Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CA Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A3c	164989	152837	159815	159258	164751	149210	145956	148042	142646	151015	153281	149228	137263	123221	121594	125695	129970	132888	136318	87029	109579	123409	124396	119728	123251	117275	108058
SOx	1A3dii	80368	83250	86133	89015	91897	94779	97924	101069	104213	107358	110502	113856	117209	120562	123916	127269	123351	119525	115699	111873	108142	108142	108142	108142	108142	13427	13800

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	6A	474672	488655	490989	508271	489686	491194	491492	494196	498136	499300	495448	497511	498869	494426	503817	502240	500341

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A2a	11337119	11337119	11337119	11337119	11337119	10203770	11337119	9851795	9571771	1603350	741189	1846346	1796526	3930924	3490479	997120	1097705	1297099	2677738	2160541	3445805	3062166	3249592	3361696	4157855	4118238	4748199
Pb	2A5a	197862482	206888340	204018663	187854150	174126990	133508327	152930104	51716053	18132997	27752219	12137161	14758546	10508040	10211966	11826963	10700190	10391008	11469782	10742469	7801561	10024828	9611409	6964496	3020669	761942	753046	910181
Pb	2C1	42550161	42550161	42550161	42550161	42550161	38296510	42550161	36975485	35924509	6017650	2781811	6929654	6742674	14753436	13100371	4679599	4792317	5276489	4843107	3493701	4838445	4774988	5296118	3842245	4574170	4012369	3754318
Pb	2H3	28717967	29641173	29751260	29581892	28012164	18848518	8606072	8770905	6520583	9139273	9798888	33859756	11656827	17236100	10520668	10443272	9599467	9154766	8631652	7032329	8298474	8339390	2234001	2088160	3405489	1855312	3114537
Cd	1A1a	129720	127660	130600	136800	136510	139100	139590	136800	129070	131870	134930	137950	194000	544050	275590	250868	212638	450569	411204	392708	361246	746322	427460	363592	163576	138404	160550
Cd	2A5a	2236672	4382199	6536756	323009	2244137	4415218	6578934	337191	253003	324384	276096	192655	8641	132257		361789	364825	365003	3684	280167	321172	290520	303466	295266	323649	18801	14399
Cd	2C7c	77389470	67067662	68406127	11812786	12896992	17098401	24328196	40562968	41670513	36218076	33685605	64467788	35399957	26711467	28659698	30777992	36852237	24544094	19134714	17166088	12600269	4738905	6166606	5272010	4518375	4997474	5079092
Cd	5C1biv	6443450	5806090	5168720	4531360	3894000	3256640	2619280	1981920	1344560	707190	69830	69830	66600	20338	17898	4418	3537	3537	3537	4774	4774	4774	4774	4774	4774	4774	4774
Hg	1A1a	2297538	2170317	2398907	2192521	2106200	2042503	2144480	2294610	2424358	2417173	2143230	2138950	2075095	2406847	2317611	2173945	2002874	2181785	1636878	1674528	1584491	1017847	857310	846184	712834	741929	718747
Hg	1A2a	84234	84714	86141	88455	86538	87819	92201	108835	114373	119488	122820	120356	121470	116745	119229	92149	37400	45762	137391	94715	147673	172909	179255	179760	162182	162387	157847
Hg	2A1	295488	227397	211515	217664	250178	252351	282204	280435	281614	296607	308705	294912	294477	276882	165447	157010	259559	256732	234741	231796	246274	263797	253685	272576	261681	296209	259776
Hg	2C1	930302	951736	967720	1165586	1032881	1003055	1020966	1059603	1071434	1078913	1082911	1068751	1150544	1110990	928878	751119	676624	843877	469468	429032	500647	510697	598584	616641	636523	630418	626213
Hg	2C7c	24616853	24578632	24492964	10510697	8164052	4593674	5610180	3352318	2803084	2249980	1917284	2100068	1729992	1273389	1878932	1681908	1263877	1400438	996874	830118	534347	207785	249210	354382	282374	173440	221246
Hg	2H3	389797	389773	389755	389734	390656	390638	390608	390589	390561	390539	763510	147767	194583	225380	198474	71738	75765	56620	35439	29173	26515	27756	26648	24180	17195	18285	29147
Hg	5C1a	996807	1072787	1130631	1059915	1087895	1059472	1033164	919953	804552	771031	712371	830217	706069	568104	545430	474895	480550	481739	463512	458277	434088	435657	431784	432824	424244	433814	419909
Hg	5C1bi	111000	111000	111000	111000	111000	130000	125250	120500	115750	111		162900	165335	206290	182670	124795	30740	330240	526828	155268	112608	105238	14	14	14	14	14
Hg	5E	1004033	1004033	1004033	1004033	1004033	1314033	7629	10049	11650	13713	423133	258313	95102	7673	29058	13474	23563	29039	35099	11539	19374	53447	46196	7023	64288	18147	19261
Hg	6A	975976	1033633	980624	969341	953509	918016	792080	643426	518050	480955	411596	417266	404817	392901	388768	378737	380940	377900	372287	372283	372284	372283	372281	372263	372264	372252	372253

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A1a	2905	4862	5053	5174	4929	5034	4957	4841	4841	4841	5050	5661	16310	9150	7258	3316	3585	3265	2622	2784	2397	1614	1556	1625	1975	1801	2717
DIOX	1A2gviii	5130	6073	5519	6252	6115	5878	6213	5927	5834	5774	5997	5903	2484	8415	12263	4934	2933	2044	2056	1382	5297	2211	1739	1511	1398	1377	1388
DIOX	6A	9598	10316	6987	10247	9205	9644	7125	4694	4611	3928	3544	3238	2663	6920	2631	2936	1026	529	1584	2126	849	1418	1583	688	2823	2235	1840
HCB	1A2gviii	678295	850381	783219	851911	810764	812508	848534	796758	800838	788819	812518	19504	4120496	1829709	1107081	651978	301933	3159	9389	6579	99222	84620	252563	171162	208915	155066	137786