Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CH Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A4ai	5057	5623	5578	5501	5028	5283	5648	5050	5191	4758	4427	4792	4213	4308	4068	3972	3712	3278	3371	3221	3331	2728	2949	3102	2537	2731
NMVOC	1A3bi	61832	57925	54348	45360	41161	35934	34193	33418	31344	30519	28391	25972	23558	22056	20405	18835	16876	16219	14971	13806	12670	11847	11120	10335	9673	8672
NMVOC	3Db	3954	3969	3978	3988	3998	4039	3970	3954	4016	3970	3970	3969	3964	3970	3960	3962	3962	3943	3934	3925	3910	3910	3907	3902	3906	3899
SOx	1A1b	660	733	631	701	909	1077	1000	1067	924	1045	1128	1148	972	1064	1314	1424	1331	1391	1437	1280	1302	1133	1318	1302	1480	574
SOx	1A2gviii	3612	3123	2220	1993	2080	2549	2044	1095	1384	633	583	1290	875	859	999	1045	1149	976	831	768	835	667	700	649	647	631
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	39742	36493	33076	26595	27348	25923	25497	23437	22248	16798	15381	18088	15581	15112	14968	15220	13773	11738	11924	10050	10546	8733	8957	8710	7909	6758
NH3	3B1a	10086	10193	10110	9994	10203	10203	10416	10326	10432	10418	10451	10702	10767	10642	10547	10736	10886	11024	11551	11283	11352	11417	11516	11487	11563	11542
NH3	3Db	2918	2920	2925	2927	2925	2927	2933	2918	2921	2908	2906	2902	2897	2890	2884	2883	2881	2870	2865	2858	2850	2848	2845	2841	2842	2837
CO	1A3	518794	474102	420013	373797	348451	327127	304287	285497	268376	255234	243185	230307	216385	203285	190190	179193	164022	154773	144759	134090	124698	118041	111606	105663	100366	95276
CO	1A4ai	11659	12720	12102	11880	10788	11295	12094	10631	10785	10434	9401	9826	9020	9365	9015	8854	8617	7587	7024	7025	6742	5120	5688	6140	5986	6503

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
BC	1A3ai(ii)	86	76	65	54	47	43	45	48	52	50	53	56	58	59	59	15
BC	1A4ai	159	165	153	160	155	153	150	134	123	125	119	89	100	110	115	122

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A1a	29525211	25984380	23830550	21528586	19263493	17421459	15636793	13930514	12395607	10822452	9125482	6866012	4370207	1650629	1658368	1670269	1772061	1676909	1651149	1574959	1560045	1496968	1513194	1440225	1402202	1396690
Pb	1A2f	4426400	5669420	6789966	7737961	8606059	9253931	6471381	5056881	3849430	2890142	2011566	2071870	1441132	1434471	1523864	1546922	772808	893760	869414	829464	860867	354125	331844	327897	336984	314564
Pb	1A3	228232860	201268951	166556458	127625658	107405267	81800686	61721143	48702651	32199928	18909891	5208489	5036231	4835836	4701129	4622064	4379021	4242843	4082154	3982029	3916928	3741269	3740208	3558841	3439902	3390290	3290742
Pb	1A3aii(i)	2026909	1876602	1890173	1859547	1807491	1806241	1745778	1674299	1610953	1576751	1491561	1348956	1191177	1146158	1153412	997852	965715	900558	878065	882838	809954	889543	791544	756768	782321	751560
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	6244340	5781286	5823097	5728745	5568375	5564525	5378256	5158048	4962897	4857529	4595083	4155758	3669685	3530992	3553339	3074103	3041447	2971515	2932067	3000972	3081109	3239299	2918163	2707014	2747228	1375661
Pb	1A3bi	241442612	216815072	187783513	135906568	111699809	79929267	60888059	49475207	32151722	18584978	3730855	3638373	3557684	3526562	3450464	3326576	3214004	3155212	3080045	3016583	2898539	2772321	2670144	2540266	2433482	2262352
Pb	2C1	59857600	62400380	67238586	68943746	66435256	38692016	39887049	42628275	22908252	2775769	225128	227769	238894	241214	256746	242980	262196	265698	276032	197959	256324	279021	261385	257052	273432	268057
Pb	2G	7260000	6585000	6015000	5415000	4860000	4545000	4200000	3600000	4035000	4575000	3780000	3191500	3891500	3403365	2988378	1839328	1699990	1503988	1241848	859488	419050	462210	450640	502510	434910	410080
Cd	1A1a	1752312	1550682	1428789	1290598	1161622	1056971	959750	861778	783865	693018	598503	467309	326571	171139	175564	180601	198527	198826	216654	215920	227033	237706	261015	270715	246889	236358
Cd	1A4ai	38219	43836	43689	44847	43343	49203	56328	52830	56896	58766	56134	60943	59299	64910	66079	68069	75116	71517	78144	82246	87707	73452	84826	94147	90720	102549
Cd	2C1	443304	462153	497991	510634	492048	286533	295395	315699	176141	27633	4173	4266	4557	4623	4952	4682	5061	5117	5312	3785	4925	5347	5052	4967	5302	5220
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	3586729	3366603	3193019	2987777	2747494	2385993	2263928	2078198	1808250	1541508	1356014	1209746	1030888	914470	920852	932713	939546	940913	993170	992923	1040110	982695	1057073	1112589	1000959	1033802
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	3581191	3360429	3185907	2984645	2744528	2385771	2264591	2076450	1806050	1537296	1351595	1206239	1027877	910673	916457	927474	933282	933337	982945	983366	1030718	972987	1045117	1099448	987391	1022665
Hg	1A1a	3914836	3453856	3174329	2876467	2582187	2344742	2115194	1897995	1703890	1507586	1295604	1007215	687519	334284	336600	339939	361636	340624	333125	315483	314339	297463	297838	279807	279420	285071
Hg	2C1	1108000	1155162	1244759	1276403	1229924	716104	738294	789049	264082	275475	40895	41919	45008	45717	49059	46365	50142	50662	52585	37411	48735	52881	50076	49228	52601	51840
Hg	5C1bv	63772	63592	64496	66103	67354	69646	69607	70418	68660	68037	67232	65095	62072	60547	55354	57803	56097	56001	56228	55022	52813	44125	34386	27667	20022	11933
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	6575081	6039002	5697925	5295734	4841767	3995114	3703287	3409993	2587349	2311402	1770933	1418587	1012013	679903	700802	722025	754792	754368	756923	708831	729800	709320	686540	676866	658103	660024
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	6575081	6039002	5697925	5295734	4841767	3995114	3703287	3409993	2587349	2311402	1770933	1418587	1012013	679903	700802	722025	754792	754368	756923	708831	729800	709320	686540	676866	658103	660024

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
HCB	1A2b	172000099	172000104	172000057	75	64	74	61	65	63	48	49	17	39	27	17	26	15	20	24	36	24	16	33	33	20	26
HCB	1A2f	19233	16756	15706	14257	15721	14825	13347	11975	11979	11967	12855	13100	12599	12324	13058	13768	13807	14048	13845	13773	14569	14348	13471	13659	14008	12779
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	172327394	172337753	172328375	322853	305723	315657	329745	306180	315478	317508	314205	332085	324270	332720	336706	349323	362746	345112	360276	358702	376025	340046	360306	368351	333221	342942
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	172327394	172337753	172328375	322853	305723	315657	329745	306180	315478	317508	314205	332085	324270	332720	336706	349323	362746	345112	360276	358702	376025	340046	360306	368351	333221	342942