Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CH Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NMVOC	11C	61344	60352	62892	58021	67130	60199	54908	61502	61600	61773	63805	61848	62335	75222	60840	61677	68170	62576	61280	66566	59461	66306	64654	62839	64188	70902	64804	68371	74749
NMVOC	2D3d	44328	42122	39932	37757	35599	33456	31220	29008	26820	25650	24496	23356	18773	14372	10153	10112	10069	10025	10144	10269	10402	10150	9893	9632	7968	7504	6924	6948	6972
NMVOC	2D3h	20354	19311	18248	17164	16059	14933	13786	12619	11430	9882	8441	7107	7078	7055	7041	7187	7032	6815	6367	6269	6173	5693	5205	4710	4403	4097	3790	3802	3815
NMVOC	3B1a	9540	9600	9480	9331	9484	9443	9483	9252	9200	9047	8938	9016	8938	8735	8559	8617	8641	8656	8787	8320	8119	8098	8102	8016	8003	7924	7822	7733	7665
SOx	1A2c	1103	958	739	699	607	616	576	484	390	450	523	469	387	407	413	269	237	187	275	233	231	200	201	168	179	190	158	144	156
SOx	1A2gviii	3289	2812	2191	2018	2116	2551	1736	945	1361	854	655	1191	855	758	912	831	1008	785	716	718	753	589	710	515	475	480	498	442	643
CO	1A4ai	11520	12596	11991	11778	10688	11221	12056	10581	10733	10407	9368	9651	8869	9258	8943	8814	8724	7809	7356	7327	7000	5284	5869	6351	6179	6696	6918	6564	5915

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
BC	1A4ai	159	162	150	158	153	153	153	140	130	132	125	93	105	115	121	128	128	118	104

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A1a	29525209	25984378	23830552	21528583	19263496	17421455	15636791	13930515	12395606	10822453	9125481	6866014	4370210	1650628	1658370	1670269	1772063	1676911	1651152	1574950	1560042	1496973	1513197	1440243	1402126	1396680	1432380	1444781	1455630
Pb	1A2f	4426400	5669420	6789966	7737961	8606059	9253931	6471381	5056881	3849430	2890142	2011566	2071870	1441132	1434471	1523864	1546922	772808	893760	869414	829464	860867	354125	331844	327897	336984	314564	310959	326231	326043
Pb	1A3aii(i)	2026909	1876602	1890173	1859547	1807491	1806241	1745778	1674299	1610953	1577240	1492486	1350211	1192655	1147935	1155557	1000018	968110	903071	880787	885847	812970	893128	794980	756768	782321	751560	711507	723632	702038
Pb	1A3bi	232324648	207342225	178015259	129712050	106044522	77767923	59969342	48485895	31562978	18126632	3643866	3566889	3510943	3488391	3426482	3325841	3227401	3186298	3123444	3046810	2944471	2824210	2722631	2599033	2493437	2333401	2263069	2203228	2177700
Pb	1A3bi(fu)	210272539	185236681	152947687	117068241	93495168	71189150	54246798	43156971	28416864	16101777	3278317	3281361	3267631	3211554	3151191	3065645	2977619	2892486	2842271	2787034	2715892	2615072	2507834	2401385	2304081	2210027	2129885	2085396	2068172
Pb	1A3bii	13681234	12163701	10445425	7380289	6211519	4322591	3206008	2496767	1551862	859468	162011	147212	136060	129857	122527	114928	107265	103751	95477	86711	78898	73025	69306	63334	59955	50930	49860	46081	43147
Pb	1A3bii(fu)	11952357	10443196	8485016	6387720	5188561	3777779	2736607	2068790	1302897	699398	133152	124316	116479	107601	100301	93462	86320	78625	71649	64986	59646	54764	49980	45089	41869	38770	36343	33870	31662
Pb	2C1	59857600	62400380	67238586	68943746	66435256	38692016	39887049	42628275	22908252	2775769	225128	227769	238894	241214	256746	242980	262196	265698	276032	197959	256324	279021	261385	257052	273432	268057	255819	262471	266508
Pb	2G	7260000	6585000	6015000	5415000	4860000	4545000	4200000	3600000	4035000	4575000	3780000	3191500	3891500	3403365	2988378	1839328	1699990	1503988	1241848	859488	419050	462210	450640	502510	434910	410080	357170	423860	436730
Pb	6A	6784000	6686667	6589333	6484000	6386667	6289333	6192000	6103200	5508800	6085600	6305600	6722400	6275200	6831200	6760800	6599200	6079200	6732000	6311200	6148800	6022400	6494400	6800800	6999200	5599200	6052800	5924000	6144000	6564800
Cd	1A1a	1752311	1550681	1428790	1290597	1161623	1056969	959749	861779	783865	693019	598502	467310	326573	171138	175565	180601	198528	198827	216656	215916	227032	237709	261017	270724	246853	236353	239473	244735	247102
Cd	1A4ai	38140	43784	43684	44840	43404	49614	56977	53315	57345	59352	56679	60931	59257	65053	66523	68573	76326	73324	80689	84844	90247	75577	87305	96851	92525	104045	113403	113524	107225
Cd	2C1	443304	462153	497991	510634	492048	286533	295395	315699	176141	27633	4173	4266	4557	4623	4952	4682	5061	5117	5312	3785	4925	5347	5052	4967	5302	5220	4985	5114	5198
Cd	6A	169600	167167	164733	162100	159667	157233	154800	152580	137720	152140	157640	168060	156880	170780	169020	164980	151980	168300	157780	153720	150560	162360	170020	174980	139980	151320	148100	153600	164120
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	3684562	3466958	3300904	3092438	2852133	2493080	2372275	2188762	1921241	1653264	1468349	1319836	1143120	1028013	1032555	1036444	1048157	1048034	1106037	1106695	1148851	1083889	1164951	1219396	1093086	1123636	1166607	1182305	1161591
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	3679862	3461661	3294479	3090252	2848141	2491232	2371107	2186065	1918934	1649622	1465020	1317934	1141743	1025932	1029901	1032735	1043595	1041998	1098259	1100592	1143929	1079963	1160039	1214782	1088965	1122986	1166720	1183297	1161451
Hg	1A1a	3914833	3453853	3174326	2876465	2582185	2344738	2115189	1897989	1703882	1507576	1295594	1007201	687502	334267	336580	339914	361599	340572	333065	315411	314249	297359	297706	279654	279254	284917	291776	289765	294212
Hg	1A2f	225634	202463	190101	174800	181199	170105	142691	118365	103721	89796	78396	61282	48180	60687	79855	96244	112768	128635	140103	134440	142962	140973	131782	133711	138382	128906	130748	131326	129171
Hg	2B10a	384000	336000	288000	240000	192000	144000	115970	89430	64380	40819	18747	21412	17196	16969	16650	17630	16379	15008	14173	10680	13327	20504	12928	17395	22761	29052	19920
Hg	2C1	1108000	1155162	1244759	1276403	1229924	716104	738294	789049	264082	275475	40895	41919	45008	45717	49059	46365	50142	50662	52585	37411	48735	52881	50076	49228	52601	51840	49514	50796	51648
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	6370562	5847843	5535478	5152150	4720509	3891276	3611730	3347710	2547651	2294512	1773134	1439939	1053947	717629	739119	758889	791637	790768	794550	746534	766288	743696	722129	711004	689875	690358	686308	665347	667490
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	6367529	5844353	5530965	5149895	4717285	3889339	3609817	3344956	2545171	2291293	1770212	1437913	1052308	715579	736879	756372	788893	787313	790598	743259	763568	741431	719543	708617	687704	689601	685755	665140	666968

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	1A4ai	2558	2870	2792	2802	2619	2858	3168	2856	2975	2974	2737	2854	2672	2841	2796	2796	2869	2627	2556	2543	2402	1784	1936	2047	2031	2207	2288	2165	1949
DIOX	6A	2544	2507	2471	2432	2395	2358	2322	2289	2066	2282	2365	2521	2353	2562	2535	2475	2280	2524	2367	2306	2258	2435	2550	2625	2100	2270	2222	2304	2462
HCB	1A2b	172000099	172000104	172000057	75	64	74	61	65	63	48	49	17	39	27	17	26	15	20	24	36	24	16	33	33	20	27	16	18	16
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	172327272	172337331	172328386	322902	305828	315769	329870	306358	315647	317978	314472	331602	323855	332459	336471	349143	363472	346699	363568	361835	379728	342553	363394	372128	335439	345317	356863	350137	337063
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	172327272	172337331	172328386	322902	305828	315769	329870	306358	315647	317978	314472	331602	323855	332459	336471	349143	363472	346699	363568	361835	379728	342553	363394	372128	335439	345317	356863	350137	337063
PCB	2K	1525787748	1489839485	1454732035	1420552913	1387362682	1355193767	1324050983	1293910383	1264721006	1228156237	1182086482	1134067002	1083941738	1031587100	976919799	919906665	860571981	812240120	776897323	741640681	706455581	671343469	636322181	601426904	566709522	532238452	498097138	464382433	431202598
PCB	5E	215511294	224522831	230748472	234142989	234740777	232650777	228048737	221167377	212284931	708395716	722466106	599692713	491295753	396873682	315747938	247024991	189657502	142501873	104370383	74076370	50471608	41584541	33985281	27548707	22148279	17659725	13963996	10949490	8513591
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	2331114164	2170304144	2101832034	2033823220	1966604237	1900444128	1833150193	1766801593	1697952820	2141748670	2078992265	1887359035	1711185222	1549580843	1404288394	1269855313	1145208157	1042485171	962433868	890906952	826685912	777801399	730718041	685372524	641584807	599259212	558326045	518740210	480480833
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	2331114164	2170304144	2101832034	2033823220	1966604237	1900444128	1833150193	1766801593	1697952820	2141748670	2078992265	1887359035	1711185222	1549580843	1404288394	1269855313	1145208157	1042485171	962433868	890906952	826685912	777801399	730718041	685372524	641584807	599259212	558326045	518740210	480480833