12112880	10418818	7371900	6206917	4321352	3203559	2493636	1547848	856082	161212	146551	135581	129400	122287	114856	107227	103795	95293	86260	78411	72447	68602	62465	58992	50139	48987	45199	43376	44505	49317
Pb	1A3bii(fu)	11959217	10460576	8507441	6409970	5210364	3796251	2751471	2080798	1310739	703810	134010	125096	117322	108319	101020	94117	86951	79291	72240	65544	60166	55305	50502	45641	42397	39476	37128	34822	32134	31244	30409
Pb	2C1	59857600	62400380	67238586	68943746	66435256	38692016	39887049	42628275	22908252	2775769	225128	227769	238894	241214	256746	242980	262196	265698	276032	197959	256324	279021	261385	257052	273432	268057	255819	262471	266508	231841	229795
Pb	2G	7260000	6585000	6015000	5415000	4860000	4545000	4200000	3600000	4035000	4575000	3780000	3191500	3891500	3403365	2988378	1839328	1699990	1503988	1241848	859488	419050	462210	450640	502510	434910	410080	357170	423860	436730	330520	336110
Cd	1A1a	1754420	1552497	1430677	1292362	1163160	1058184	960830	862092	783697	692503	597395	465648	324055	167661	171207	175347	191825	186271	193630	186395	196468	194885	205713	204817	187543	181750	174594	163619	157636	159099	157031
Cd	1A2gviii	30774	29111	30188	31506	30744	29677	32478	22730	26044	23158	25317	27297	26974	27454	26721	25198	24901	24714	23935	24435	24416	21538	20922	19697	19216	18457	19456	19284	17215	16375	15751
Cd	2C1	443304	462153	497991	510634	492048	286533	295395	315699	176141	27633	4173	4266	4557	4623	4952	4682	5061	5117	5312	3785	4925	5347	5052	4967	5302	5220	4985	5114	5198	4545	4518
Cd	2G	101957	102174	106483	100564	98326	98270	96111	95942	98216	96180	94331	91216	93015	93041	90997	80656	84272	81800	84538	87432	80799	80273	85791	85256	76612	75382	76418	77957	76180	72174	74377
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	3426380	3173555	3016714	2805211	2582928	2199397	2050467	1898925	1621746	1351888	1187195	1019521	855457	717442	722175	709902	711670	717218	722321	703793	711185	693509	717024	726410	661933	664054	648570	637097	627348	593589	590558
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	3422038	3168666	3010629	2803348	2579233	2197846	2049590	1896516	1619812	1348672	1184283	1018083	854437	715715	719797	706450	707278	711327	714757	697938	706541	689892	712505	722285	658407	664097	649125	638140	626921	593142	586048
Hg	1A1a	3915254	3454268	3174830	2877031	2582802	2345390	2116080	1898641	1704486	1508153	1296359	1008018	688466	335351	337719	341095	362914	342613	336301	319439	318390	302935	304750	287982	284855	288022	295310	295515	297885	300056	300530
Hg	1A2f	225634	202463	190101	174800	181199	170105	142691	118365	103721	89796	78396	61282	48180	60687	79855	96244	112768	128635	140103	120667	113825	97929	77899	65415	68343	65011	64833	65753	64396	62926	61484
Hg	1A2gviii	13287	22313	12486	12215	12055	14938	25683	13045	13619	14797	13521	15136	17093	18587	16161	17874	19922	22344	22970	24105	24286	22992	23977	25425	26605	27658	29028	29224	27994	27514	28097
Hg	2B10a	384000	336000	288000	240000	192000	144000	115970	89430	64380	40819	18747	21412	17196	16969	16650	17630	16379	15008	14173	10680	13327	20504	12928	17395	22761	29052	19920
Hg	2C1	1108000	1155162	1244759	1276403	1229924	716104	738294	789049	264082	275475	40895	41919	45008	45717	49059	46365	50142	50662	52585	37411	48735	52881	50076	49228	52601	51840	49514	50796	51648	45219	44986
Hg	5C1biv	210900	183090	157170	133140	111000	110440	106400	95360	82160	63750	45010	28060	7600	10646	14177	16052	17828	19813	21764	23682	25567	25573	24958	33143	34980	38923	33136	27198	19588	20079	19486
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	6388586	5872445	5565785	5189242	4757508	3933117	3657501	3388131	2589122	2336483	1812588	1481661	1094084	762998	787146	810593	846672	846678	859235	801584	812810	769524	742818	729129	697570	708596	701535	677248	668806	648496	642822
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	6385751	5869198	5561501	5187188	4754483	3931367	3655787	3385590	2586895	2333556	1809953	1479915	1092673	761172	785089	808237	844054	843344	855435	798481	810269	767447	740450	726996	695683	708144	701220	677166	668253	647885	640841

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	1A1a	130484	114953	105334	95173	85032	76781	68861	61066	53997	46874	39202	29012	17786	5617	5427	5227	5260	4724	4290	3789	3416	2884	2492	1948	1618	1455	1304	1123	938	946	950
DIOX	1A4bi	17673	18972	17631	17025	15177	15518	16100	13798	13621	13069	11625	11918	10893	11194	10854	10934	10454	9246	10058	9369	9619	7292	7359	7302	5093	5454	5672	5414	4985	4966	4596
HCB	1A2b	172000099	172000104	172000057	75	64	74	61	66	64	49	50	17	39	27	18	26	15	20	24	36	24	16	34	33	19	26	16	18	12	13	10
HCB	1A4bi	322008	342503	318196	304698	270719	276089	285536	244675	241092	229631	202741	206971	188908	193942	185509	187099	178857	156422	168420	159581	167182	128662	133428	137173	99090	107161	112048	107730	99300	99359	88824
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	172544269	172567171	172538818	523116	480843	491937	510237	457679	461774	455307	432915	449657	428653	437623	434014	444320	452867	423895	443449	432341	445258	386636	400957	400511	347782	360366	375497	370821	359221	361058	350078
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	172544269	172567171	172538818	523116	480843	491937	510237	457679	461774	455307	432915	449657	428653	437623	434014	444320	452867	423895	443449	432341	445258	386636	400957	400511	347782	360366	375497	370821	359221	361058	350078
PCB	2K	1525787748	1489839485	1454732035	1420552913	1387362682	1355193767	1324050983	1293910383	1264721006	1228156237	1182086482	1134067002	1083941738	1031587100	976919799	919906665	860571981	812240120	776897323	741640681	706455581	671343469	636322181	601426904	566709522	532238452	498097138	464382433	431202598	398674670	366921608
PCB	5E	215511294	224522831	230748472	234142989	234740777	232650777	228048737	221167377	212284931	708395716	722466106	599692713	491295753	396873682	315747938	247024991	189657502	142501873	104370383	74076370	50471608	41584541	33985281	27548707	22148279	17659725	13963996	10949490	8513591	6563611	5017187
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	2331610478	2170736727	2102237539	2034191344	1967009990	1900826793	1833494806	1767110815	1698262142	2142057674	2079324081	1887697159	1711510385	1549898944	1404625365	1270210554	1145564391	1042847557	962791066	891262222	827061633	778171316	731065306	685724568	641945750	599588494	558665728	519078134	480814652	443881915	408288528
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	2331610440	2170736684	2102237482	2034191311	1967009948	1900826767	1833494780	1767110781	1698262113	2142057637	2079324050	1887697140	1711510373	1549898931	1404625351	1270210537	1145564371	1042847531	962791032	891262197	827061616	778171306	731065293	685724557	641945742	599588496	558665730	519078136	480814651	443881913	408288521