Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BG Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A1b						3		9	5505	5193	4238	4267	4351	4548	3526	2737	1947	2573	11	9	12	11	1196	1249	969	1190	1400	1681	1296	446
NOx	1A3bi	31660	15132	19147	22456	22572	24759	21174	16712	20545	20967	22312	22024	23402	23117	21630	21685	23069	21672	21305	20962	19477	18345	18957	17053	18713	19901	19295	17947	17575	17614
NOx	1A3di(ii)	4679	23012	21518	20811	20972	21757	18909	706	5495	629	4867	7393	8031	10493	8783	8352	8019	3749	9206	16013	7513	5753	4827	6988	6242	6590	5954	6177	6380	5926
NMVOC	1A3ai(ii)	3835	3287	4508	6043	4900	4865	3193	2364	2083	1124	1289	1670	2000	2562	2463	3025	2893	2926	3405	2446	2694	2727	2628	2562	2727	2843	3422	3830	4110	3903
NMVOC	1A3bi	30822	14670	17912	20785	20019	22093	18640	12969	15887	15439	15302	14105	14930	14471	12487	12187	13028	11561	11021	10820	9756	8661	8097	7064	7560	7428	6726	5732	4904	4361
NMVOC	1A3bii	6654	3380	4158	4861	4564	4994	4137	2671	3280	3048	2634	2181	2105	2026	1815	1692	1238	959	876	798	717	660	639	511	550	568	509	454	431	412
NMVOC	1B2av	4521	2139	2541	3270	7049	3600	3107	2123	2735	2667	2964	2032	3980	2036	2319	2105	3154	2286	2368	2438	2367	2211	2153	1895	1886	1988	2033	2059	1954	2167
NMVOC	2D3e	243193	243193	243193	212102	6484	1208	1115	184	701	764	977	966	705	415	437	322	318	239	71	86	112	124	166	70	90	81	133	139	101	114
NMVOC	2D3g	3513	3183	3187	2918	2832	3691	827	718	534	452	537	526	511	4504	668	975	1914	488	332	276	316	328	249	226	443	502	520	438	236	212
NMVOC	2H2	8068	7178	7247	7573	5968	8227	7794	5924	4290	3781	10277	10277	10105	4278	5424	8528	3972	4410	4485	14831	5090	6382	7195	8867	4590	6086	5209	5866	5295	5797
NMVOC	3De	3149	3149	3162	3175	3188	3201	3213	3225	3237	3248	3234	3221	3207	3193	3179	3165	3150	3136	3122	3107	3092	3078	3063	3061	3068	3075	3081	3088	2870	2891
SOx	1A2a	204029	160803	125444	119860	110829	109308	105751	110229	69619	43807	86872	36221	30135	27262	23827	23194	16269	7003	6741	4127	2886	34157	11913	1172	1008	1125	1368	2022	1434	2507
SOx	1A4bi	24976	23919	30625	32569	23641	19181	23990	21826	20875	13782	9251	6016	11040	13126	10032	9107	9755	8322	7778	5473	7542	9330	9061	7467	5303	5359	6024	6332	4663	4184
SOx	1B2aiv	5142	2850	1492	3531	4315	4955	4311	3698	3444	3504	3295	3318	3237	3123	3275	3834	4408	4400	4431	3873	3394	3151	3654	3486	3195	3743	3880	4206	3645	5165
NH3	2B7	942	804	465	234	406	716	779	757	732	622	832	1011	930	986	1028	1052	1055	1098	1129	752	1985	1256	1324	1247	1384	1328	1366	1386	1390	1317
NH3	3B4f	5517	5517	5489	5298	5088	4833	4656	4757	4314	3783	3636	3419	2935	2394	2066	1738	1485	1311	1136	962	893	856	798	765	712	558	403	219	298	408
CO	1A3ai(i)	36192	31022	42543	57029	46243	45909	30130	22308	19656	10608	12168	15756	18876	24180	23244	28548	27300	27612	32136	23088	25428	25740	24804	24180	25740	26832	32292	36145	38786	36830
CO	1A3ai(ii)	242208	207607	284714	381657	309471	307234	201641	149292	131544	70992	81432	105444	126324	161820	155556	191052	182700	184788	215064	154512	170172	172260	165996	161820	172260	179568	216108	241896	259564	246479
CO	1A3bi	419540	196735	233889	265671	248217	268938	221756	141305	171887	160689	145554	125456	130097	122808	104947	97439	106106	94170	89880	87967	79084	69915	64689	55319	59836	59455	54762	49080	42815	38976
CO	1A3bii	74758	37998	46988	55217	51945	57238	47678	30563	37794	35154	31335	25936	25801	24569	21804	19863	13896	10649	9339	8475	7431	6558	6078	4787	5137	5160	4405	3913	3636	3442
CO	1A4bi	164415	144072	180588	188081	143289	125313	156481	144773	169020	131294	130848	110502	153783	168136	155833	148443	157775	145397	147779	137525	157872	173231	173452	163079	148366	145563	155722	157210	143412	140046
CO	2B7	9416	8039	4650	2335	4059	7164	7795	7567	7325	6215	8323	10108	9300	9859	10279	10516	10553	10982	11291	7523	19852	12564	13243	12474	13842	13281	13662	13861	13904	13167

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	1A2a	979	887	761	1065	737	922	884	786	315	5	0	18	7	0	0	0	0	4	3	292
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	25314	23763	28011	30659	30401	30429	31831	30719	30566	29037	30893	32859	33087	31784	30887	31507	31634	31488	30217	30071
PM2.5	NTCOMPL(NECD)	25314	23763	28011	30659	30401	30429	31831	30719	30566	29037	30893	32859	33087	31784	30887	31507	31634	31488	30217	30071
PM2.5	NTCOMPLIANCE	25314	23763	28011	30659	30401	30429	31831	30719	30566	29037	30893	32859	33087	31784	30887	31507	31634	31488	30217	30071
PM10	3Dc	5867	5842	5817	5791	5766	5740	5715	5689	5663	5636	5610	5583	5557	5553	5565	5577	5589	5602	5206	5245
TSP	1A2a	8932	5680	5231	6692	5149	5810	5011	4822	2813	519	785	1477	940	733	701	571	647	640	709	350
TSP	1A4bi	19890	17986	23262	24732	24335	23475	24901	23386	24220	23708	26384	28250	28474	27468	25979	25381	26961	27054	25418	25057
TSP	1B1a	2035	2080	2022	2111	2140	1977	2092	2294	2315	2172	2349	2972	2684	2302	2525	2904	2539	2800	2477	2330
TSP	3Dc	5867	5842	5817	5791	5766	5740	5715	5689	5663	5636	5610	5583	5557	5553	5565	5577	5589	5602	5206	5245
BC	1A4cii	251	232	238	237	223	234	239	208	120	132	132	142	144	138	131	137	126	124	133	132

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1a	3854500	3337773	3078035	3521129	3726875	3712246	3716520	3580771	3535919	3140913	2721905	2402210	2392492	2777299	2736799	2718041	2719381	3420233	2166528	1744707	1640044	1855319	1088037	929486	870791	850654	824496	872839	867501	3019774
Pb	1A2a	8560674	6893073	12813709	13368567	19047920	20465589	18932502	20106464	16717239	14284884	15154148	13881211	7229208	9943162	7184356	14161892	13484013	12211711	5281974	566289	514540	558665	480324	424224	409627	348939	8102	363578	342011	304471
Pb	1A2b	60897960	47277055	44929500	87855100	84641170	103430476	129071295	101242641	117878294	115682799	108734935	108343290	67801743	103770550	106466460	83222005	79900283	76136899	152000390	59847231	46661256	49474246	52971901	56125369	63859654	57369195	50282019	55555022	57035018	664455
Pb	1A2f	18330290	15601716	7720181	4854222	3992206	4458568	5191015	4629372	3897986	3026165	2634483	2614493	2802955	2328862	4075370	5016488	6760859	6851632	8646696	6607375	6920295	7916912	7478943	7964764	9398675	10094153	11274123	11534234	10559045	1257219
Pb	1A3bi	193626734	90148405	114056581	134562323	136042810	150536597	130387637	85188244	112312941	110941063	93865165	81152701	88562548	85792564	2825820	2750785	3409126	19427	65675	1141	1102	1071	1060	875	1017	1081	1061	1085	1080	1107
Pb	1A3bii	59334249	28785561	37550832	45007710	45115032	49691899	42375916	27638434	36522877	35306808	29445567	25150126	26200555	24723261	792233	774423	544505	2765	8171	237	222	219	219	180	213	235	231	236	252	264
Pb	1A3biv	20663713	9333831	11381573	12555317	12058390	12734392	10486924	6744862	8347127	7794992	6138210	5060536	5199233	4646860	46773	44280	40541	236	839	14	14	13	13	11	13	14	15	18	19	19
Pb	1A4bi	4258859	3917473	5037833	5287757	3913412	3225630	4094257	3804326	3854519	2670200	2074817	1511203	2461679	2833280	2339432	2168822	2314793	2043946	1986034	1610639	2021066	2361392	2328382	2049988	1666894	1658773	1815201	1868475	1564900	1454298
Pb	2C1	67096150	25632737	8672804	10449136	13182680	14390410	12982505	13859560	11370829	10279007	10432873	10237784	8861975	10969991	9399992	8954777	9121537	8090450	5475292	1935769	1979659	2233196	1700075	1407190	1648473	1465766	1427510	1740022	1777132	1498063
Pb	2G	860488	860488	849416	846903	843665	839390	835008	829228	823939	819985	841369	1044828	693381	520680	852016	1512654	973396	920423	909935	683505	1820719	397221	599380	1363105	1094074	429355	1000762	1159517	895243	1742280
Cd	1A1a	640557	516775	428583	479722	435501	382174	393121	320374	317606	262406	221172	198784	187340	216213	210203	207447	197574	235184	194445	188252	129346	124056	73089	59994	63282	54313	57844	59470	60161	357894
Cd	1A1b									226554	223318	156180	173493	180017	188219	144039	105203	65469	101028	451	452	499	543	2150	209	1035	1096	216	229	188	15506
Cd	1A1c	291777	291777	291777	428439	419903	474009	435333	467184	347329	313561	376794	452005	399749	440520	332976	297575	266201	210100	109161
Cd	1A2a	1770345	1354953	1104324	1043989	983305	971972	886825	886728	641401	439767	396917	353389	292976	398680	341923	389140	251920	220522	115541	134099	39717	61408	38777	19982	17432	17294	4072	17126	12751	72108
Cd	1A2b	1690171	1256521	999456	1049030	1306241	1263013	1604501	1515730	1481991	1355712	1906903	1821383	1644308	1700670	1966228	1478731	1483814	1247581	1427688	819058	538372	573151	610099	713846	1575689	666741	860061	782418	860135	259193
Cd	1A2f	324569	276255	136522	88399	78007	86807	95460	86595	76405	63489	57585	58146	61701	56325	86308	105741	143033	130367	160035	115003	115357	130986	123951	131004	152501	166408	185160	189985	174481	69537
Cd	2G	139564	139564	115123	114140	125836	130973	133698	126945	108478	106564	105967	118958	114383	119574	116068	111739	84311	111261	89957	81364	58396	62813	71923	84483	79703	96354	116090	83506	64121	59486
Hg	1A1a	546560	469463	423404	475460	494044	490871	492437	471535	469404	410858	364983	328973	321615	377044	373163	366352	367055	444126	296312	249089	235824	265918	167418	143597	149166	136053	142457	147006	139912	581585
Hg	1A1b						5		15	72642	71508	50969	55809	57722	60289	46297	34322	22154	32994	165	145	162	175	631	18	281	503	274	227	355	2851
Hg	1A2a	598293	460779	412952	396358	406424	410626	378435	393024	288951	212050	208011	167886	127195	174632	141059	181101	138731	122830	60471	43372	11802	26046	14370	6189	5470	5981	3265	6977	5163	16476
Hg	1A2b	120150	97315	221826	241982	265290	296215	304014	424846	320035	319174	291697	273457	249355	940963	831909	214708	219360	220301	276247	238235	225754	198249	188327	214466	220713	201098	224227	203386	215886	53502
Hg	1A2f	807820	687962	341866	252898	289529	320908	292547	283557	288496	284653	273681	285395	296635	319336	381562	461247	628640	443178	491610	270003	215134	231663	223390	221576	214365	267596	288054	302550	285605	3685
Hg	1A4bi	156823	145717	186508	197083	145159	119188	149686	136863	134896	91745	67112	47017	79904	93286	75032	69319	74336	65166	62606	49137	62887	74953	73413	63216	49572	50075	55033	57110	46652	43031
Hg	1B2aiv	42299	23445	12271	29044	35491	40759	35465	30416	28330	28820	27101	27290	26627	25689	26943	31538	36261	36190	36445	31860	27922	25923	30059	28672	26285	30789	31916	34600	29987
Hg	2C1	149064	112993	108460	130872	157010	173334	153390	160899	131116	116825	121087	123263	104284	129581	113168	107919	113917	101289	78905	37226	38070	42946	32694	27061	31701	28188	27452	33462	34176	28
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2562253	2119008	1808386	1832890	1899733	1977323	1917059	2000498	1832857	1627834	1512078	1418615	1367557	2256230	2130445	1615381	1747956	1584936	1426806	1018119	909079	965794	829943	784566	770513	795938	844942	867651	830402	781252
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2562253	2119008	1808386	1832890	1899733	1977323	1917059	2000498	1832857	1627834	1512078	1418615	1367557	2256230	2130445	1615381	1747956	1584936	1426806	1018119	909079	965794	829943	784566	770513	795938	844942	867651	830402	781252
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	2562253	2119008	1808386	1832890	1899733	1977323	1917059	2000498	1832857	1627834	1512078	1418615	1367557	2256230	2130445	1615381	1747956	1584936	1426806	1018119	909079	965794	829943	784566	770513	795938	844942	867651	830402	781252

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1A2b	3810	2951	2650	3120	3873	3808	5024	4308	4952	4588	2824	2716	4116	4031	4864	4474	4322	3873	4093	4510	4120	4850	4887	5674	5808	5591	0	0	5911	7945
HCB	1A1a	1545205	1373260	1269793	890952	1442760	1430459	1395225	1426935	1489595	1313407	1309771	1347081	1373701	1563409	1531004	1497426	1576439	1814815	1794924	2142589	2142589	2142589	1843340	1535236	1669973	1717710	1512721	1540636	1362821
PCB	1A4bi	4700168	4399818	5653988	5952011	4325888	3494960	4420530	4109333	3911100	2571601	1703757	1094736	2035501	2428082	1841334	1668874	1787647	1520047	1414471	977260	1363232	1698499	1646718	1346837	938987	951598	1073655	1131227	818105	729929