Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CA Submission year: 2023

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2021
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2021
PMs: 2000 - 2021

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	23117	21843	23726	23183	24371	26910	32838	33776	35947	37627	39132	36283	35783	34517	39915	43965	43637	44884	43442	41216	43937	46309	52031	54235	53691	55507	60659	67823	78189	79985	35970	37360
NOx	1A4cii	145591	127760	116957	118282	121400	120482	121984	126401	117628	115129	118626	109106	102915	106162	108084	110617	101467	98233	91958	77207	85585	87307	83495	81559	81093	81235	76578	81796	79828	74389	66306	61997

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
PM2.5	6A	317048	340299	336516	356451	333295	334762	336910	353444	356951	371307	371696	380839	398938	408941	404544	421190	422439	426966	434508	440176	378226	395237
PM10	6A	3024544	3264307	3240977	3297789	3219628	3222390	3242899	3417584	3417883	3535563	3578986	3657267	3819906	3962491	3845889	4026231	4047553	4132367	4219508	4271224	3666988	3833338

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Pb	1A2a	11357383	11362081	11349286	18430213	18833426	15600903	14476077	12226760	10556812	2277865	1469440	2895626	2739238	4969763	4580801	1065754	1163744	1371698	2749513	2219362	3515607	3129953	3260319	3372783	4168387	4128415	4758182	5149125	4521793	4334982	3443724	3485095
Pb	1A2e												25725260	1928	493																146	236	306
Pb	2A5a				4945443	6133466	12161785	14059079	68378219	78326912	32171170	41766869	46420502	52344643	67335643	67293701	64596750	65880237	56861815	43717074	30762982	19674274	9786047	7069121	3124208	880740	944440	1093284	1177307	1225591	2230225	1321470	1992678
Pb	2C1	43581136	43745591	43804913	62574950	64605431	56274078	59909164	48204463	43582311	14179372	6863838	16638461	14525289	22547816	20924762	4683670	4794882	5279087	4848731	3497108	4841212	4776980	5297587	3843714	4575709	4013568	3754858	3760652	4545954	3635998	3809440	4215293
Pb	2C2	2005574	2478775	1133517	1284594	3457387	1675587	707215	775760	642768	883515	978200	10892068	18029313	16148407	9247877	8623306	7446889	8132482	8062397	6534989	7669804	7417344	1433980	1272388	1201017	1207254	1176258	1086736	1198535	1331600	1266110	1097411
Pb	2H3	23645331	23712381	24838812	29286878	28425912	20874422	7578087	8110175	7090368	8790004	9149103	29316985	2844763	1924214	2572337	1559664	1010553	1151748	1453197	714694	838668	803446	592640	752126	805841	677286	605966	635961	530230	508017	465430	328538
Cd	1A1a	129720	127660	130600	136800	136510	139100	139590	136800	129070	131870	134930	137950	260632	638052	297436	249696	207953	449219	410462	389568	360972	745212	427062	363301	164480	139896	162391	120968	97499	114367	99478	95651
Cd	1A1c	23536	25210	26875	28370	29912	30773	31775	33752	34557	35190	35985	36685	53004	75184	80416	59922	78496	130334	133358	283918	418412	135337	148835	132753	103778	124873	120174	144471	154988	159912	158535	149681
Cd	2A5a					463448	565108	454478	692681	569095	482385	546171	525242	757015	2582959	2561229	2897541	2863459	2861644	2020333	1688147	861414	313715	330748	318088	330979	49441	50170	51196	59642	63722	53859	46456
Cd	2C2	33797	40671	17722	20670	18367	26646	117870	116553	115819	128993	32698	31938	430399	434088	356457	304893	311028	316126	307828	253735	312249	305928	297096	324905	375269	328918	305145	305722	320417	363615	307076	257569
Cd	2C7c	77403749	67084011	68424484	11832648	71490389	16561273	23891113	39888574	41119976	35763676	33167372	63970412	34673766	24162327	26134093	28259914	34371138	22107480	17177728	15835598	12132277	4789589	6203840	5241177	4505742	4966693	5043469	4232571	4184818	3914478	1786664	2182596
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	81177157	70766157	72201572	15018199	75927613	20796663	27967812	44332500	45160282	39967130	37025045	68251096	39498290	31509153	33518253	34632170	40657563	28598651	22679166	21062351	16332924	8477695	9596962	8488290	7581714	7554689	7648185	6832260	6855332	6480288	4117613	4472158
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	81177157	70766157	72201572	15018199	75927613	20796663	27967812	44332500	45160282	39967130	37025045	68251096	39498290	31509153	33518253	34632170	40657563	28598651	22679166	21062351	16332924	8477695	9596962	8488290	7581714	7554689	7648185	6832260	6855332	6480288	4117613	4472158
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	81177157	70766157	72201572	15018199	75927613	20796663	27967812	44332500	45160282	39967130	37025045	68251096	39498290	31509153	33518253	34632170	40657563	28598651	22679166	21062351	16332924	8477695	9596962	8488290	7581714	7554689	7648185	6832260	6855332	6480288	4117613	4472158
Hg	1A1a	2247538	2120317	2348907	2142521	2056200	1992503	2094480	2244610	2374358	2367173	2047558	2088750	2060295	2369647	2310045	2166861	1997044	2169487	1629430	1670854	1582960	1016183	855766	845549	708358	732020	668222	627023	612655	601078	504776	497979
Hg	1A2a	83982	84453	85869	87983	86206	87527	91893	108520	114057	119168	122452	120001	121091	116476	119093	92219	37492	45593	137613	94866	147783	172953	179237	179758	162130	162304	157816	155565	163547	155321	136644	149474
Hg	1A2gviii	411482	402610	407579	406775	420254	424896	409930	394569	374282	361931	386060	346058	322507	328579	326939	322318	294151	289029	271017	272700	263092	46842	38385	36574	37322	33644	32365	30051	43184	29095	27373	34070
Hg	2A1	295488	227397	211515	217664	250178	252351	282204	280435	281614	296607	308705	294912	294477	276882	165447	157006	237110	256732	234741	231796	246274	263797	253685	272576	261681	296209	259776	244956	221597	232220	187649	233517
Hg	2A5a	21930	21930	21930	21930	21930	21930	20785	19640	18495	17350	16584	18484	29659	47693	32988	28728	20257	23974	23280	14036	9438	3906	4995	7416	19093	18570	14514	17025	111713	110575	107199	113511
Hg	2C1	692998	705544	712424	720667	720537	728646	730597	762943	773719	777938	736979	733928	793581	857459	800774	814486	745064	683779	676753	570401	603329	551484	581543	614288	587108	552193	596552	522395	508861	444825	423649	406508
Hg	2C7c	24606968	24568747	24483079	9996689	8154167	4583789	5601431	3344704	2796606	2244638	1913196	2099289	1729095	1272601	1878156	1680749	1239156	1398201	996442	832996	540525	217181	257855	354329	282330	173385	221178	143129	201856	119473	159144	191608
Hg	2H3	408447	410579	411644	412451	413985	414468	399435	398510	397577	397127	769080	153380	199944	230572	202704	75264	79021	55936	33631	8579	6242	6011	5399	10870	3488	4281	14851	11352	7735	5	2927	4042
Hg	5C1a	580089	589430	725231	735192	752170	736212	748844	716085	657702	648223	639466	705195	605702	494636	396553	349742	364774	341721	338217	133752	115102	144394	128249	75225	109947	72894	76033	60540	53677	63568	55027	98688
Hg	5C1bii	926473	1021087	1115694	1267036	1257585	1268537	1288952	1288944	469942	440762	551587	404973	259828	252258	209550	132159	42060	359125	567422	165197	124311	107101	4422	1797	9644	14572	15697	17151	6970	10908	7618	14487
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	33638099	33639634	33978655	19238932	17362046	13649271	14778441	12504577	10962942	10327281	9949255	9324153	8836000	8520041	8609287	7939705	7181476	7818398	7068028	5731130	5328337	4124578	3871294	3929022	3686725	3565744	3527822	3296533	3404571	3200351	3047184	3197240
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	33638099	33639634	33978655	19238932	17362046	13649271	14778441	12504577	10962942	10327281	9949255	9324153	8836000	8520041	8609287	7939705	7181476	7818398	7068028	5731130	5328337	4124578	3871294	3929022	3686725	3565744	3527822	3296533	3404571	3200351	3047184	3197240
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	33638099	33639634	33978655	19238932	17362046	13649271	14778441	12504577	10962942	10327281	9949255	9324153	8836000	8520041	8609287	7939705	7181476	7818398	7068028	5731130	5328337	4124578	3871294	3929022	3686725	3565744	3527822	3296533	3404571	3200351	3047184	3197240

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
DIOX	1A2gviii	4501	5167	4867	5429	5275	5148	5483	5118	5072	4986	6198	6351	3096	10551	11218	2751	1920	1267	1424	1104	4349	1313	770	904	976	986	911	850	855	704	613	1058
DIOX	1A3bi	8313	8223	8615	8978	9330	9117	9197	9197	9257	9141	9135	9126	9185	9250	9309	9089	8987	9190	9006	8978	8910	8736	8578	8699	8471	8692	8813	8764	8784	8797	6809	6644
DIOX	5C2	14098	14405	14705	15000	15289	14849	14401	14351	14294	14747	15222	15385	15565	16050	16556	17354	18173	17765	17355	17462	17533	17703	17873	18002	18116	18409	18772	19006	19269	19521	19723	19817
HCB	1A2gviii	7077771	9164386	7990555	9472591	9053393	8512675	9286724	8787579	8714770	8551797	7025266	76357	8414981	4077480	1882605	613596	17377	3159	9389	6579	9120	3328		1650
HCB	2C2	33316	51898	20455	28073	29688	27851	28473	30934	30205	33982	36081	6042	518	3283	489						23158	27362	262961	177398	259099	176960	157230	190700	174532	134564	112972	151254
HCB	2C7c	2706538	2536149	2703380	2471350	2518824	2653841	2456319	2650805	2493862	2642419	2640131	10456451	18804038	6479335	4953614	5573000	4442316	1908750	2651175	707796	942952	927975	648222	724728	527565	690239	824256	1006698	1073999	2650794	714120	368655
HCB	2H3	2380197	3092065	2680326	3205965	3065335	2863144	3137848	2972036	2943332	2887212	2278075	14820	43548	294945	36710	1	1	1			865
HCB	5C2	3340374	3413074	3484071	3554051	3622523	3518161	3412110	3400221	3386616	3493993	3606591	3645237	3687980	3802773	3922608	4111830	4305902	4209175	4112039	4137224	4154274	4194390	4234793	4265239	4292215	4361750	4447757	4503234	4565507	4625073	4673094	4695406