Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CA Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
SOx	1A2gviii	108770	113761	97313	110503	102537	99144	103960	92943	77882	47027	42131	39146	49252	52641	58670	43131	18433	17278	12516	12863	10319	7143	6045	5548	5151	4655	4760	4211	3765	3820

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A2a	11337119	11337119	11337119	18416638	18819050	15591065	14471685	12222096	10553314	2272545	1463739	2877593	2646298	4874990	4507206	998049	1097705	1297099	2677738	2160541	3445805	3062166	3249592	3361696	4157855	4118238	4748199	5139975	4512191	4324207
Pb	1A2e												25725260	1928	493																146
Pb	2A5a				4945443	6133466	12161785	14059079	68378219	78326912	32171170	41766869	46420502	51642642	67335643	67293701	64596750	65880237	56861815	43717074	30764796	19674296	9786047	7069121	3124208	880740	944440	1093284	1177307	1225580	1248773
Pb	2C1	42550161	42550161	42550161	61353642	63465112	55494221	59553341	47763403	43309901	13822958	6529266	15555631	14525289	22545469	20921725	4680593	4792317	5276489	4843107	3493701	4838445	4774942	5296118	3842245	4574170	4012369	3754318	3760362	4545954	3626258
Cd	1A1a	129720	127660	130600	136800	136510	139100	139590	136800	129070	131870	134930	137950	260632	638052	297436	249696	207953	449219	410462	389568	360976	745212	427100	363322	164485	140006	162481	121048	97589	114487
Cd	1A1c	23536	25210	26875	28370	29912	30773	31775	33752	34557	35190	35985	36685	53004	75184	80416	59922	78496	130334	133358	283918	418412	135337	148835	132753	103778	124873	120174	144471	155792	159912
Cd	2A5a					463448	565108	454478	692681	569095	482385	546171	525242	757015	2582959	2561229	2897541	2863459	2861644	2020333	1688563	861423	313715	330748	318088	330979	49441	50170	51196	59640	63717
Cd	2C7c	77389470	67067662	68406127	11812786	71473134	16537934	23877451	39875976	41106093	35739653	33143920	63946861	34654646	24149835	26119519	28262920	34374126	22067960	17134630	15767393	12062664	4711284	6131643	5241177	4505742	4966693	5043469	4232571	4184818	2224183
Cd	2H3	441015	443198	423877	431162	437062	597422	467140	410780	401922	464973	481699	492931	863010	659895	600107	275652	277424	372707	354543	315734	368353	368475	353313	314009	304287	296655	291798	270718	284672	320720
Cd	5C1biv	6446146	5808975	5171756	4534760	3897810	3260454	2623522	1986024	1348677	711533	74190	74273	71336	20438	17986	4441	4532	4503	4419	4468	4490	4810	4701	4682	4861	5013	4801	4890	4966	5175
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	88110166	77018324	77767631	19903517	80131328	24319367	30808150	46490521	46636561	40759597	37127279	68327598	39524084	31524460	33535650	34690951	40726042	28609277	22683401	21064407	16332378	8495183	9614091	8510507	7619238	7587194	7676059	6851404	6898790	4813554
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	88110166	77018324	77767631	19903517	80131328	24319367	30808150	46490521	46636561	40759597	37127279	68327598	39524084	31524460	33535650	34690951	40726042	28609277	22683401	21064407	16332378	8495183	9614091	8510507	7619238	7587194	7676059	6851404	6898790	4813554
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	88110166	77018324	77767631	19903517	80131328	24319367	30808150	46490521	46636561	40759597	37127279	68327598	39524084	31524460	33535650	34690951	40726042	28609277	22683401	21064407	16332378	8495183	9614091	8510507	7619238	7587194	7676059	6851404	6898790	4813554
Hg	1A1a	2247538	2120317	2348907	2142521	2056200	1992503	2094480	2244610	2374358	2367173	2047558	2088750	2060295	2399247	2310211	2166894	1997315	2170505	1619028	1665338	1582511	1016347	855930	845574	708470	732942	668712	627143	612975	570481
Hg	1A2a	83982	84453	85869	87983	86206	87527	91893	108520	114057	119168	122452	120001	121091	116476	119093	92217	37472	45592	137611	94865	147782	172952	179237	179758	162130	162304	157816	155565	163547	155321
Hg	1A2gviii	411448	402576	407545	406741	420221	424862	409901	394543	374260	361913	386054	346058	322513	328586	326946	322361	294198	289346	271399	273325	263672	47494	38980	36574	37322	33644	32365	30052	43175	29041
Hg	1A4bi	91926	92275	95989	100189	102122	103589	111672	105945	91539	94370	98751	90072	93243	95502	94793	95270	91823	102987	103545	100265	93728	100403	93363	100404	100626	98158	94157	98760	103995	104352
Hg	2A1	295488	227397	211515	217664	250178	252351	282204	280435	281614	296607	308705	294912	294477	276882	165447	157006	237110	256732	234741	231796	246274	263797	232541	272576	261681	296209	259776	244956	221597	232220
Hg	2C1	692998	705544	712424	720667	720537	728646	730597	762943	773719	777938	736979	733928	793581	857459	800774	814487	745083	683779	676753	570401	603329	551484	581543	614288	587108	552193	596552	522395	508861	444825
Hg	2C7c	24616853	24578632	24492964	10006574	8164052	4593674	5610180	3352318	2803084	2249980	1917284	2099277	1729083	1272589	1878144	1681196	1263124	1393654	991005	823895	532106	207713	249126	354329	282330	173385	221178	143129	201856	89819
Hg	2H3	408447	410579	411644	412451	413985	414468	399435	398510	397577	397127	769192	153392	200032	230667	202800	75863	79665	60313	38905	17228	14265	15040	13635	10870	3488	4281	14851	11352	7735	5
Hg	5C1a	928069	1000107	991259	983599	1025882	1003618	982197	902598	790120	758448	720160	654516	650489	563294	556835	490102	500241	495427	478114	187917	155065	146211	126010	112299	103224	95904	92704	84802	76181	75813
Hg	5C1bii	997438	997438	997438	997438	997438	1305402	6411	8815	11219	13623	2196	2079	498	6156	8168	661	958	11226	16603	2095	546	1001	1951	1731	8637	12063	14888	14742	5662	8699
Hg	5C1biv	357088	377496	378346	378739	378847	378005	377564	372944	367474	353154	331625	301678	293012	285233	278979	272616	267745	263524	259671	68275	63386	58402	53377	47599	42402	36987	31517	30529	29378	26881
Hg	5C1bvi	111000	111000	111000	111000	111000	130000	1301250	1296500	357000	111000	422175	420255	259512	207632	203625	137696	53329	347969	545206	164690	131424	157669	44232	5281	55594	6004	4274	3498	4673	490061

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1A2gviii	5088	6032	5483	6216	6073	5833	6163	5867	5771	5707	9756	10202	6951	15154	15251	6438	2912	2035	2046	1383	5292	2196	1971	1498	1388	1381	1362	1308	1221	1930
DIOX	1A3di(i)	8668	8948	9228	9508	9787	10067	10439	10810	11182	11553	11925	12303	12681	13059	13437	13815	13539	13263	12987	12711	12435	15849	19263	22677	26091	11329	11116	10806	10822	11582
DIOX	2H3	1184	1541	1333	1595	1526	1419	1555	1474	1459	1432	2583	2662	1716	3749	4668	1468	424	339	289	164	404	382	474	301	242	233	248	248	219	498
DIOX	5C1bvi	9000	8060	8369	8526	8166	8329	8153	8000	7500	7000	2235	1135	410	973	703	394	187	138	92	367	596	450	113	8	3	1014	142	60	85	276
DIOX	5C2	13960	14253	14539	14821	15254	14820	14373	14313	14265	14758	15222	15393	15565	16055	16556	17363	18173	17777	17355	17454	17533	17705	17873	17995	18115	18444	18772	19025	19269	19516
HCB	1A2gviii	7143413	9260772	8059167	9560398	9142528	8589189	9363778	8871810	8793386	8632954	7108275	81100	8416404	4124472	1883760	651634	17377	3159	9389	6579	99222	84620	253974	171162	208915	155066	137786	176175	167874	139542
HCB	2C7c	2692462	2515288	2682192	2444374	2490932	2629447	2435646	2628538	2468849	2615154	2613431	10456315	18803632	6476621	4953243	5573000	4442316	1908750	2651175	707796	933410	927975	648222	724728	527565	690239	824256	1006698	1073999	1625249
HCB	2H3	2405205	3128899	2706855	3239797	3099648	2892538	3167331	3003509	2972885	2917722	2309233	16564	44072	312261	37138	13963	1	1			33937	29837	93219	62218	76680	56916	50573	64664	61616	51218
HCB	5C2	3307650	3377103	3444866	3511592	3614094	3511303	3405445	3391168	3379765	3496729	3606579	3647207	3687984	3803913	3922588	4113881	4305878	4211978	4112010	4135511	4154240	4194882	4234753	4263603	4292171	4370051	4447707	4507641	4565452	4624069