Technical Annual Status Report (Stage 2) for the CLRTAP Inventory Review: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BY Submission year: 2025

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden changes in time series data reported by countries. The analysis was limited to data provided in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format. Only data reported for at least three years were considered. Years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors were available have been converted to NFR14/NFR19. Only the converted sectors are in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) is more than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals in the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. more than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2023
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2023
PMs: 2000 - 2023

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number.

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
NOx	1A2a																12044		52	38	42	1309	673	927	907	823	760	472	429	432	612	1113	1388	1428	1435
NMVOC	1B2aiv																	42820	42934	45116	43283	25571	31816	33671	32877	34637	35746	28898	28898	28298	27744	25319	24103	21473	21473
NMVOC	1B2av																					9847	11272	14816	8741	8435	7857	8075	8277	8214	8015	8363	8063	8062	8062
NMVOC	1B2b																					6516	7320	6450	6940	6582	6407	9373	6239	6293	6299	6158	5245	5240	5240
SOx	1A2a																8863		4	1	80	2767	3057	3446	3361	2457	2072	780	576	541	734	1139	1726	1933	1975
SOx	1A2gviii												24152	20291	16722	10878		7840	1587	1488	2125	2	1	9	5	4	4	26	26	22	15	8	9	9	9
SOx	1A3bi												36200	35200	36200	3300	1390	1550	1530	1640	1550	31	37	39	38	37	33	34	34	57	65	58	35	38	30
SOx	1A4cii												7233	6206	5745	4554	650	730	720	770	730	33	36	37	32	33	31	31	32	28	28	33	32	32	32
SOx	1B2aiv																	35903	52347	29246	29234	14809	18426	19501	19041	20060	20702	16736	16736	16389	16068	14663	13959	12436	12436
NH3	2B10a	1418	1505	1390	1260	1448	1638	1583	1457	1571	1498		1515	1509	1515	1597	1761	1740	4960	4692	4692	1158	1207	1234	1258	1325	1378	1352	1364	1345	1117	1107	1250	1126	1126
NH3	3B4h	166656	160931	152760	145202	138358	131037	125196	122185	118813	113168		107348	102517	91718	90767	100080					5	6	6	6	6	5	6	6	0	6	5	5	4	3
CO	1A2a																31596		32	16	22	10364	10590	10963	10986	12659	7290	6646	6992	6710	8410	9910	10859	14805	15434
CO	1A2gviii												30488	28416	28645	28363		31246	10998	9870	8938	89	28	51	50	51	52	38	36	36	58	101	123	132	132
CO	1A3bi												613600	35200	637000	651100	356080	399480	394490	421650	399380	144488	133772	131170	127482	125952	116620	109472	111484	110291	123116	114646	92714	100101	118136

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
PM2.5	1A1a	4666	4649	4413	4740	565	440	4203	4055	4070	5081	3822	4094	3804	3036	4254	4268	4495	4652	4879	4176	4635	4925	4838	5873
PM2.5	1A2gviii	1801	1895	2365	2879	3835	3008	3710	4895	5229	5370	9	3	6	11	15	6	4	4	4	8	12	14	17	17
PM2.5	1A4ai	1093	1245	1118	1076	4544	3578	1000	855	833	825	973	1030	665	1776	593	440	449	414	540	697	747	823	915	915
PM2.5	3B4h	793	773	680	735	737	770					1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A1a	7337	7228	6794	7233	780	603	5969	5683	5643	7047	4444	4752	4416	3495	4917	4937	5208	5385	5646	4823	5410	5733	5631	6880
PM10	1A2gviii	2683	2759	3372	4022	5267	4400	5267	6898	7233	7471	9	3	6	11	15	6	4	4	4	8	12	14	17	17
PM10	1A4ai	1570	1771	1598	1522	8930	4936	1367	1148	1093	1010	1013	1071	698	1830	622	458	467	427	554	714	771	850	946	946
PM10	3B4h	3876	3776	3354	3598	3610	3769					2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	0	2	2	2	2	1
TSP	1A1a	9697	9506	8902	9457	909	752	7542	7160	7063	8743	5014	5296	4946	3858	5450	5473	5790	5962	6252	5333	6120	6435	6320	7802
TSP	1A2gviii	4347	4374	5144	5984	7625	6719	7423	10295	10120	10614	9	3	6	11	15	6	4	4	4	8	12	15	18	18
TSP	1A4ai	5834	6110	5316	4959	35718	14433	3771	2978	2681	2147	1066	1124	742	1927	660	484	491	448	582	750	811	894	995	995
TSP	2C7c	3933	3697	3631	3778	4218	4148	4157	3	4	6
TSP	3B4h	8614	8390	7453	7995	8023	8375					5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	0	5	5	4	3	3
BC	1A1a											129	134	127	97	139	139	148	151	158	135	159	166	162	202

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Pb	1A1a	13682318	13987220	9571032	7371369	6588340	5494442						2442000	2184716	1897850	1785143	1486000	1704000	2787000	2401000	7276000	541900	243100	348100	67200	139700	145900	216300	81100	111200	78000	628700	458200	448900	849300
Pb	1A1b	6861	10188	11112	10182	9509	6959															438600	471400	422400	394500	378800	431400	393500	294400	256100	252700	268600	230900	214900	214900
Pb	1A2a																5421000	5285000	1067000	1136000	854000	25400	27500	31100	29900	18400	18100	2300	2400	1900	3400	8900	16100	13900	19800
Pb	1A2gviii	33272640	40008128	39589773	34416779	29595698	23010240						18783000	22604016	24848637	23820849	22392000	24785000	31136000	33323000	33864000	100		200	100	100	100	600	600	400	200	100	100	100	200
Pb	1A3bi	734382000	451391000	387408000	323558000	302008000	109946000						1195000	1069385	1032376	1832884	2150000	2323000	553000	590000	605000	43700	49000	50100	51000	49300	45800	46700	48100	50700	48800	54100	71200	65800	65100
Pb	2A3																					2529000	1635000	1511000	1232300	1232300	1030300	851500	851500	470000	309000	296000	314000	345000	345000
Pb	2C1																		19939000	21850000	20028000	4007400	4168200	4304100	3591700	3896700	3865900	3398300	3648900	3859300	4076600	3839400	3710500	3296000	3671000
Pb	2C2																					681300	808000	808000	808000	947500	478300	478800	498400	486000	487900	504900	520100	701300	755300
Pb	2C7c	9884044	10384926	10350219	8946868	8326581	6904717						13360000	13333510	14026702	15912554	17024000	18803000		52000	53000
Pb	5C1bi						35000						4100000	3830272	71510	153657	141000	2221000	203000	307000	259000	223100	221600	177600	232800	279700	304200	497100	544400	507200	347600	228100	287200	105100	244400
Cd	1A1a	556950	570070	388400	301330	270640	226970						118000	108272	100022	96153	88000	100000	229000	187000	506000	43200	35500	23600	10100	14900	14900	19600	11100	12500	9900	33800	28600	27600	44200
Cd	1A2gviii	906628	953653	870028	728195	571307	479590						680000	829745	936801	1008805	1114000	1241000	1391000	1534000	1574000
Cd	2C1																		794000	881000	810000	507600	528000	545200	455000	493600	489700	430400	462200	488800	516400	486300	470000	417500	465000
Cd	2C7c	373835	402737	396312	341151	294635	249016						533000	530215	561037	634606	686000	761000
Cd	5C1bi						3000						351000	327998	104139	12656	12000	190000	17000	26000	22000	17200	17000	13700	17900	21600	23400	38300	41800	39000	26800	17600	22200	8100	18900
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2114401	2219344	1967419	1656996	1308126	1106038	1200000	1250000	1450000	1420000		1780000	1897606	1792307	1844305	2070000	2488000	2583000	2751000	3024000	758800	775800	792300	687200	727200	700900	666700	696300	722000	731700	726400	727000	647700	722500
Hg	1A2a																31000	33000	1000	1000	1000	14500	16200	18900	18300	11100	10800	300	300	300	600	3100	7300	6200	6200
Hg	1A2gviii	469095	489426	432600	360828	291205	246889						326000	396476	446477	490617	529000	590000	676000	740000	761000	300	100	200	200	200	100	100	100	100	200	300	400	400	400
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1074470	1101821	879477	721448	601528	510870	297000	310000	392000	380000		522000	565299	603438	632103	649000	716000	741000	814000	914000	296300	291600	292900	291100	323600	282400	275900	268900	258500	260200	283900	292500	295100	313600

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
HCB	1A1a													36363	1041153		46000	30000	44000	44000	64000	74200	72800	57200	39600	42700	38300	62700	12000	11600	3600	7300	9200	8500	9400
HCB	1A4ai													18984	2136835		18000	12000	10000	10000	9000	12600	11700	8000	23400	6900	5200	5400	4600	6600	8400	9400	10500	11900	12100
PCB	5C1bi													19100	27100	2417974	2204000	1459800	794000	1043000	482000	500	4400	14600