Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CA Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
SOx	1A2gviii	115914	120516	104639	116665	111501	105607	110736	98455	83134	52514	46140	44340	49338	52766	58750	43226	18433	17278	12516	12450	9994	7143	6045	5573	5028	4572	4729	4075	3596	3629	3483
SOx	2C7c	1261024	1109506	963851	886378	670545	879784	868878	813114	823088	762378	757213	750180	746101	645488	702638	674195	658321	614266	562677	394793	368549	331301	340287	367973	370968	362944	357580	265024	138729	69331	84455

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A2a	11337119	11337119	11337119	18416638	18819050	15591065	14471685	12222096	10553314	2272545	1463739	2877593	2646298	4874990	4507206	998049	1097708	1297099	2677738	2160541	3445805	3062166	3249592	3361696	4157855	4118238	4748199	5139975	4512191	4324207	3433995
Pb	1A2e												25725260	1928	493																146	236
Pb	2A5a				4945443	6133466	12161785	14059079	68378219	78326912	32171170	41766869	46420502	52344643	67335643	67293701	64596750	65880237	56861815	43717074	30762982	19674274	9786047	7069121	3124208	880740	944440	1093284	1177307	1225580	4781991	3713353
Pb	2C1	42550161	42550161	42550161	61353642	63465112	55494221	59553341	47763403	43309901	13822958	6529266	15555631	14525289	22545469	20921725	4680593	4792315	5276489	4843107	3493701	4838445	4774942	5296118	3842245	4574170	4012369	3754318	3760362	4545954	3626258	3800916
Pb	2H3	28665561	29581604	29681296	34418973	33607089	24105646	8957212	9678158	8202846	10387743	10833065	34877570	12103186	11364283	9926814	8333986	7620119	8511607	8529028	6512651	7725063	7490703	1678563	1873424	1844573	1680762	1589753	1537574	1476454	1578463	1534138
Cd	1A1a	129720	127660	130600	136800	136510	139100	139590	136800	129070	131870	134930	137950	260632	638052	297436	249696	207953	449219	410462	389568	360976	745212	427100	363322	164485	139896	162391	120968	97499	114367	99478
Cd	1A1c	23536	25210	26875	28370	29912	30773	31775	33752	34557	35190	35985	36685	53004	75184	80416	59922	78496	130334	133358	283918	418412	135337	148835	132753	103778	124873	120174	144471	154988	159912	158535
Cd	2A5a					463448	565108	454478	692681	569095	482385	546171	525242	757015	2582959	2561229	2897541	2863459	2861644	2020333	1688147	861414	313715	330748	318088	330979	49441	50170	51196	59640	63717	53977
Cd	2C7c	77390397	67068691	68407277	11814026	71474206	16539327	23878270	39876736	41106938	35741275	33145455	63948505	34656076	24150873	26120756	28259914	34371138	22107480	17177728	15835598	12132277	4789589	6203840	5241177	4505742	4966693	5043469	4232571	4184818	3914478	1786664
Cd	2H3	440143	442232	422794	429995	436050	596105	466365	410062	401121	463435	480243	491368	861647	658907	598936	274999	276577	335422	313882	251385	301979	294597	285197	314009	304287	293549	288693	270718	284672	320733	280347
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	81167286	70756317	72191765	15008435	75917895	20786934	27957681	44321959	45149293	39955773	37013263	68238798	39485476	31495830	33556261	34617829	40643591	28585044	22665927	21049614	16313860	8472681	9600022	8494794	7593876	7560407	7642404	6842296	6872430	6483411	4114558
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	81167286	70756317	72191765	15008435	75917895	20786934	27957681	44321959	45149293	39955773	37013263	68238798	39485476	31495830	33556261	34617829	40643591	28585044	22665927	21049614	16313860	8472681	9600022	8494794	7593876	7560407	7642404	6842296	6872430	6483411	4114558
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	81167286	70756317	72191765	15008435	75917895	20786934	27957681	44321959	45149293	39955773	37013263	68238798	39485476	31495830	33556261	34617829	40643591	28585044	22665927	21049614	16313860	8472681	9600022	8494794	7593876	7560407	7642404	6842296	6872430	6483411	4114558
Hg	1A1a	2247538	2120317	2348907	2142521	2056200	1992503	2094480	2244610	2374358	2367173	2047558	2088750	2060295	2369647	2310045	2166861	1997044	2169487	1629430	1670854	1582960	1016183	855766	845549	708358	732020	668222	627023	612655	601078	495777
Hg	1A2a	83982	84453	85869	87983	86206	87527	91893	108520	114057	119168	122452	120001	121091	116476	119093	92218	37491	45592	137611	94865	147782	172952	179237	179758	162130	162304	157816	155565	163547	155321	136644
Hg	1A2gviii	411482	402610	407579	406775	420254	424896	409930	394569	374282	361931	386060	346058	322512	328585	326945	322325	294158	289036	271028	272704	263098	46849	38385	36574	37322	33644	32365	30051	43174	29052	28000
Hg	2A1	295488	227397	211515	217664	250178	252351	282204	280435	281614	296607	308705	294912	294477	276882	165447	157006	237110	256732	234741	231796	246274	263797	253685	272576	261681	296209	259776	244956	221597	232220	187649
Hg	2C1	692998	705544	712424	720667	720537	728646	730597	762943	773719	777938	736979	733928	793581	857459	800774	814486	745064	683779	676753	570401	603329	551484	581543	614288	587108	552193	596552	522395	508861	444825	423649
Hg	2C7c	24606968	24568747	24483079	9996689	8154167	4583789	5601431	3344704	2796606	2244638	1913196	2099289	1729095	1272601	1878156	1680749	1239156	1398201	996442	832996	540525	217181	257855	354329	282330	173385	221178	143129	201856	119473	159144
Hg	2H3	408447	410579	411644	412451	413985	414468	399435	398510	397577	397127	769080	153380	200021	230655	202789	75359	79116	56023	33776	8642	6322	6108	5399	10870	3488	4281	14851	11352	7735	5	11578
Hg	5C1a	582952	591111	725552	735734	746394	726861	742200	715676	654676	651477	639641	705370	605094	494811	396728	349917	365124	342071	338617	134472	116025	144691	128286	75326	112537	81537	76195	60541	53677	64479	54112
Hg	5C1bii	926473	1021087	1115694	1267036	1257585	1268537	1288952	1288944	469942	440762	551587	404973	259828	252258	209550	132159	42060	359125	567422	165197	124311	107101	4422	1797	9644	14572	15697	17151	6970	10908	7618
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	33624611	33624982	33961713	19221330	17337160	13625275	14752151	12484074	10943755	10314183	9928408	9303105	8813926	8498310	8587051	7917516	7159260	7795397	7045211	5708093	5303606	4103005	3849612	3906388	3664150	3550127	3500247	3269793	3376301	3175264	3024919
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	33624611	33624982	33961713	19221330	17337160	13625275	14752151	12484074	10943755	10314183	9928408	9303105	8813926	8498310	8587051	7917516	7159260	7795397	7045211	5708093	5303606	4103005	3849612	3906388	3664150	3550127	3500247	3269793	3376301	3175264	3024919
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	33624611	33624982	33961713	19221330	17337160	13625275	14752151	12484074	10943755	10314183	9928408	9303105	8813926	8498310	8587051	7917516	7159260	7795397	7045211	5708093	5303606	4103005	3849612	3906388	3664150	3550127	3500247	3269793	3376301	3175264	3024919

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	1A2gviii	5081	6021	5472	6203	6060	5822	6153	5857	5760	5694	9743	10189	6945	15136	15693	6416	2890	2035	2044	1415	5291	2184	1960	1487	1378	1379	1360	1305	1218	1930	1367
DIOX	1A3di(i)	8668	8948	9228	9508	9787	10067	10439	10810	11182	11553	11925	12303	12681	13059	13437	13815	13539	13263	12987	12711	12435	15849	19263	22677	26091	11329	11116	10806	10822	11582	9997
DIOX	1A3dii	6614	6754	6895	7036	7176	7317	7476	7635	7794	7952	8111	8363	8616	8868	9120	9372	8706	8040	7373	6707	6040	7436	8831	10227	11623	5195	5340	5653	6075	6803	6394
DIOX	5C2	13983	14277	14564	14847	15280	14847	14401	14341	14293	14758	15222	15393	15565	16055	16556	17363	18173	17777	17355	17454	17533	17705	17873	17995	18115	18444	18772	19025	19269	19516	19708
HCB	1A2gviii	7142395	9259541	8057961	9558794	9140841	8587712	9361397	8869897	8791422	8630563	7105978	81089	8416369	4124221	1883722	651634	17377	3159	9389	6579	99222	84620	253974	171162	208915	155066	137786	176175	167874	139542	117101
HCB	2C7c	2693377	2516601	2683520	2446058	2492664	2630902	2436885	2629880	2470372	2616995	2615179	10456325	18803662	6476847	4953275	5573000	4442316	1908750	2651175	707796	933410	927975	648222	724728	527565	690239	824256	1006698	1073999	2650794	714120
HCB	2H3	2405035	3128759	2706679	3239521	3099302	2892189	3166655	3003022	2972360	2917033	2308604	16561	44060	312173	37128	13963	1	1			33937	29837	93219	62218	76680	56916	50573	64664	61616	51218	42981
HCB	5C2	3312986	3382698	3450699	3517651	3620428	3517786	3412106	3397885	3386609	3496729	3606579	3647207	3687984	3803913	3922588	4113881	4305878	4211978	4112010	4135511	4154240	4194882	4234753	4263603	4292171	4370051	4447707	4507632	4565458	4624108	4669504
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	42316526	44819434	44657151	46918708	46645682	46530275	46588955	45521589	46258818	45932078	49911698	41983743	54093196	27017195	22138954	22181117	18601056	15469735	13493819	10345471	10120375	10101427	8569366	8000777	7278897	7835405	8250925	8112256	8694559	10033970	8146338
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	42316526	44819434	44657151	46918708	46645682	46530275	46588955	45521589	46258818	45932078	49911698	41983743	54093196	27017195	22138954	22181117	18601056	15469735	13493819	10345471	10120375	10101427	8569366	8000777	7278897	7835405	8250925	8112256	8694559	10033970	8146338
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	42316526	44819434	44657151	46918708	46645682	46530275	46588955	45521589	46258818	45932078	49911698	41983743	54093196	27017195	22138954	22181117	18601056	15469735	13493819	10345471	10120375	10101427	8569366	8000777	7278897	7835405	8250925	8112256	8694559	10033970	8146338