Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CH Submission year: 2013

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2011
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2011
PMs: 2000 - 2011

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
SOx	1A1a	3658	3944	4299	2202	1893	1851	1980	1342	2516	1146	780	706	564	433	383	391	399	357	330	319	297	291
SOx	1A2d	3252	2753	2217	1876	1594	1563	1501	1415	1521	1009	643	978	635	1030	1267	834	937	677	475	222	40	12
CO	UNFCCCTOTAL	836378	807413	755620	662524	605501	564079	544983	512310	488903	472723	443030	418907	390027	376540	357346	340220	315616	297062	286502	271140	261906	286192

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
PM2.5	2A1	378	391	379	361	398	416	417	427	431	433	458	460
PM10	2A1	754	782	758	722	795	831	833	853	861	865	915	920
TSP	2A1	1130	1171	1135	1081	1191	1245	1247	1277	1289	1295	1370	1377

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Pb	1A3	230735225	202860037	167424901	127971238	107617220	82968851	63285896	49734558	32786468	19168311	5253694	5071383	4880844	4764442	4694446	4465004	4329402	4191848	4090363	4026474	3876365	3884310
Pb	1A3aii(i)	2026909	1876602	1890173	1859547	1807491	1806241	1745778	1674299	1610953	1576751	1491561	1348956	1191177	1146158	1153412	997852	965715	900558	878065	882838	809954	889543
Pb	1A3bi	214244877	188644966	155070119	118509744	99590499	76482747	58025194	45272823	29296768	16435900	3325809	3296376	3274311	3215457	3145526	3075516	2977325	2905365	2838029	2776630	2711042	2635156
Pb	1A4ai	1117799	1210281	1193033	1155973	1057584	1073361	1161425	1106075	1145787	1094739	1039373	1083067	1019452	1071694	1045819	1050732	1004625	886215	944775	908049	966451	795228
Pb	2C1	59857600	62400380	67238586	68943746	66435256	38692016	39887049	42628275	47555896	2500294	2474326	2218944	2039223	2069891	2219125	2097588	2267863	2292194	2379429	1694416	2204889	2393290
Pb	6A	17200000	20000000	20000000	18196000	10944000	9721178	8498355	8285520	8222685	5461820	3474330	2203900	933470	610900	144165	85278	26390	7475	5930
Cd	1A1a	1813478	1643492	1542387	1315357	1175775	1071760	979710	852290	820657	672314	552970	420463	272730	113824	113651	115897	123958	118216	116974	113934	114960	111022
Cd	1A2d	107499	101269	87157	78237	70230	66374	62185	62738	59871	45789	33554	50598	30186	44237	46108	41009	48604	36409	26638	15739	4430	2592
Cd	1A4bi	238469	252569	250454	237775	223820	239433	246113	229008	236230	230076	211318	223103	214366	226596	226066	229684	221569	195102	208716	203892	219104	174189
Cd	2C1	443304	462153	497991	510634	492048	286533	295395	315699	352195	25796	25643	23130	21435	21767	23350	22069	23864	24115	25031	17815	23197	25174
Hg	1A1a	3910369	3452682	3172906	2874798	2579588	2341888	2111917	1893467	1697857	1500423	1287722	999010	678474	324536	324655	325636	343592	321492	310958	293000	287484	269523
Hg	2C1	1108000	1155162	1244759	1276403	1229924	716104	738294	789049	880273	312205	333972	328369	337562	342877	367946	347739	376063	379968	394387	280586	365514	396608
Hg	6Cb	225150	194490	165720	138840	113850	110440	106400	95360	82160	63750	45010	28060	7600	8410	9161	8695	8241	8151	8050	7939	7817	7684
Hg	FUTOTAL	6605732	6073323	5738640	5341415	4873055	4013890	3712989	3433658	3230867	2360233	2063883	1694650	1298851	949251	975478	960117	1003315	981411	986873	841087	920067	923648
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	6605732	6073323	5738640	5341415	4873055	4013890	3712989	3433658	3230867	2360233	2063883	1694650	1298851	949251	975478	960117	1003315	981411	986873	841087	920067	923648
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	6605732	6073323	5738640	5341415	4873055	4013890	3712989	3433658	3230867	2360233	2063883	1694650	1298851	949251	975478	960117	1003315	981411	986873	841087	920067	923648