Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BY Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A2a																12044		52	38	42	34	45	21	13	7502
SOx	1A1a												26640	27182	20899	23476	16928	23752	4189	13799	86718	9622	2911	11599	3492	4673
SOx	1A1b												526	529	446	400	378	767	973	1060	997	1094	1375		903	17523
SOx	1A2a																8863		4	1	80	7	5	992		1726
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	637000	652000	458000	382000	324000	275000	246300	208500	190000	163700		150723	142719	131196	95472	79490	94210	100160	84280	157780	58624	63173	67564	51340	53448
NH3	3B4h	166656	160931	152760	145202	138358	131037	125196	122185	118813	113168		107348	102517	91718	90767	100080
CO	1A2a																31596		32	16	22	19	51	6	4	13587
CO	1A3bi												613600	35200	637000	651100	356080	399480	394490	421650	399380	330900	323498	327103	307122	307122

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	1A4bi	7752	7422	6829	6511	16578	6865	7367	6825	6293	5634	5894	6511	6241	5666	4577
PM2.5	2B10a						33	36	40	40	38	37	39	31	1127	1344
PM10	1A4bi	8379	7973	7320	6984	17572	7356	7885	7299	6721	6015	6300	6962	6680	6065	4890
TSP	1A4bi	9045	8568	7853	7497	18696	7890	8450	7818	7190	6433	6745	7455	7192	6500	5233
TSP	2B10a	3182	3252	3360	3859	4008	4123	3876	3754	3504	3139	3589	2774	98	1401	1661
TSP	2C7c	3933	3697	3631	3778	4218	4148	4157	3	4	6	13	24	5	5

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A1a	13682318	13987220	9571032	7371369	6588340	5494442						2442000	2184716	1897850	1785143	1486000	1704000	2787000	2401000	7276000	6779000	2958000	198000	76000	114000
Pb	1A2a																5421000	5285000	1067000	1136000	854000	939000	1113000	1905000	808000	963000
Pb	1A3bi	734382000	451391000	387408000	323558000	302008000	109946000						1195000	1069385	1032376	1832884	2150000	2323000	553000	590000	605000	635000	637000	541000	19000	58000
Pb	2C7c	9884044	10384926	10350219	8946868	8326581	6904717						13360000	13333510	14026702	15912554	17024000	18803000		52000	53000
Pb	5C1bi						35000						4100000	3830272	71510	153657	141000	2221000	203000	307000	259000	130000		1000
Cd	1A1a	556950	570070	388400	301330	270640	226970						118000	108272	100022	96153	88000	100000	229000	187000	506000	576000	272000	9000	7000	10000
Cd	1A2gviii	906628	953653	870028	728195	571307	479590						680000	829745	936801	1008805	1114000	1241000	1391000	1534000	1574000	1637000	1675000	1736000
Cd	1A4cii	1242	58886	58239	53062	7765	6471						16000	20000	6666	5737	6000	7000	6000	7000	6000	5000	4000	9000	8000	7000
Cd	2B10a	38460		15165	10215	6285	7770						13000	11655	13770	18150	21000	23000	24000	26000	27000	29000	28000	32000	34000	28000
Cd	2C1																		794000	881000	810000	884000	918000	970000	476000	494000
Cd	2C7c	373835	402737	396312	341151	294635	249016						533000	530215	561037	634606	686000	761000
Cd	5C1bi						3000						351000	327998	104139	12656	12000	190000	17000	26000	22000	11000
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2114401	2219344	1967419	1656996	1308126	1106038	1200000	1250000	1450000	1420000		1780000	1897606	1792307	1844305	2070000	2488000	2583000	2751000	3024000	3228000	2995000	2869000	1735000	731000
Hg	1A1a	558332	567969	398969	309771	277237	232064						157000	134976	117523	106473	62000	69000	38000	47000	128000	40000	24000	27000	17000	18000
Hg	1A2a																31000	33000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	35000	1000	15000
Hg	1A2gviii	469095	489426	432600	360828	291205	246889						326000	396476	446477	490617	529000	590000	676000	740000	761000	788000	804000	826000
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1074470	1101821	879477	721448	601528	510870	297000	310000	392000	380000		522000	565299	603438	632103	649000	716000	741000	814000	914000	854000	863000	924000	531000	224000

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A2gviii												1788	2067	2200	4834	2087	2031	2483	2697	2796	2521	2954	3035