Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CA Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	1A3c	164989	152837	159815	159258	164751	149210	145956	148042	142646	151015	153281	149228	137263	123221	121594	125695	129970	132888	135818	114551	109649	121611	120802	112134	108432	98445	87958	100745	102889
SOx	1A2gviii	108763	113748	97300	110489	102526	99135	103946	92928	77864	47009	42110	39135	49400	52833	58875	43300	18740	17570	12857	12863	10319	7482	6567	5603	5203	4707	4820	4241	3905

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A2a	11337058	11337058	11337058	18416577	18818989	15591171	14471624	12222115	10553385	2272377	1463772	2877653	2646133	4874853	4507260	998049	1097705	1297099	2677738	2160541	3445805	3062166	3249592	3361696	4157855	4118238	4748199	5139975	4512191
Pb	1A2e												25725260	1928	493
Pb	2A5a				4945443	6133466	12161785	14059079	68378219	78326912	32171170	41766869	46420502	51642642	67335643	67293701	64596750	65880237	56861815	43717074	30764796	19674296	9786047	7069121	3124208	880740	944440	1093284	1177307	38559777
Cd	1A1a	129720	127660	130600	136800	136510	139100	139590	136800	129070	131870	134930	137950	260632	638052	297436	249696	207953	449219	410462	389568	360976	745212	427100	363322	164485	140006	162481	121048	97589
Cd	2A5a					463448	565108	454478	692681	569095	482385	546171	525242	757015	2582959	2561229	2897541	2863459	2861644	2020333	1688563	861423	313715	330748	318088	330979	49441	50170	50303	182417
Cd	2C7c	77389823	67068150	68406547	11812299	71472800	16538208	23877648	39876143	41105806	35739366	33143626	63946538	34655138	24149758	26119403	28262920	34374126	22067960	17134630	15767393	12062664	4711284	6131643	5241177	4505742	4966693	5043469	4232571	4184818
Cd	2H3	433986	434919	414400	422795	427391	587127	459189	404158	393891	451963	472439	485147	855726	657726	596825	275652	277424	372707	354546	315734	368353	368475	353313	314009	304287	296347	291491	270718	284672
Cd	5C1biv	6446146	5808975	5171756	4534760	3897810	3260454	2623522	1986024	1348677	711533	74190	74273	71336	20438	17986	4441	4532	4503	4419	4468	4490	4810	4701	4682	4861	5013	4784	5039	5120
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	88351809	77258638	77998986	20149558	80387841	24573920	31067172	46751317	46933638	41054642	37424843	68628386	39795487	31832943	33841575	34996766	41039988	28922522	22998597	21363332	16646558	8778259	9868166	8702534	7794544	7700956	7759955	6918908	7105468
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	88351809	77258638	77998986	20149558	80387841	24573920	31067172	46751317	46933638	41054642	37424843	68628386	39795487	31832943	33841575	34996766	41039988	28922522	22998597	21363332	16646558	8778259	9868166	8702534	7794544	7700956	7759955	6918908	7105468
Hg	1A1a	2247538	2120317	2348907	2142521	2056200	1992503	2094480	2244610	2374358	2367173	2047558	2088750	2060295	2399247	2310211	2166894	1997315	2170505	1619028	1665338	1582511	1016347	855930	845574	708470	732942	668712	627143	591764
Hg	1A2a	84078	84026	86062	88097	85940	87279	92019	108785	113873	118955	122324	120001	121091	116476	119093	92217	37472	45592	137611	94865	147782	172952	179237	179758	162130	162304	157816	155571	163554
Hg	1A2gviii	413774	404839	410079	408962	422424	427164	412093	396689	376366	364016	388001	346051	322513	328586	326946	322361	294198	289346	271399	273325	263672	44254	38980	36574	37321	33196	32365	28881	41784
Hg	2A1	293340	225511	210535	219344	251057	252819	282769	279246	281007	296864	308794	294647	294213	276882	165447	157006	237110	256732	234741	231796	246274	263797	232541	272576	261681	296209	259776	244956	221597
Hg	2C1	692972	705140	712953	720830	720528	728426	731038	762990	772990	777630	736741	733928	793581	857459	800774	814487	745083	683779	676753	570401	603329	551484	581543	614288	587108	552193	596552	527647	514891
Hg	2C7c	24617024	24578474	24493465	10006350	8163829	4593451	5609605	3351925	2803320	2249773	1917031	2099277	1729083	1272589	1878144	1681196	1263124	1393654	991005	823895	532106	207713	249126	354329	282330	173385	221178	143129	201856
Hg	2H3	408339	410470	411536	412342	413877	414359	399326	398401	397469	397019	769083	153289	200030	230667	202800	75863	79665	60313	38905	17228	14265	15040	13635	10870	3488	4281	14851	11352	7735
Hg	5C1a	928069	1000107	991259	983599	1025882	1003618	982197	902598	790120	758448	720160	654516	650489	563294	556835	490102	500241	495427	478114	187917	155065	146211	126010	112299	103224	95904	95131	83351	80572
Hg	5C1bii	997438	997438	997438	997438	997438	1305402	6411	8815	11219	13623	2196	2079	498	6156	8168	661	958	11226	16603	2095	546	1001	1951	1731	8637	12063	14888	14742	5662
Hg	5C1biv	357088	377496	378346	378739	378847	378005	377564	372944	367474	353154	331625	301678	293012	285233	278979	272616	267745	263524	259671	68275	63386	58402	53377	47599	42402	36987	31127	30698	29561

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	1A3dii	15195	15615	16034	16454	16873	17293	17822	18351	18881	19410	19939	20568	21197	21826	22455	23084	22313	21541	20770	19998	19227	24264	29301	34338	39376	17913	18387	18862	19336
HCB	1A2gviii	5841339	8226988	7421417	8229530	8187884	7449748	6746710	6695666	6698966	6687543	5860031	39433	8294554	4058891	1781541	651634	17377	3159	9389	6579	99222	84620	253974	171162	208915	155066	137786	176175	167874
HCB	2C7c	2692611	2515673	2681737	2444503	2490961	2629348	2435607	2628360	2469215	2615509	2613431	10456315	18803632	6476621	4953243	5573000	4442316	1908750	2651175	707796	933410	927975	648222	724728	527565	690239	824256	1006698	1073999
HCB	2H3	1946039	2764295	2481877	2770470	2762952	2490672	2244501	2236146	2234321	2231699	1869021	1858	1066	289104	1067	13963	1	1			33937	29837	93219	62218	76680	56916	50573	64664	61616