Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CH Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NMVOC	11C	61344	60352	62892	58021	67130	60199	54908	61502	61600	61773	63805	61848	62335	75222	60840	61677	68170	62576	61280	66566	59461	66306	64654	62839	64188	70902	64804	68371	74749	74724
NMVOC	2D3d	40731	39134	37540	35950	34363	32780	31092	29416	27751	26505	25281	24076	19368	14867	10574	10516	10456	10395	10693	11005	11332	11009	10684	10357	9608	9001	8374	8266	8157	8049
NMVOC	2D3h	20354	19311	18248	17164	16059	14933	13786	12619	11430	9882	8441	7107	7078	7055	7041	7187	7032	6815	6367	6269	6173	5693	5205	4710	4403	4097	3790	3802	3815	3827
NMVOC	3B1a	10494	10560	10428	10264	10432	10387	10432	10177	10120	9951	9831	9918	9832	9608	9415	9478	9505	9522	9666	9152	8930	8908	8912	8817	8803	8716	8604	8506	8431	8288
SOx	1A2c	1103	958	739	699	607	616	576	484	390	450	523	469	387	407	413	269	237	187	275	233	231	200	201	168	179	190	158	144	156	131
SOx	1A2gviii	3314	2834	2219	2050	2145	2571	1768	961	1383	872	687	1223	896	804	960	878	1060	842	771	758	785	605	704	490	413	421	457	399	418	350
SOx	1B2c	300	448	414	457	468	447	511	478	487	489	446	473	473	446	501	405	189	189	231	164	164	134	121	104	124	71	5	3	3	2
CO	1A4ai	11150	12260	11739	11607	10590	11147	12040	10624	10846	10636	9659	10095	9416	9990	9796	9824	9899	9071	8811	8656	8216	6035	6547	6895	6631	7238	7482	7151	6519	6496
CO	1A4bi	111856	119769	111001	106718	94743	96429	99136	84239	82342	78269	68842	69901	63342	64545	62222	61943	58196	50469	53743	50618	52815	41108	43018	44468	32419	34662	35477	33419	30282	29752

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
BC	1A4bi	1725	1717	1525	1531	1428	1397	1290	1092	1147	1064	1093	828	843	843	587	625	638	597	537	524

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1a	29818142	26259719	24148842	21867824	19614003	17770998	16084798	14233745	12652583	11049946	9406410	7141535	4667865	1952770	1940030	1925641	2012397	1922905	1843629	1768308	1763310	1671504	1678069	1636606	1396706	1406650	1442427	1459159	1459931	1462931
Pb	1A2f	4426400	5669420	6789966	7737961	8606059	9253931	6471381	5056881	3849430	2890142	2011566	2071870	1441132	1434471	1523864	1546922	772808	893760	869414	815691	831729	311081	277961	259601	266946	250670	245044	260658	261268	265855
Pb	1A2gviii	974809	1023251	1034639	1089105	1031475	904191	1244406	779145	871872	801988	927757	932845	1007590	1036067	951773	897716	876538	884068	798079	802699	809964	734916	682220	647166	699167	667452	710135	703907	620211	539695
Pb	1A3aii(i)	2026909	1876602	1890173	1859547	1807491	1806241	1745778	1674299	1610953	1577240	1492486	1350211	1192655	1147935	1155557	1000018	968110	903071	880787	885847	812970	893128	794980	756768	782321	751560	711507	723632	702038	670198
Pb	1A3bi	232271742	207322600	177982617	129699721	106030483	77763536	59965684	48482857	31561139	18125362	3643992	3566831	3510931	3488435	3426306	3325693	3227420	3186432	3123662	3047054	2944455	2824641	2723185	2600017	2494223	2333729	2264365	2201720	2180002	2155139
Pb	1A3bi(fu)	210274819	185366390	153038120	117128223	93537609	71217022	54264723	43168638	28423041	16104567	3278911	3281661	3267930	3211850	3151191	3065645	2977619	2892486	2842271	2787034	2714638	2615881	2508923	2403515	2305225	2209769	2130632	2083926	2080265	2022259
Pb	1A3bii	13676907	12150920	10434679	7374120	6206462	4319711	3204085	2495645	1551266	859175	161982	147192	136042	129848	122529	114948	107308	103824	95551	86760	79051	73031	69292	63237	59950	51196	50149	46477	42229	45308
Pb	1A3bii(fu)	11952357	10443196	8485016	6387720	5188561	3777779	2736607	2068790	1302897	699398	133152	124316	116479	107601	100301	93462	86320	78625	71649	64986	59647	54771	49990	45101	41908	38965	36584	34277	31620	30622
Pb	2C1	59857600	62400380	67238586	68943746	66435256	38692016	39887049	42628275	22908252	2775769	225128	227769	238894	241214	256746	242980	262196	265698	276032	197959	256324	279021	261385	257052	273432	268057	255819	262471	266508	231841
Pb	2G	7260000	6585000	6015000	5415000	4860000	4545000	4200000	3600000	4035000	4575000	3780000	3191500	3891500	3403365	2988378	1839328	1699990	1503988	1241848	859488	419050	462210	450640	502510	434910	410080	357170	423860	436730	330520
Pb	6A	6784000	6686667	6589333	6484000	6386667	6289333	6192000	6103200	5508800	6085600	6305600	6722400	6275200	6831200	6760800	6599200	6079200	6732000	6311200	6148800	6022400	6494400	6800800	6999200	5599200	6052800	5924000	6144000	6564800	6264800
Cd	1A1a	1754420	1552497	1430677	1292362	1163160	1058184	960830	862092	783697	692503	597395	465648	324055	167661	171207	175347	191825	186271	193630	186395	196468	194885	205713	204817	196604	200723	202299	198050	204121	206832
Cd	1A2gviii	30748	29074	30098	31409	30646	29532	32435	22671	25975	23035	25163	27123	26820	27285	26484	24929	24604	24421	23560	24023	23956	21129	20498	19256	18851	18090	19084	18920	16835	15987
Cd	1A3bvi(fu)	64780	66215	65768	64683	63916	64463	64464	65398	66855	68476	70379	70381	70766	71428	72287	72568	73382	74191	75509	76529	78112	79316	80473	81804	83009	84312	85809	87127	88107	88811
Cd	2C1	443304	462153	497991	510634	492048	286533	295395	315699	176141	27633	4173	4266	4557	4623	4952	4682	5061	5117	5312	3785	4925	5347	5052	4967	5302	5220	4985	5114	5198	4545
Cd	2G	101957	102174	106483	100564	98326	98270	96111	95942	98216	96180	94331	91216	93015	93041	90997	80656	84272	81800	84538	87432	80799	80273	85791	85256	76612	75382	76418	77957	76180	72174
Cd	6A	169600	167167	164733	162100	159667	157233	154800	152580	137720	152140	157640	168060	156880	170780	169020	164980	151980	168300	157780	153720	150560	162360	170020	174980	139980	151320	148100	153600	164120	156620
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	3425574	3172244	3015420	2803708	2581403	2197800	2048771	1897378	1620206	1350346	1185792	1017969	853793	715774	720227	708132	710460	715956	720563	701985	708983	691750	715275	724467	669517	681765	683884	688448	698949	689711
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	3421003	3167091	3009083	2801632	2577491	2196040	2047650	1894695	1617918	1346702	1182422	1016039	852404	713667	717539	704401	705840	709838	712693	695805	703970	687801	710383	719971	665584	681377	683991	689011	697748	688146
Hg	1A1a	3915254	3454268	3174830	2877031	2582802	2345390	2116080	1898641	1704486	1508153	1296359	1008018	688466	335351	337719	341095	362914	342613	336301	319439	318390	302935	304750	287982	285304	289217	296249	295369	299432	302187
Hg	1A2f	225634	202463	190101	174800	181199	170105	142691	118365	103721	89796	78396	61282	48180	60687	79855	96244	112768	128635	140103	120667	113825	97929	77899	65415	68343	65011	64833	65753	64396	62926
Hg	1A2gviii	13269	22286	12424	12147	11985	14835	25647	12997	13561	14697	13393	14987	16956	18431	15940	17615	19627	22043	22571	23639	23730	22462	23383	24755	25997	27027	28371	28562	27281	26779
Hg	1A4ai	13861	15843	15917	16222	15040	16349	18277	16713	18027	17623	16931	18868	17411	18933	18928	19378	19951	18651	20182	20549	22021	18292	20708	22702	20236	22604	24299	24059	22471	23308
Hg	2B10a	384000	336000	288000	240000	192000	144000	115970	89430	64380	40819	18747	21412	17196	16969	16650	17630	16379	15008	14173	10680	13327	20504	12928	17395	22761	29052	19920
Hg	2C1	1108000	1155162	1244759	1276403	1229924	716104	738294	789049	264082	275475	40895	41919	45008	45717	49059	46365	50142	50662	52585	37411	48735	52881	50076	49228	52601	51840	49514	50796	51648	45219
Hg	5C1biv	210900	183090	157170	133140	111000	110440	106400	95360	82160	63750	45010	28060	7600	10646	14177	16052	17828	19813	21764	23682	25567	25573	24958	33143	34980	38923	39764	40797	39177	40157
Hg	6A	80024	78708	77392	76075	74759	73443	72126	70917	63388	70398	73049	78060	72370	79221	78242	76122	69522	77583	72323	70194	68514	74314	77946	80326	62727	68198	66488	69138	74398	70549
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	6388534	5872425	5565455	5188986	4756962	3932648	3657287	3387690	2588803	2336154	1812224	1481097	1093326	762458	786315	809949	845663	845803	857689	799816	810122	767158	740292	726265	695580	707496	706302	687724	687003	678766
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	6385577	5869030	5561031	5186814	4753815	3930778	3655429	3384983	2586368	2332975	1809321	1479088	1091706	760424	784087	807448	842922	842346	853731	796538	807388	764907	737736	723942	693490	706837	705776	687425	686231	677758

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1A4bi	17671	18969	17626	17020	15172	15508	16091	13790	13611	13058	11612	11902	10876	11173	10832	10907	10422	9210	10005	9307	9548	7277	7390	7384	5194	5602	5810	5528	5070	5034
DIOX	6A	2544	2507	2471	2432	2395	2358	2322	2289	2066	2282	2365	2521	2353	2562	2535	2475	2280	2524	2367	2306	2258	2435	2550	2625	2100	2270	2222	2304	2462	2349
HCB	1A2b	172000099	172000104	172000057	75	64	74	61	66	64	49	50	17	39	27	18	26	15	20	24	36	24	16	34	33	19	26	16	18	12	13
HCB	1A4bi	321938	342418	318072	304582	270594	275833	285256	244384	240786	229286	202366	206490	188374	193312	184788	186179	177781	155239	166703	157359	164451	126779	131759	135554	98291	106586	111155	106516	97719	97355
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	172544009	172566837	172538275	522660	480361	490963	509275	456630	460637	453939	431470	447920	426856	435527	431580	441461	449433	420276	438580	426545	438473	381479	395880	395816	344954	357548	371762	366544	354334	355352
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	172544009	172566837	172538275	522660	480361	490963	509275	456630	460637	453939	431470	447920	426856	435527	431580	441461	449433	420276	438580	426545	438473	381479	395880	395816	344954	357548	371762	366544	354334	355352
PCB	2K	1525787748	1489839485	1454732035	1420552913	1387362682	1355193767	1324050983	1293910383	1264721006	1228156237	1182086482	1134067002	1083941738	1031587100	976919799	919906665	860571981	812240120	776897323	741640681	706455581	671343469	636322181	601426904	566709522	532238452	498097138	464382433	431202598	398674670
PCB	5E	215511294	224522831	230748472	234142989	234740777	232650777	228048737	221167377	212284931	708395716	722466106	599692713	491295753	396873682	315747938	247024991	189657502	142501873	104370383	74076370	50471608	41584541	33985281	27548707	22148279	17659725	13963996	10949490	8513591	6563611
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	2331610478	2170736727	2102237539	2034191342	1967009989	1900826790	1833494804	1767110813	1698262140	2142057672	2079324078	1887697156	1711510381	1549898939	1404625359	1270210547	1145564382	1042847547	962791052	891262204	827061612	778171304	731065299	685724567	641945755	599588505	558665736	519078139	480814653	443881912
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	2331610439	2170736683	2102237479	2034191309	1967009946	1900826763	1833494776	1767110777	1698262108	2142057632	2079324044	1887697134	1711510367	1549898923	1404625343	1270210528	1145564361	1042847520	962791016	891262179	827061594	778171292	731065284	685724555	641945746	599588506	558665738	519078140	480814651	443881909