Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CA Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
PM2.5	6A	474672	488655	490997	508287	489686	491194	491492	494236	498167	499347	495516	497432	498946	494494	503910	502335	500429	496723

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A2e												25725260	1928	493
Pb	2A5a	197862482	206888340	204018663	187854155	174126996	133508339	152930118	51716121	18133075	27752251	212126	255148	51813341	67501134	67483660	64596750	65880237	56861815	43717074	30764796	19674296	9786047	7069121	3124208	880740	944440	1093284	1175518
Cd	1A1a	129720	127660	130600	136800	136510	139100	139590	136800	129070	131870	134930	137950	263132	639452	298536	250567	212638	450569	411204	392708	361246	746322	427460	363592	163576	139707	162112	121583
Cd	2A5a	2236672	4382199	6536756	323009	2707585	4980326	7033413	1029872	822098	806769	822267	717897	765656	2715216	2561229	2897541	2863459	2861644	2020333	1688563	861423	313715	330748	318088	330979	49441	50170	50082
Cd	2C7c	77389823	67068150	68406547	11812299	12437016	16538208	23877648	39876143	41105806	35739366	33143626	63946538	34655138	24149758	26119403	28262920	34374126	22067960	17134630	15767393	12062664	4711284	6131643	5241177	4505742	4966693	5043469	4232571
Cd	2H3	433986	434919	414400	422795	427391	587127	459189	404158	393891	451963	472439	485147	855726	657726	596825	275652	277424	372707	354546	315734	368353	368475	353313	314009	304287	296347	291491	270718
Cd	5C1biv	6444784	5807599	5170366	4533609	3896648	3259281	2622338	1984828	1347469	710316	73646	73729	70792	19894	17442	3897	3988	3980	3558	3565	3491	3820	3990	3970	4150	4301	4193	4262
Hg	1A1a	2297538	2170317	2398907	2192521	2106200	2042503	2144480	2294610	2424358	2417173	2143258	2138950	2075095	2406847	2317611	2173945	2002874	2181785	1636878	1674528	1584491	1017847	857310	846184	709160	738062	670462	602693
Hg	1A2gviii	439661	433170	438733	438654	453367	457654	427514	411194	389835	375726	399273	373728	331894	340175	334363	329432	301451	315269	300117	277305	266294	44281	39002	36600	36838	35904	35173	32073
Hg	2A1	293340	225511	210535	219344	251057	252819	282769	279246	281007	296864	308794	294647	294213	276882	165447	157006	237110	256732	234741	231796	246274	263797	253685	272576	261681	296209	259776	244956
Hg	2C1	690840	703877	713211	834984	749902	732034	745421	779577	788492	787062	773089	781440	855542	869480	789774	701566	651515	847818	479892	525013	571749	537019	593416	620814	595661	561246	722994	646285
Hg	2C7c	24617024	24578474	24493465	10006350	8163829	4593451	5609605	3351925	2803320	2249773	1917031	2099277	1729083	1272589	1878144	1681196	1263124	1393654	991005	823895	532106	207713	249126	354329	282330	173385	221178	143129
Hg	2H3	389686	389662	389644	389623	390545	390528	390497	390478	390450	390428	763400	147797	194700	225519	198624	71909	75925	56797	35597	22105	16738	18013	16112	13744	6362	8245	29716	22744
Hg	5C1a	956792	1033336	1023457	1017349	1001788	968907	956925	934220	819114	784724	727182	812492	674558	578152	569325	506112	511163	505828	482960	242667	204593	191072	169694	148040	133905	123725	115237	98622
Hg	5C1bi	111004	111004	111004	111004	111004	130004	125254	120505	115756	116	13	162907	165348	206298	182678	124798	30738	330238	526828	155268	112607	105237	11	11	11	11	10	10
Hg	5C1bii	997438	997438	997438	997438	997438	1305402	1174686	1177091	365874	13623	405704	239683	94501	6494	26919	7471	11587	28462	31902	10559	12490	2122	4377	1865	12203	14974	15683	17127

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	1A3dii	19929	20350	20770	21191	21612	22033	22562	23092	23622	24151	24681	25311	25940	26569	27199	27828	26485	25117	23750	22383	21016	25932	30848	35764	40680	18639	19075	19511
DIOX	6A	9598	10316	6987	10247	9205	9644	7125	4694	4611	3928	3544	3238	2663	6920	2631	2936	1026	529	1584	2126	849	1418	1583	688	2823	2235	1840	1081
HCB	1A2gviii	5841339	8226988	7421417	8229530	8187884	7449748	6746710	6695666	6698966	6687543	5860031	39433	8294554	4058891	1781541	651629	17377	3159	9389	6579	99222	84620	252563	171162	208915	155066	137786	176175
HCB	2H3	1946039	2764295	2481877	2770470	2762952	2490672	2244501	2236146	2234321	2231699	1869021	1858	1066	289104	1067	13963	1	1			33937	29837	92701	62218	76680	56916	50573	64664