Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CH Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NMVOC	11C	61344	60352	62892	58021	67130	60199	54908	61502	61600	61773	63805	61848	62335	75222	60840	61677	68170	62576	61280	66566	59461	66306	64654	62839	64188	70902	64804	65035
NMVOC	1A3bi	53363	49386	45924	37754	35469	31385	30054	29045	26959	26033	24078	21775	19764	18526	17173	15983	14348	13898	12813	11692	10700	9857	9047	8316	7697	6914	6565	6306
NMVOC	2D3d	54168	50642	47158	43715	40314	36954	33527	30149	26820	25650	24496	23356	18370	13687	9307	9322	9338	9355	9560	9769	9979	9799	9612	9418	7847	7475	6984	7008
NMVOC	2H2	1977	1984	1979	1996	1972	1972	1974	1972	1939	1960	1961	1964	1970	1968	1980	1981	1987	2021	2050	2034	2056	2215	2149	2154	2038	2199	1755	2391
NMVOC	3B1a	9540	9600	9480	9331	9484	9443	9483	9252	9200	9047	8938	9016	8938	8735	8559	8617	8641	8656	8787	8320	8119	8098	8102	8016	8003	7924	7822	7733
SOx	1A1b	660	648	545	595	784	956	866	940	787	907	1012	1020	830	939	1152	1249	1185	1319	1477	1347	1431	1290	1602	1590	1906	602	162	154
SOx	1A2gviii	3213	2741	2125	1956	2057	2497	1688	902	1323	820	626	1166	830	734	889	809	990	765	700	701	739	574	699	510	471	475	494	440
CO	1A4ai	11652	12719	12097	11874	10777	11278	12101	10625	10767	10431	9385	9822	8994	9346	8983	8816	8586	7543	7002	6988	6701	5072	5637	6085	5917	6416	6655	6356
CO	1A4bi	117163	124964	115390	110519	97686	98920	101149	85514	83106	78378	68496	69500	62232	62487	59444	58219	53408	45195	46682	43584	44859	35136	36478	37517	27807	29275	29751	28092

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
BC	1A4ai	158	165	152	159	154	152	150	133	122	124	118	88	99	109	114	121	122	114

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A1a	29525209	25984378	23830552	21528583	19263496	17421454	15636791	13930515	12395606	10822453	9125481	6866014	4370210	1650628	1658369	1670269	1772063	1676911	1651152	1574950	1560042	1496973	1513197	1440243	1402126	1396680	1432391	1444830
Pb	1A2f	4426400	5669420	6789966	7737961	8606059	9253931	6471381	5056881	3849430	2890142	2011566	2071870	1441132	1434471	1523864	1546922	772808	893760	869414	829464	860867	354125	331844	327897	336984	314564	310959	326503
Pb	1A3	243332565	215098884	178010260	136531113	108968520	82801909	62823331	49684896	32902290	19187782	5119630	4957141	4761512	4629835	4545692	4278746	4127682	3965480	3852601	3773828	3605859	3605004	3410871	3275850	3229563	3124976	3025853	2964549
Pb	1A3aii(i)	2026909	1876602	1890173	1859547	1807491	1806241	1745778	1674299	1610953	1577240	1492486	1350211	1192655	1147935	1155557	1000018	968110	903071	880787	885847	812970	893128	794980	756768	782321	751560	711507	723632
Pb	1A3bi	240862198	215494336	186765801	134607872	110841083	80483144	62144985	50373650	32677862	18823225	3772735	3668703	3598417	3585700	3525135	3418950	3314542	3287676	3217231	3132480	3022051	2903753	2799702	2669766	2561849	2383884	2316075	2254043
Pb	2C1	59857600	62400380	67238586	68943746	66435256	38692016	39887049	42628275	22908252	2775769	225128	227769	238894	241214	256746	242980	262196	265698	276032	197959	256324	279021	261385	257052	273432	268057	255819	262471
Pb	2G	7260000	6585000	6015000	5415000	4860000	4545000	4200000	3600000	4035000	4575000	3780000	3191500	3891500	3403365	2988378	1839328	1699990	1503988	1241848	859488	419050	462210	450640	502510	434910	410080	357170	423860
Pb	6A	6784000	6686667	6589333	6484000	6386667	6289333	6192000	6103200	5508800	6085600	6305600	6722400	6275200	6831200	6760800	6599200	6079200	6732000	6311200	6148800	6022400	6494400	6800800	6999200	5599200	6052800	5924000	6144000
Cd	1A1a	1752311	1550681	1428790	1290597	1161623	1056969	959749	861779	783865	693019	598502	467310	326573	171138	175565	180601	198528	198827	216656	215916	227032	237709	261017	270724	246853	236353	239478	244759
Cd	1A4ai	38079	43697	43509	44667	43241	49060	56299	52749	56707	58597	55906	60714	58920	64454	65450	67419	74482	70678	77197	81128	86137	71873	83069	91754	88096	99168	107735	107865
Cd	2C1	443304	462153	497991	510634	492048	286533	295395	315699	176141	27633	4173	4266	4557	4623	4952	4682	5061	5117	5312	3785	4925	5347	5052	4967	5302	5220	4985	5114
Cd	6A	169600	167167	164733	162100	159667	157233	154800	152580	137720	152140	157640	168060	156880	170780	169020	164980	151980	168300	157780	153720	150560	162360	170020	174980	139980	151320	148100	153600
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	3696730	3477363	3309458	3099833	2858413	2498023	2376170	2192002	1923305	1654201	1468044	1320415	1141248	1025339	1029106	1032411	1041820	1038071	1092495	1092494	1132502	1069597	1147662	1198693	1075968	1103942	1144851	1161157
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	3695179	3475538	3306630	3101015	2857412	2498647	2377055	2190915	1922083	1651201	1464934	1318545	1139861	1023112	1026217	1028262	1036472	1031260	1083312	1084625	1125433	1063848	1141382	1193173	1071398	1103279	1144927	1162099
Hg	1A1a	3914831	3453850	3174323	2876461	2582181	2344734	2115185	1897986	1703879	1507572	1295590	1007198	687499	334264	336578	339912	361598	340571	333064	315410	314250	297359	297705	279654	279254	284915	291777	289767
Hg	1A2f	225634	202463	190101	174800	181199	170105	142691	118365	103721	89796	78396	61282	48180	60687	79855	96244	112768	128635	140103	134440	142962	140973	131782	133711	138382	128906	130748	131326
Hg	2B10a	384000	336000	288000	240000	192000	144000	115970	89430	64380	40819	18747	21412	17196	16969	16650	17630	16379	15008	14173	10680	13327	20504	12928	17395	22761	29052	19920
Hg	2C1	1108000	1155162	1244759	1276403	1229924	716104	738294	789049	264082	275475	40895	41919	45008	45717	49059	46365	50142	50662	52585	37411	48735	52881	50076	49228	52601	51840	49514	50796
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	6610565	6067805	5735423	5332031	4880384	4031099	3731522	3447506	2627395	2354241	1812816	1459712	1053747	717345	738799	758484	791143	790039	793599	745487	765142	742722	721011	709619	688691	689088	684864	664036
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	6609206	6066164	5732768	5331610	4878777	4030585	3730780	3445662	2625551	2351428	1810115	1457809	1052181	715262	736430	755737	788010	786174	788990	741357	761416	739581	717788	706815	686326	688337	684391	663798

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	1A4ai	2565	2875	2793	2804	2621	2847	3154	2846	2964	2960	2724	2886	2692	2850	2788	2778	2804	2517	2412	2403	2273	1688	1834	1935	1923	2091	2181	2081
DIOX	6A	2544	2507	2471	2432	2395	2358	2322	2289	2066	2282	2365	2521	2353	2562	2535	2475	2280	2524	2367	2306	2258	2435	2550	2625	2100	2270	2222	2304
HCB	1A2b	172000099	172000104	172000057	75	64	74	61	65	63	48	49	17	39	27	17	26	15	20	24	36	24	16	33	33	20	27	16	18
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	172326817	172336873	172327822	322352	305258	315068	329174	305757	314988	317292	313745	331777	323691	332060	335865	348280	361798	343807	359453	357637	375027	338781	359125	367386	331893	341440	353050	346728
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	172326817	172336873	172327822	322352	305258	315068	329174	305757	314988	317292	313745	331777	323691	332060	335865	348280	361798	343807	359453	357637	375027	338781	359125	367386	331893	341440	353050	346728