Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CH Submission year: 2015

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2013
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2013
PMs: 2000 - 2013

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
NMVOC	1A3	80629	73678	65130	57996	53537	49937	46119	42750	39698	37305	34917	32520	30044	27628	25545	23758	21503	20278	18821	17307	16068	15177	14312	13539
NMVOC	1A3bi	61838	57930	54352	45364	41164	35936	34195	33419	31344	30514	28377	25957	23543	22040	20388	18818	16855	16194	14947	13779	12646	11795	11067	10282
SOx	1A2gviii	3740	3263	2390	2133	2276	2737	2211	1346	1598	839	751	1455	1032	957	1110	1109	1294	1092	929	958	1015	812	870	794
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	40052	36869	33448	26921	27740	26346	25870	23869	22624	17042	15419	18099	15542	15133	15262	15848	14900	12911	13392	11568	12148	10178	10395	10207
NH3	3B1a	10086	10193	10110	9994	10203	10203	10416	10326	10432	10418	10451	10702	10767	10642	10547	10736	10886	11024	11551	11283	11352	11356	11394	11306
CO	1A3	518782	474091	420003	373787	348442	327119	304278	285490	268369	255228	243180	230342	216458	203393	190330	179363	164328	155220	145348	134821	125563	118940	112529	106610

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Pb	1A1a	29450520	25979684	23828247	21529946	19256636	17417632	15641029	13932329	12394495	10819829	9119763	6859557	4361615	1641229	1670109	1708778	1839967	1765162	1756046	1705477	1720905	1675493	1723046	1619154
Pb	1A2f	4737763	6039323	7214940	8214541	9130778	9823322	7707099	6369632	5236942	4407645	3626210	3613292	2860422	2783538	2800707	2790167	2199400	2357646	2367440	2255714	2398346	1874134	1714091	1697756
Pb	1A3	228233163	201269271	166556796	127626014	107405640	81801076	61721540	48703053	32200336	18910305	5208909	5039200	4841352	4709190	4632668	4392169	4259226	4101806	4004982	3943191	3770919	3770840	3590462	3472523
Pb	1A3aii(i)	2026909	1876602	1890173	1859547	1807491	1806241	1745778	1674299	1610953	1576751	1491561	1348956	1191177	1146158	1153412	997852	965715	900558	878065	882838	809954	889543	791544	756768
Pb	1A3bi	241460224	216829084	187794269	135914238	111705502	79933027	60890075	49476184	32151968	18582446	3729321	3636601	3555761	3524428	3448100	3323992	3210644	3150986	3075901	3011576	2893747	2763607	2662505	2533882
Pb	1A4ai	1286540	1461470	1454214	1457743	1287831	1331552	1449707	1278722	1384426	1286649	1209070	1406213	1211369	1295244	1243906	1251996	1189987	1056114	1104314	1070892	1141269	915651	994722	1060662
Pb	2C1	59857600	62400380	67238586	68943746	66435256	38692016	39887049	42628275	47555896	2500294	2474326	2218944	2039223	2069891	2219125	2097588	2267863	2292194	2379429	1694416	2205732	2394265	2264430	2226183
Pb	5A	17200000	20000000	20000000	18196000	10944000	9721178	8498355	8285520	8222685	5461820	3474330	2203900	933470	610900	144165	85278	26390	7475	5930
Cd	1A1a	1753085	1550165	1424115	1282942	1147055	1038304	934466	832390	744029	649214	546798	413151	265143	104610	106326	109579	117337	111929	111054	107868	110095	105750	109263	102440
Cd	1A4bi	316650	333249	330097	310903	291928	310995	317648	295791	304404	294925	269835	283811	271651	285885	283777	286595	274432	239208	253572	246375	263098	207433	225655	239116
Cd	2C1	443304	462153	497991	510634	492048	286533	295395	315699	352195	25796	25643	23130	21435	21767	23350	22069	23864	24115	25031	17815	23201	25178	23831	23428
Hg	1A1a	3908598	3454416	3174706	2876585	2580069	2342198	2112785	1894834	1698963	1501933	1288706	1000043	679377	325720	325461	327074	344860	321677	309958	291533	285980	266865	263289	235428
Hg	2C1	1108000	1155162	1244759	1276403	1229924	716104	738294	789049	880273	312205	333972	328369	337562	342877	367946	347739	376063	379968	394387	280586	365514	396608	375571	369212
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	6573231	6042006	5713279	5314649	4845379	3992777	3690884	3407524	3207312	2339219	2046639	1676701	1282598	934021	959105	944522	988952	966534	968576	827098	911196	921755	887306	864263
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	6573231	6042006	5713279	5314649	4845379	3992777	3690884	3407524	3207312	2339219	2046639	1676701	1282598	934021	959105	944522	988952	966534	968576	827098	911196	921755	887306	864263

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
HCB	1A1a	113449	107315	106263	106470	103961	104978	106710	108002	111494	118966	129381	135652	140304	139293	145840	153297	169577	169313	175328	177810	183628	187443	200644	196884
HCB	1A2gviii	16520	19293	19921	21315	21251	22623	27277	23268	24986	25599	26576	28853	29792	32747	32915	34366	35655	39778	44422	48120	49447	46592	48894	51490
HCB	1A4ai	14687	16921	16948	17518	17023	19598	22446	21013	22629	23464	22453	24469	23873	26261	26898	27751	30896	29573	32560	34157	36477	30737	35686	39574
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	172276257	172283700	172276329	276060	264531	274525	289617	269303	277417	284282	286320	302748	301138	310445	317357	332446	352197	346248	371203	378451	398879	374547	404607	416906
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	172276257	172283700	172276329	276060	264531	274525	289617	269303	277417	284282	286320	302748	301138	310445	317357	332446	352197	346248	371203	378451	398879	374547	404607	416906