Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CH Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NMVOC	1A3bi	53363	49386	45923	37754	35469	31385	30054	29045	26959	26033	24077	21775	19763	18525	17171	15978	14342	13887	12801	11681	10691	9848	9039	8307	7690	6912	6581
NMVOC	3Dc	3954	3969	3978	3988	3998	4039	3970	3954	4016	3970	3970	3969	3964	3970	3960	3962	3962	3943	3934	3925	3910	3910	3907	3902	3906	3899	3884
SOx	1A2gviii	3485	2745	2084	1903	2049	2473	1716	1013	1366	655	553	1259	875	713	870	872	979	740	697	638	679	529	594	499	473	477	481
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	39579	36077	32901	26467	27282	25835	25179	23364	22239	16827	15351	18051	15577	14964	14825	15035	13592	11494	11784	9915	10386	8553	8811	8522	7661	6538	6198
SOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	39657	36163	33035	26744	27278	25854	25217	23333	22219	16761	15290	18026	15570	14952	14821	15030	13586	11487	11774	9906	10378	8547	8804	8516	7657	6538	6198
CO	1A4ai	11671	12719	12096	11876	10795	11299	12099	10635	10785	10433	9398	9823	9016	9359	9009	8849	8611	7582	7017	7017	6733	5112	5677	6124	5977	6490	6657

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
BC	1A3biii	441	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	163	2	2	1	1	91	1
BC	1A4ai	159	165	153	159	154	153	150	134	122	125	118	89	100	109	115	122	121

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A1a	29525209	25984378	23830552	21528583	19263496	17421455	15636791	13930515	12395606	10822453	9125481	6866015	4370210	1650628	1658370	1670269	1772064	1676912	1651153	1574951	1560043	1496975	1513199	1440245	1402196	1396692	1439107
Pb	1A2f	4426400	5669420	6789966	7737961	8606059	9253931	6471381	5056881	3849430	2890142	2011566	2071870	1441132	1434471	1523864	1546922	772808	893760	869414	829464	860867	354125	331844	327897	336984	314564	310260
Pb	1A2gvii	32696724	29199576	25463931	21489790	17277153	12826020	10422251	7996869	5549876	3081270	591051	590345	589698	589108	588576	588103	586370	584564	582683	580727	578698	560593	542760	525199	507910	490893	485120
Pb	1A3	359112672	314355997	261143407	203939103	161050529	119956898	92597073	72214841	48325841	27642188	6742504	6553182	6330750	6172296	6061402	5767594	5600804	5422638	5293563	5198382	5013764	5004070	4801130	4656928	4602597	4489654	4380873
Pb	1A3aii(i)	2026909	1876602	1890173	1859547	1807491	1806241	1745778	1674299	1610953	1577240	1492486	1350211	1192655	1147935	1155557	1000018	968110	903071	880787	885847	812970	893128	794980	756768	782321	751560	711507
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	6244340	5781286	5823097	5728745	5568375	5564525	5378256	5158048	4962897	4859035	4597933	4159624	3674237	3536466	3559950	3080775	3048991	2979808	2941155	3011208	3092573	3252355	2930833	2707014	2747228	1375661	1295439
Pb	1A3bi	240862196	215494303	186765705	134607902	110841061	80483105	62144979	50373631	32677827	18823333	3772778	3668761	3598488	3585782	3525228	3419193	3314923	3288153	3217758	3132990	3022506	2904229	2800107	2670412	2562315	2384387	2315741
Pb	1A3dii	116947223	100257312	83970430	68086575	52605748	37527948	30072190	22755223	15577050	8537668	1637079	1610014	1582976	1555965	1528982	1502025	1486291	1470277	1453982	1437406	1420550	1411672	1402733	1393731	1384668	1375543	1377826
Pb	1A4aii	31774060	29097009	25982077	22429262	18438565	14009986	11839953	9430333	6781125	3892331	763949	763787	764234	765292	766960	769237	766699	763901	760842	757523	753944	738938	723797	708523	693115	677573	675762
Pb	1A4bii	23652004	20905841	18053356	15094548	12029417	8857962	7272424	5637093	3951970	2217054	432345	432629	432952	433314	433715	434154	433035	431893	430728	429542	428333	425837	423338	420837	418333	415827	414933
Pb	1A4cii	193372559	165369248	138158124	111739186	86112435	61277870	48741701	36595965	24840662	13475791	2501353	2429350	2357748	2286548	2215749	2145352	2075548	2006456	1938077	1870409	1803455	1742125	1681606	1621897	1562999	1504911	1466871
Pb	2C1	59857600	62400380	67238586	68943746	66435256	38692016	39887049	42628275	22908252	2775769	225128	227769	238894	241214	256746	242980	262196	265698	276032	197959	256324	279021	261385	257052	273432	268057	255819
Pb	2G	7260000	6585000	6015000	5415000	4860000	4545000	4200000	3600000	4035000	4575000	3780000	3191500	3891500	3403365	2988378	1839328	1699990	1503988	1241848	859488	419050	462210	450640	502510	434910	410080	357170
Cd	1A1a	1752311	1550681	1428790	1290597	1161623	1056969	959749	861779	783865	693019	598502	467310	326573	171138	175565	180601	198528	198827	216656	215916	227032	237709	261017	270724	246886	236358	242711
Cd	1A4ai	38137	43752	43563	44727	43370	49221	56357	52844	56866	58682	56045	60836	59176	64744	65899	67914	74936	71291	77850	81920	87370	73112	84416	93547	90276	101938	110266
Cd	2C1	443304	462153	497991	510634	492048	286533	295395	315699	176141	27633	4173	4266	4557	4623	4952	4682	5061	5117	5312	3785	4925	5347	5052	4967	5302	5220	4985
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	3609970	3389801	3217172	3013149	2774229	2414196	2292953	2107884	1838129	1571525	1386092	1239663	1060929	944335	950653	962522	969313	970268	1022796	1021803	1068819	1009778	1083127	1137013	1024428	1055212	1092395
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	3608418	3387976	3214345	3014331	2773228	2414819	2293838	2106797	1836908	1568524	1382981	1237792	1059540	942107	947763	958371	963961	963452	1013607	1013928	1061744	1004023	1076842	1131485	1019852	1054538	1092448
Hg	1A1a	3914836	3453856	3174329	2876467	2582188	2344742	2115194	1897995	1703890	1507586	1295604	1007215	687519	334284	336600	339939	361636	340624	333125	315483	314339	297464	297838	279806	279418	285093	292124
Hg	2B10a	384000	336000	288000	240000	192000	144000	115970	89430	64380	40819	18747	21412	17196	16969	16650	17630	16379	15008	14173	10680	13327	20504	12928	17395	22761	29052	19920
Hg	2C1	1108000	1155162	1244759	1276403	1229924	716104	738294	789049	264082	275475	40895	41919	45008	45717	49059	46365	50142	50662	52585	37411	48735	52881	50076	49228	52601	51840	49514
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	6611543	6068797	5736443	5332987	4881396	4032090	3732492	3448524	2628430	2355285	1813887	1460762	1054837	718446	739943	759668	792350	791450	795138	747194	767030	744582	722701	711110	690051	690244	685709
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	6610132	6067095	5733686	5332520	4879714	4031535	3731693	3446597	2626505	2352368	1811089	1458784	1053206	716282	737485	756825	789111	787453	790384	742925	763171	741318	719354	708191	687591	689448	685149

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
HCB	1A2b	172000099	172000104	172000057	75	64	74	61	65	63	48	49	17	39	27	17	26	15	20	24	36	24	16	33	33	20	27	16
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	172327077	172337112	172328023	322576	305694	315544	329322	306063	315407	317470	314095	331960	324181	332418	336408	348955	362379	344591	359836	358304	375608	339576	359836	367788	332688	342366	353054
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	172327077	172337112	172328023	322576	305694	315544	329322	306063	315407	317470	314095	331960	324181	332418	336408	348955	362379	344591	359836	358304	375608	339576	359836	367788	332688	342366	353054