Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BY Submission year: 2023

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2021
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2021
PMs: 2000 - 2021

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
NOx	1A1a												28313	29107	28654	31654	29167	30373	25479	24247	25711	27693	16537	19876	23476	21266	20593	20881	21290	23197	22312	24788
NOx	1A2a																12044		52	38	42	34	45	21	13	7502	6366	6975	460	432	612	1113
NOx	1A4bi																4755	4955	4862	4700	4663	5036	5108	5526	4965	4574	4318	4679	4792	4676	4701	4546
SOx	1A2a																8863		4	1	80	7	5	992		1726	1609	1846	579	541	734	1139
NH3	3B4h	166656	160931	152760	145202	138358	131037	125196	122185	118813	113168		107348	102517	91718	90767	100080												6	0	6	5
CO	1A2a																31596		32	16	22	19	51	6	4	13587	8417	10575	7027	6710	8410	9910
CO	1A3bi												613600	35200	637000	651100	356080	399480	394490	421650	399380	330900	323498	327103	307122	307122	279135	277378	111484	110291	123229	114646

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
PM2.5	1A1a	4666	4649	4413	4740	565	440	4203	4055	4070	5081	4826	6732	8484	2225	2091	2491	1840	4956	4879	4176	4635
PM2.5	1A2gviii	1801	1895	2365	2879	3835	3008	3710	4895	5229	5370	5646	5356	5610					4	4	8	12
PM2.5	1A3biii						1430	1600	1580	1690	1600	1770	1604	1644	1381	1381	1158	635	1110	1167	966	978
PM2.5	3B4h	793	773	680	735	737	770												1	0	1	1
PM10	1A1a	7337	7228	6794	7233	780	603	5969	5683	5643	7047	6633	8779	11536	2702	2511	3151	2105	5740	5646	4823	5410
PM10	1A2gviii	2683	2759	3372	4022	5267	4400	5267	6898	7233	7471	7866	7519	7763					4	4	8	12
PM10	1A3biii						1460	1630	1610	1730	1630	1851	1638	1679	1410	1410	1183	659	1110	1167	966	978
PM10	3B4h	3876	3776	3354	3598	3610	3769												3	0	2	2
TSP	1A1a	9697	9506	8902	9457	909	752	7542	7160	7063	8743	8275	10670	14335	3141	2899	3757	2346	6355	6252	5333	6120
TSP	1A2gviii	4347	4374	5144	5984	7625	6719	7423	10295	10120	10614	10905	15079	10208					5	4	8	12
TSP	2B10a	3182	3252	3360	3859	4008	4123	3876	3754	3504	3139	3589	2774	98	1401	1661	1679	1757	4260	4554	4266	4328
TSP	2C7c	3933	3697	3631	3778	4218	4148	4157	3	4	6	13	24	5	5
TSP	3B4h	8614	8390	7453	7995	8023	8375												6	0	5	5
BC	1A2f																	1	79	68	182	255
BC	1A3bii																		107	120	180	17

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Pb	1A1a	13682318	13987220	9571032	7371369	6588340	5494442						2442000	2184716	1897850	1785143	1486000	1704000	2787000	2401000	7276000	6779000	2958000	198000	76000	114000	123000	215000	83400	111200	78000	628700
Pb	1A2a																5421000	5285000	1067000	1136000	854000	939000	1113000	1905000	808000	963000	499000	515000	2400	1900	3400	8900
Pb	1A2f																								22491000	3023000	3048000	3053000	1800	1100	2900	5700
Pb	1A2gviii	33272640	40008128	39589773	34416779	29595698	23010240						18783000	22604016	24848637	23820849	22392000	24785000	31136000	33323000	33864000	36594000	37632000	38090000					600	400	200	100
Pb	1A3bi	734382000	451391000	387408000	323558000	302008000	109946000						1195000	1069385	1032376	1832884	2150000	2323000	553000	590000	605000	635000	637000	541000	19000	58000	50000	49000	47700	50700	48800	54100
Pb	2A3																												851500	470000	309000	296000
Pb	2C1																		19939000	21850000	20028000	21843000	23059000	23585000	13820000	3897000	3868000	3398000	3648900	3859300	4076600	3839400
Pb	2C7c	9884044	10384926	10350219	8946868	8326581	6904717						13360000	13333510	14026702	15912554	17024000	18803000		52000	53000
Pb	5C1bi						35000						4100000	3830272	71510	153657	141000	2221000	203000	307000	259000	130000		1000					544400	507200	347600	228100
Cd	1A1a	556950	570070	388400	301330	270640	226970						118000	108272	100022	96153	88000	100000	229000	187000	506000	576000	272000	9000	7000	10000	14000	15000	11600	12500	9900	33800
Cd	1A2f																								1066000	73000	67000	66000	200	100	500	2000
Cd	1A2gviii	906628	953653	870028	728195	571307	479590						680000	829745	936801	1008805	1114000	1241000	1391000	1534000	1574000	1637000	1675000	1736000
Cd	2C1																		794000	881000	810000	884000	918000	970000	476000	494000	490000	430000	462200	488800	516400	486300
Cd	2C7c	373835	402737	396312	341151	294635	249016						533000	530215	561037	634606	686000	761000
Cd	5C1bi						3000						351000	327998	104139	12656	12000	190000	17000	26000	22000	11000							41800	39000	26800	17600
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2114401	2219344	1967419	1656996	1308126	1106038	1200000	1250000	1450000	1420000		1780000	1897606	1792307	1844305	2070000	2488000	2583000	2751000	3024000	3228000	2995000	2869000	1735000	731000	715000	667000	696800	722000	733400	727300
Hg	1A1a	558332	567969	398969	309771	277237	232064						157000	134976	117523	106473	62000	69000	38000	47000	128000	40000	24000	27000	17000	18000	18000	22000	16200	18800	16100	36100
Hg	1A2a																31000	33000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	35000	1000	15000	15000	13000	300	300	600	3100
Hg	1A2f																								457000	149000	126000	123000	100	200	200	500
Hg	1A2gviii	469095	489426	432600	360828	291205	246889						326000	396476	446477	490617	529000	590000	676000	740000	761000	788000	804000	826000					100	100	200	300
Hg	5C1biii																					0		1000		1000	1000	1000	13800	2200	4000	8900
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1074470	1101821	879477	721448	601528	510870	297000	310000	392000	380000		522000	565299	603438	632103	649000	716000	741000	814000	914000	854000	863000	924000	531000	224000	219000	198000	270000	258500	260200	283900

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
HCB	1A4ai													18984	2136835		18000	12000	10000	10000	9000	11000	10000	11000	59000	61000	60000	61000	3200	6600	8400	9400