Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BG Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	1A1b						3		9	5505	5193	4238	4267	4351	4548	3526	2737	1947	2573	11	9	12	11	1196	1249	969	1190	1400	1681	1296
NOx	1A3bi	31370	15000	18987	22282	22405	24583	21032	16624	20438	20869	22234	21963	23342	23068	21624	21678	23058	21660	21293	20950	19472	18352	18980	17086	18771	20008	19445	18148	17903
NOx	1A3di(ii)	4679	23012	21518	20811	20972	21757	18909	706	5495	629	4867	7393	8031	10493	8783	8352	8019	3749	9206	16013	7513	5753	4827	6988	6242	6590	5954	6177	6380
NOx	1A4cii	29859	15722	13562	15699	13167	11867	11960	5852	7478	7873	7772	7203	7370	7337	6901	7270	7404	6466	3721	4100	4100	4410	4479	4273	4066	4238	3894	3832	4129
NMVOC	1A3ai(ii)	3835	3287	4508	6043	4900	4865	3193	2364	2083	1124	1289	1670	2000	2562	2463	3025	2893	2926	3405	2446	2694	2727	2628	2562	2727	2843	3422	3830	4110
NMVOC	1A3bi	30538	14540	17761	20622	19869	21935	18513	12891	15795	15356	15235	14053	14879	14429	12483	12181	13019	11552	11011	10810	9747	8652	8090	7059	7557	7429	6734	5745	4924
NMVOC	1A3bii	6595	3351	4123	4823	4531	4959	4109	2655	3261	3032	2621	2171	2096	2018	1814	1691	1238	959	876	798	717	660	640	512	552	571	513	459	437
NMVOC	1B2av	4521	2139	2541	3270	7049	3600	3107	2123	2735	2667	2964	2032	3980	2036	2319	2105	3154	2286	2368	2438	2367	2211	2153	1895	1886	1988	2033	2059	1954
NMVOC	2D3e	342526	342526	342526	298735	9133	1701	1571	259	987	1076	1376	1361	993	585	615	454	448	337	100	122	157	174	234	98	127	113	187	196	142
SOx	1A2a	204029	160803	125444	119860	110829	109308	105751	110229	69619	43807	86872	36221	30135	27262	23827	23194	16269	7003	6741	4127	2886	34157	11913	1172	1008	1125	1368	2022	1434
SOx	1A4bi	24976	23919	30625	32569	23641	19181	23990	21826	20875	13782	9251	6016	11040	13126	10032	9107	9755	8322	7778	5473	7542	9330	9061	7467	5303	5359	6024	6332	4663
SOx	1B2aiv	5142	2850	1492	3531	4315	4955	4311	3698	3444	3504	3295	3318	3237	3123	3275	3834	4408	4400	4431	3873	3394	3151	3654	3486	3195	3743	3880	4206	3645
SOx	2H1	6604	4731	6128	6787	6954	8737	8374	7304	5272	4073	4487	4869	4508	6648	6786	6277	6427	4571	4389	1443	5554	6973	5465	6868	7204	1993	7198	7065	6823
NH3	2B7	942	804	465	234	406	716	779	757	732	622	832	1011	930	986	1028	1052	1055	1098	1129	752	1985	1256	1324	1247	1384	1328	1366	1386	1390
NH3	3B4f	5554	5517	5489	5298	5088	4833	4656	4757	4314	3783	3636	3419	2935	2394	2066	1738	1485	1311	1136	962	893	856	798	765	712	558	403	219	298
CO	1A3ai(i)	36192	31022	42543	57029	46243	45909	30130	22308	19656	10608	12168	15756	18876	24180	23244	28548	27300	27612	32136	23088	25428	25740	24804	24180	25740	26832	32292	36145	38786
CO	1A3ai(ii)	242208	207607	284714	381657	309471	307234	201641	149292	131544	70992	81432	105444	126324	161820	155556	191052	182700	184788	215064	154512	170172	172260	165996	161820	172260	179568	216108	241896	259564
CO	1A3bi	415677	194995	231913	263581	246361	267011	220243	140390	170843	159769	144826	124901	129559	122364	104894	97377	106009	94071	89775	87856	78968	69803	64582	55230	59745	59393	54739	49092	42890
CO	1A3bii	74086	37673	46598	54789	51560	56831	47358	30367	37567	34954	31167	25808	25679	24466	21791	19848	13882	10636	9328	8465	7421	6550	6072	4783	5134	5162	4411	3921	3652
CO	1A4bi	164415	144072	180588	188081	143289	125313	156481	144773	169020	131294	130848	110502	153783	168136	155833	148443	157775	145397	147779	137525	157872	173231	173452	163079	148366	145563	155722	157210	143412
CO	2B7	9416	8039	4650	2335	4059	7164	7795	7567	7325	6215	8323	10108	9300	9859	10279	10516	10553	10982	11291	7523	19852	12564	13243	12474	13842	13281	13662	13861	13904

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM2.5	1A2a	979	887	761	1065	737	922	884	786	315	5	0	18	7	0	0	0	0	4	3
TSP	1A2a	8932	5680	5231	6692	5149	5810	5011	4822	2813	519	785	1477	940	733	701	571	647	640	709
TSP	2B10a		15483	8249	15368	18045	18400	16251	17233	15423	10689	13078	18547	13713	14889	15694	17626	18908	18524	17166
TSP	2D3g	5685	6432	3320	4390	5549	10271	11582	0	41	5	44	72	97	111	284	303	288	195
BC	1A4cii	251	232	238	237	223	234	239	208	120	132	132	142	144	138	131	137	126	124	133

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A1a	3854500	3337773	3078035	3521129	3726875	3712246	3716520	3580771	3535919	3140913	2721905	2402210	2392492	2777299	2736799	2718041	2719381	3420233	2166528	1744707	1640044	1855319	1088037	929486	870791	850654	824496	872839	867501
Pb	1A2a	8560674	6893073	12813709	13368567	19047920	20465589	18932502	20106464	16717239	14284884	15154148	13881211	7229208	9943162	7184356	14161892	13484013	12211711	5281974	566289	514540	558665	480324	424224	409627	348939	8102	363578	342011
Pb	1A2f	18330290	15601716	7720181	4854222	3992206	4458568	5191015	4629372	3897986	3026165	2634483	2614493	2802955	2328862	4075370	5016488	6760859	6851632	8646696	6607375	6920295	7916912	7478943	7964764	9398675	10094153	11274123	11534234	10559045
Pb	1A3bi	191843125	89350423	113091871	133502540	135024629	149457017	129495592	84613618	111608103	110276533	93339836	80725264	88117936	85404224	2824014	2749302	3407111	19418	65646	1143	1110	1078	1096	946	1096	1219	1209	1224	1225
Pb	1A3bii	58787687	28530755	37233220	44653239	44777380	49335532	42086002	27452003	36293673	35095322	29280771	25017659	26069020	24611352	791727	773733	543811	2762	8160	238	226	222	235	204	234	265	264	269	285
Pb	1A3biv	23026837	10401386	12682401	13989933	13433850	14190337	11684763	7515861	9293364	8682186	6836551	5626848	5781819	5152482	49110	46484	43289	251	882	15	15	14	14	12	15	16	17	20	21
Pb	1A4bi	4258859	3917473	5037833	5287757	3913412	3225630	4094257	3804326	3854519	2670200	2074817	1511203	2461679	2833280	2339432	2168822	2314793	2043946	1986034	1610639	2021066	2361392	2328382	2049988	1666894	1658773	1815201	1868475	1564900
Pb	2C1	67096150	25632737	8672804	10449136	13182680	14390410	12982505	13859560	11370829	10279007	10432873	10237784	8861975	10969991	9399992	8954777	9121537	8090450	5475292	1935769	1979659	2233196	1700075	1407190	1648473	1465766	1427510	1740022	1777132
Cd	1A1b									226554	223318	156180	173493	180017	188219	144039	105203	65469	101028	451	452	499	543	2150	209	1035	1096	216	229	188
Cd	1A1c	291777	291777	291777	428439	419903	474009	435333	467184	347329	313561	376794	452005	399749	440520	332976	297575	266201	210100	109161
Cd	1A2a	1770345	1354953	1104324	1043989	983305	971972	886825	886728	641401	439767	396917	353389	292976	398680	341923	389140	251920	220522	115541	134099	39717	61408	38777	19982	17432	17294	4072	17126	12751
Cd	1A2b	1690171	1256521	999456	1049030	1306241	1263013	1604501	1515730	1481991	1355712	1906903	1821383	1644308	1700670	1966228	1478731	1483814	1247581	1427688	819058	538372	573151	610099	713846	1575689	666741	860061	782418	860135
Cd	1A2f	324569	276255	136522	88399	78007	86807	95460	86595	76405	63489	57585	58146	61701	56325	86308	105741	143033	130367	160035	115003	115357	130986	123951	131004	152501	166408	185160	189985	174481
Cd	2G	133275	139564	115123	114140	125836	130973	133698	126945	108478	106564	105967	118958	114383	119574	116068	111739	84311	111261	89957	81364	58396	62813	71923	84483	79703	96354	116090	83506	64121
Hg	1A1a	546560	469463	423404	475460	494044	490871	492437	471535	469404	410858	364983	328973	321615	377044	373163	366352	367055	444126	296312	249089	235824	265918	167418	143597	149166	136053	142457	147006	139912
Hg	1A1b						5		15	72642	71508	50969	55809	57722	60289	46297	34322	22154	32994	165	145	162	175	631	18	281	503	274	227	355
Hg	1A2a	598293	460779	412952	396358	406424	410626	378435	393024	288951	212050	208011	167886	127195	174632	141059	181101	138731	122830	60471	43372	11802	26046	14370	6189	5470	5981	3265	6977	5163
Hg	1A2b	120150	97315	221826	241982	265290	296215	304014	424846	320035	319174	291697	273457	249355	940963	831909	214708	219360	220301	276247	238235	225754	198249	188327	214466	220713	201098	224227	203386	215886
Hg	1A2f	807820	687962	341866	252898	289529	320908	292547	283557	288496	284653	273681	285395	296635	319336	381562	461247	628640	443178	491610	270003	215134	231663	223390	221576	214365	267596	288054	302550	285605
Hg	1A4bi	156823	145717	186508	197083	145159	119188	149686	136863	134896	91745	67112	47017	79904	93286	75032	69319	74336	65166	62606	49137	62887	74953	73413	63216	49572	50075	55033	57110	46652
Hg	1B2aiv	42299	23445	12271	29044	35491	40759	35465	30416	28330	28820	27101	27290	26627	25689	26943	31538	36261	36190	36445	31860	27922	25923	30059	28672	26285	30789	31916	34600	29987
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2562255	2119009	1808387	1832892	1899735	1977325	1917060	2000500	1832858	1627836	1512080	1418617	1367559	2256232	2130447	1615384	1748053	1584979	1426851	1018187	909310	965964	830807	785851	771652	797619	846772	869500	832259
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2562255	2119009	1808387	1832892	1899735	1977325	1917060	2000500	1832858	1627836	1512080	1418617	1367559	2256232	2130447	1615384	1748053	1584979	1426851	1018187	909310	965964	830807	785851	771652	797619	846772	869500	832259
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	2562255	2119009	1808387	1832892	1899735	1977325	1917060	2000500	1832858	1627836	1512080	1418617	1367559	2256232	2130447	1615384	1748053	1584979	1426851	1018187	909310	965964	830807	785851	771652	797619	846772	869500	832259

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	1A2b	3810	2951	2650	3120	3873	3808	5024	4308	4952	4588	2824	2716	4116	4031	4864	4474	4322	3873	4093	4510	4120	4850	4887	5674	5808	5591	0	0	5911
HCB	1A1a	1545205	1373260	1269793	890952	1442760	1430459	1395225	1426935	1489595	1313407	1309771	1347081	1373701	1563409	1531004	1497426	1576439	1814815	1794924	2142589	2142589	2142589	1843340	1535236	1669973	1717710	1512721	1540636	1362821
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1846147	1658779	1549155	1167505	1765540	1771411	1725823	1734254	1865359	1646153	1802261	1747725	1776766	2024748	2097547	1988712	2291785	2217849	2174185	2379735	2353342	2377358	2067760	1782542	1878983	1926770	1735579	1769053	1577721
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1846147	1658779	1549155	1167505	1765540	1771411	1725823	1734254	1865359	1646153	1802261	1747725	1776766	2024748	2097547	1988712	2291785	2217849	2174185	2379735	2353342	2377358	2067760	1782542	1878983	1926770	1735579	1769053	1577721
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	1846147	1658779	1549155	1167505	1765540	1771411	1725823	1734254	1865359	1646153	1802261	1747725	1776766	2024748	2097547	1988712	2291785	2217849	2174185	2379735	2353342	2377358	2067760	1782542	1878983	1926770	1735579	1769053	1577721
PCB	1A4bi	4700168	4399818	5653988	5952011	4325888	3494960	4420530	4109333	3911100	2571601	1703757	1094736	2035501	2428082	1841334	1668874	1787647	1520047	1414471	977260	1363232	1698499	1646718	1346837	938987	951598	1073655	1131227	818105