Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CA Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A3c	164996	152840	159817	159260	164753	149227	145961	148056	142669	151026	153274	149318	137335	123514	121943	126136	130551	133728	137257	87843	110581	123564	124823	120195	123516	125432
NMVOC	1A1c	33056	32167	33964	35856	37119	39104	41248	42186	43062	40902	42282	42434	42115	51636	47368	39750	59272	57553	56830	48165	50660	39049	44492	60156	62372	56811
NMVOC	1A5b	579359	700794	706151	705012	691416	692718	672707	614980	566608	474311	417624	300733	288562	266006	271469	225034	218102	211786	202236	194789	187123	118637	107856	96326	97898	94213
SOx	1A1c	359266	350063	371737	380563	404446	388835	377804	337140	316680	325053	318490	313631	295131	311403	306506	309624	293562	279346	261835	261078	245780	239767	232902	216959	183290	165578
SOx	1A3dii	80368	83250	86133	89015	91897	94779	97924	101069	104213	107358	110502	113856	117209	120562	123916	127269	123351	119525	115699	111873	108142	108142	108142	108142	108142	10233
SOx	2C3	26226	33975	38363	41850	45512	41960	45936	47457	46599	44574	43627	51220	53624	50369	51799	55135	58073	56520	58516	55624	56371	61850	59946	56970	52795	54652

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	6A	474672	488655	490172	507371	489686	491194	491492	494193	498133	499267	495088	497504	498862	494424	503810	502269
PM10	6A	2808165	2901291	2921518	2946104	2920869	2922690	2923485	2965585	2966881	2961391	2963581	2967347	2970969	2966023	2981766	2982235
TSP	6A	9980925	10310730	10387210	10415999	10386520	10388675	10389821	10540096	10534091	10507820	10531727	10535536	10548510	10542417	10566987	10572166

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A2a	11337119	11337119	11337119	11337119	11337119	10203770	11337119	9851795	9571771	1603350	741189	1846346	1796526	3930924	3490479	997120	1097705	1297099	2677738	2160541	3445805	3062166	3249592	3361696	4157855	4118238
Pb	2A5a	197862482	206888340	204018663	187854150	174126990	133508327	152930104	51716053	18132997	27752219	12137161	14758546	10508040	10211966	11826963	10700190	10391008	11469782	10742469	7783734	10006130	9560122	6890604	2944232	714008	748129
Pb	2C1	42550161	42550161	42550161	42550161	42550161	38296510	42550161	36975485	35924509	6017650	2781811	6929654	6742674	14753436	13100371	4679599	4792317	5276489	4843107	3493701	4838445	4774988	5296118	3842245	4574170	4012369
Pb	2H3	28717887	29641075	29751165	29581776	28012072	18844018	8604241	8768783	6519147	9137425	9796048	33850284	11656827	17236100	10520615	10443272	9599467	9154766	8631530	7032307	8298449	8339390	2233999	2088158	3405484	1854617
Cd	1A1a	129720	127660	130600	136800	136510	139100	139590	136800	129070	131870	134930	137950	194000	544050	275590	243614	207953	449219	410462	389568	360976	745212	427100	363322	118079	131871
Cd	2A5a	2236672	4382199	6536756	323009	2244137	4415218	6578934	337191	253003	324384	276096	192655	8641	132257		361789	364825	365003	3684	278285	319365	285866	295495	286999	318241	18412
Cd	2C7c	77389470	67067662	68406127	11812786	12896992	17098401	24328196	40562968	41670513	36218076	33685605	64467788	35399957	26711467	28659698	30777992	36852237	24544094	19134714	17166088	12600269	4738905	6166606	5272010	4518375	4997474
Cd	5C1a	6819850	6157750	5494810	4832330	4169790	3507260	2844560	2181990	1519370	856740	195120	170320	66600	51848	50408	56179	53033	59388	82048	45421	51709	45772	41960	51402	48039	47537
Hg	1A1a	2247538	2120317	2348907	2142521	2056200	1992503	2094480	2244610	2374358	2367173	2047530	2088750	2060295	2369647	2310045	2165383	2003312	2176903	1623562	1669900	1581786	1009593	855766	845549	712032	789887
Hg	1A2a	84234	84714	86141	88455	86538	87819	92201	108835	114373	119488	122820	120356	121470	116745	119229	92149	37400	45762	137391	94715	147673	172909	179255	179760	162182	162387
Hg	2A1	295488	227397	211515	217664	250178	252351	282204	280435	281614	296607	308705	294912	294477	276882	165447	157010	259559	256732	234741	231796	246274	263797	253685	272576	261681	261948
Hg	2C1	930302	951736	967720	1165586	1032881	1003055	1020966	1059603	1071434	1078913	1082911	1068751	1150544	1110990	928878	751119	676624	843877	469468	429032	500647	510697	598584	616641	636523	630418
Hg	2C7c	24616853	24578632	24492964	10510697	8164052	4593674	5610180	3352318	2803084	2249980	1917284	2100068	1729992	1273389	1878932	1681908	1263877	1400438	996874	830118	534347	207785	249210	354382	282374	173440
Hg	2H3	389797	389773	389755	389734	390656	390638	390608	390589	390561	384949	763510	147767	194583	225380	198474	71738	75765	56620	35439	29173	26515	27756	26648	24180	17195	18285
Hg	5C1a	2615963	2699944	2746477	2674155	2682244	2925135	1562365	1405880	1236284	1176266	1440166	1338647	1074779	838366	824444	746659	750616	764388	733647	720075	686671	724584	713991	669915	718691	672691
Hg	5C1bi	179547	179547	179547	179547	179547	198547	193797	189047	184297	68658	109446	248713	216335	267420	216239	132217	41966	349648	552924	165316	118273	110481	3756	1917	1040	9911
Hg	6A	975976	1033633	980624	969341	953509	918016	792080	643426	518050	480955	411596	417266	404817	392901	388768	378737	380940	377900	372287	372283	372284	372283	372281	372263	372263	372263

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A1a	2903	4860	5051	5172	4927	5031	4955	4839	4839	4839	5048	5659	16308	9150	7255	3316	3583	3261	2615	2782	2391	1598	1546	1622	1965	1782
DIOX	1A2gviii	5169	6129	5594	6303	6160	5933	6268	5976	5876	5818	6043	5940	2524	8447	12289	4974	3212	2163	2112	1433	5357	2270	1770	1545	1431	1410
DIOX	1A3dii	19929	20350	20770	21191	21612	22033	22562	23092	23622	24151	24681	25311	25940	26569	27199	27828	26403	25050	23697	22345	21016	18628	16239	13851	11463	9075
DIOX	5C1a	317302	164538	170835	174048	166681	170027	166429	163303	120703	78103	70731	70194	54590	28528	26939	27136	20084	19863	18550	19098	9861	5499	2306	1047	335	1326
DIOX	6A	9598	10316	6987	10247	9205	9644	7125	4694	4611	3928	3544	3238	2663	6920	2631	2936	1026	529	1584	2126	849	1418	1583	688	2823	2236