Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CA Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
NOx	1A3c	164996	152840	159817	159260	164753	149227	145961	148056	142669	151026	153274	149318	137335	123514	121943	126136	130551	133728	137257	87843	110581	123564	124823	120241	122549
SOx	1A1c	359266	350060	371736	380559	404445	388835	377804	337140	316405	324928	318454	313593	294927	311403	306506	309624	298952	282700	265825	264666	247643	244418	235462	218377	184154
SOx	1A3dii	80414	83292	86171	89049	91927	94805	97946	101087	104228	107369	110510	113872	117233	120594	123956	127317	122803	118377	113951	109524	105125	86612	67117	47623	28129
SOx	2C3	26226	33975	38363	41850	45512	41960	45936	47457	46599	44574	43627	51220	53624	50369	51799	55135	58073	56520	58516	55624	56371	61850	59946	56970	52795
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	16731469	15972615	15563685	15268106	14823263	14148845	13489266	12643714	12029578	11599115	10897324	9996730	9801886	9797442	9302122	8646258	8215979	7838971	7696780	7347781	7229263	6660854	6385954	6266604	6368693

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pb	1A2a	11337119	11337119	11337119	11337119	11337119	10203770	11337119	9851795	9571771	1603350	741189	1846346	1796526	3930924	3490479	997120	1097705	1297099	2677738	2160541	3445805	3050613	3229936	3339290	4140911
Pb	2C1	42550161	42550161	42550161	42550161	42550161	38296510	42550161	36975485	35924509	6017650	2781811	6929654	6742674	14753436	13100371	4679599	4792317	5276489	4843107	3493701	4838445	4753463	5259495	3801380	4543244
Pb	2H3	28717887	29641075	29751165	29581776	28012072	18844018	8604241	8768783	6519147	9137425	9796048	33850284	11656827	17236100	10520615	10443272	9599467	9154766	8631530	7032307	8298454	8472882	2236528	2090655	3404418
Cd	1A1a	129720	127660	130600	136800	136510	139100	139590	136800	129070	131870	134930	137950	166070	520700	271460	243869	207953	449219	410462	389568	360976	741082	427100	363322	118079
Cd	2A5a	2236672	4382199	6536756	323009	2244137	4415218	6578934	337191	253003	324384	276096	192655	8641	132257		361789	364825	365003	3684	278265	280081	293236	295495	286999	318241
Cd	2C7c	77389470	67067662	68406127	11812786	12896992	17098401	24328196	40562968	41670513	36218076	33685605	64467788	35399957	26711467	28659698	30777992	36852237	24544094	19134714	17166088	12600269	4732825	6166485	5272010	4518375
Cd	5C1a	6819850	6157750	5494810	4832330	4169790	3507260	2844560	2181990	1519370	856740	195120	170320	66600	47430	45990	53842	40654	58522	74960	42244	46743	41228	28888	23656	20336
Hg	1A1a	2247538	2120317	2348907	2142521	2056200	1992503	2094480	2244610	2374358	2367173	2047530	2088750	2060295	2369647	2310045	2165383	2003312	2176903	1623562	1669900	1581786	1009593	855766	845549	762032
Hg	1A2gviii	441416	434540	440110	440556	454454	458501	430438	414206	392647	378337	398949	375374	332844	341285	336726	352666	424755	340204	304392	285508	274254	54632	59680	53921	38029
Hg	2A1	295488	227397	211515	217664	250178	252351	282204	280435	281614	296607	308705	294912	294477	276882	165447	157010	342012	256732	234741	231796	246274	263797	253685	272576	261681
Hg	2C1	688386	555817	414195	295697	324759	519400	449480	515483	511045	914062	877281	900521	978833	952023	761768	622369	910787	823320	816756	675372	358738	389035	467723	515106	497872
Hg	2C7c	24616853	24578632	24492964	10510697	8164052	4593674	5610180	3352318	2803084	2249980	1917284	2100068	1729992	1273389	1878932	1681908	1269808	1405381	996874	830118	534347	207785	249210	354382	282374
Hg	2H3	389892	389868	389850	389829	390750	390733	390704	390685	390657	385047	389729	82082	113015	127715	110548	43765	108950	115194	120352	114095	17063	15113	13987	10086	4497
Hg	5C1a	2459940	2438591	2634955	2536598	2614921	2860605	1484760	1174630	995857	1054206	1198255	1031153	901183	705734	699650	1006780	1059951	1442300	1117717	1100227	857128	518237	340718	282783	349777
Hg	5C1bi	179547	179547	179547	179547	179547	198547	193797	189047	184297	68658	109446	248713	216335	267420	216239	132217	41966	349648	552924	165316	118272	110480	108816	107116	106264
Hg	6A	975879	1033535	980527	969244	953412	917920	791978	643317	517933	480855	411343	417131	404817	392901	388649	378640	397630	397768	389187	380534	370444	353118	340947	325569	342697

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
DIOX	1A1a	2903	4860	5051	5172	4927	5031	4955	4839	4839	4839	5030	5562	16205	9064	7184	3316	3634	3261	2615	2782	2391	1598	1546	1622	1965
DIOX	1A2gviii	5169	6129	5594	6303	6160	5933	6268	5976	5876	5818	6043	5940	2524	8447	12289	4974	3212	2163	2112	1433	5357	2342	1777	1523	1463
DIOX	1A3bii	654	676	695	760	819	856	829	880	946	958	1090	1010	881	879	1184	1718	1480	1409	1484	1466	1599	1844	1864	1933	2045
DIOX	1A3dii	19935	20355	20775	21195	21616	22036	22565	23094	23624	24153	24682	25313	25943	26573	27204	27834	26242	24723	23204	21684	20172	17960	15578	13196	10813
DIOX	5C1a	317302	164538	170835	174048	166681	170027	166429	163303	120703	78103	70731	70194	54590	28528	26939	27136	20084	19863	18550	19098	9861	5499	2306	1047	335
DIOX	6A	9222	10245	6982	10051	9171	9416	7124	4681	4484	4136	3512	3430	2591	8718	2602	3068	1331	554	2034	2696	861	1579	1587	708	3046