Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CA Submission year: 2015

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2013
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2013
PMs: 2000 - 2013

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
NOx	1A3c	165067	152913	159886	159332	164829	149309	146049	148157	142708	151068	153356	149368	137398	123583	122013	126209	130603	133794	137328	87912	110661	123559	124776	125272
NOx	1A3dii	139794	143875	147956	152037	156118	160199	165502	170805	176107	181410	186713	191667	196621	201575	206529	211483	208096	204984	201872	198761	195693	254531	262868	271206
NMVOC	1B2av	156116	146248	142330	141579	142619	133130	128391	128783	129560	127361	129304	122557	119763	118064	115283	110960	76116	107171	103021	79188	78888	83837	76005	76286
SOx	1A3dii	80414	83292	86171	89049	91927	94805	97946	101087	104228	107369	110510	113872	117233	120594	123956	127317	122803	118377	113951	109524	105125	103937	85362	66787
SOx	2C3	28393	36742	40438	44048	47435	44280	48888	50697	50280	47428	47160	54124	57874	54396	56073	64741	62330	59990	62522	60440	61740	67260	64475	61641
CO	1A3bi	3917725	3819103	3795329	3514510	3295530	3034826	2784372	2594201	2249468	2226703	2019346	1943103	1760057	1712726	1610342	1408767	1286582	1160556	1106931	1031722	970314	864445	804614	766409

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Pb	2C1	42550161	42550161	42550161	42550161	42550161	38296510	42550161	36975485	35924509	6017650	2781811	6929654	6742674	14753436	13100371	4656623	4759547	5203527	4839196	3293114	4812889	4718239	5233523	3787814
Pb	2C2	10386631	10792603	12207050	12694359	12851560	13160419	13790430	14194344	14670112	14772648	15051010	15357578	15130698	5167071	1218273	1435282	538135	327813	553615	381296	367190	325410	311749	63057
Pb	2H3	28717887	29641075	29751165	29581776	28012072	18844018	8604241	8768783	6519147	9137425	9796048	33850284	12917928	8919942	6162331	10424380	9589590	9146627	8622793	7023081	8288882	12980998	1977409	2099343
Cd	1A1a	129720	127660	130600	136800	136510	139100	139590	136800	129070	131870	134930	137950	166070	520700	271460	278532	224369	462114	427121	405658	269411	696098	426800	363322
Cd	1A3dii	194051	201802	209553	217304	225055	232806	241408	250010	258611	267213	275815	284443	293071	301698	310326	318954	311729	304582	297435	290288	283192	296196	259370	222543
Cd	1A4bi	1276265	1254128	1286583	1319528	1289265	701432	747446	703960	654695	657501	679770	641238	675293	676506	653670	642187	621269	672881	669168	637241	624280	662186	638309	637321
Cd	2A5a	2236672	4382199	6536756	323009	2244137	4415218	6578934	337191	253003	324384	276096	192655	8641	132257		361789	364825	365003	3684	278255	280080	293235	300365	297467
Cd	5C1a	6815928	6154216	5491664	4829572	4167420	3505278	2842966	2180784	1518552	856310	195077	170277	66559	47449	46327	55170	47121	59359	78537	42697	46992	41709	28590	23811
Hg	1A1a	2247405	2120184	2348774	2142388	2056067	1992370	2094347	2244477	2374225	2367040	2047397	2088617	2060295	2369647	2310045	2167200	2004934	2145171	1618943	1671714	1563066	989881	859666	895079
Hg	1A2gviii	168350	165132	169211	169438	182193	205942	195520	199225	190053	188097	216951	212468	202873	228299	235896	281752	420685	336728	302489	285596	273098	55451	59254	58560
Hg	2A1	295488	227397	211515	217664	250178	252351	282204	280435	281614	296607	308705	294912	294477	276882	165447	157010	342012	256732	234741	231796	246274	263792	253685	272576
Hg	2C1	688419	555851	414231	295734	324797	519439	449519	515523	511086	914062	877281	900521	978833	952023	761768	622417	910787	823320	816756	675372	359129	388338	467723	515106
Hg	2C7c	24616853	24578632	24492964	10510697	8164052	4593674	5610180	3352318	2803084	2249980	1917284	2100068	1729992	1273389	1878932	1681908	1269808	1405381	996874	830118	534347	207785	249210	354382
Hg	2H3	380576	380551	380533	380512	381434	381417	381388	381368	381341	381319	380411	72764	91397	106097	98621	35118	108946	115190	120348	114095	17063	15113	13987	10086
Hg	5A	783145	788419	793238	799358	799402	934878	871946	876400	385111	207107	412130	324558	264080	151705	162980	141342	140865	149642	149698	127314	126505	129435	124420	126581
Hg	5C1a	2027326	2006011	2202399	2077233	2145254	2243979	2098625	1769332	1179442	1056645	1047719	907493	891335	746130	720314	1029818	1067758	1467324	1124574	1130357	863098	484283	319251	297026
Hg	5C1bi	182683	182683	182683	182683	182683	201683	199353	197023	194693	192363	124650	266135	216412	268901	218482	137896	53628	350086	555801	166238	125104	161822	45312	6616
Hg	6A	975681	1033318	980307	969023	953194	917699	791782	643161	517747	480665	411160	416973	404652	392746	388507	378638	397628	397767	389186	380533	370443	353117	340945	325586

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
DIOX	1A1a	2903	4860	5051	5172	4927	5031	4955	4839	4839	4839	5030	5562	16205	9064	7184	2975	3668	3291	2655	2803	2435	1646	1546	1622
DIOX	2H1	9595	9776	10044	10074	9822	9361	10021	9595	8515	7434	12295	8251	3296	26336	5834	2701	3235	3719	1564	1632	1827	1048	879	1527
DIOX	5C1a	314732	164467	170737	173939	166624	169958	166389	163289	120844	78399	71660	71117	55516	28528	27948	34590	20083	19855	18562	19114	9862	5617	2200	1047
DIOX	6A	2016	2016	2016	2016	2016	2016	2016	2016	2016	2016	2016	2016	2014	22379	2370	2500	433	238	563	1692	528	794	1360	529
HCB	1A2a	572921	590746	636582	582987	580274	599256	584304	600655	583984	592569	464957	585148	657943	679416	437146	691408	718245	884539	740873	404258	712602	707892	686534	537767
HCB	2C1	596155	612558	659821	604175	601892	622082	605409	623467	605399	615271	477439	606961	689131	732364	471214	801592	774248	945323	760800	439028	761361	753988	734434	587483
HCB	2C2	2078484	2351306	2559427	2353198	2290884	2317242	2371186	2329138	2338707	2278680	2305504	2308951	1949566									10	10
HCB	2C7c	2692462	2515288	2682192	2444374	2490932	2629447	2435646	2628538	2468849	2615154	2613434	10470153	18818640	5772368	3720794	4352263	4454178	1922094	2661257	716000	938353	918795	643391	722269
HCB	5C1bi	25768	24576	24676	24775	24676	24676	24676	24576	83811	81585	82641	914235	683608	10676	806	1939000	975833	705462	69030	52678	108894	562556	580386	448514