Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: BG      Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
NOx1A1b     3 95505519342384267435145483526273719472573119121111961249969119014001681
NOx1A3bi31370150001898722282224052458321032166242043820869222342196323342230682278122933242642166021294209511947418354189821708718772200101944118152
NOx1A3di(ii)4679230122151820811209722175718909706549562950247537824210754902886358321408295901629577305989503971686458684661386342
NOx1A4bi3745366645285002379533333940320536892848277423273266359633203173339531393188298334173778377435293210319634173474
NOx1A4cii29859157221356215699131671186711960585274787873777272037370733769017270740464663721410041004410447942734066423838943813
NMVOC1A3bi305381454017761206221986921935185131289115795153561523514053148791442913047128161364811553110121081297488654809170617558743167305747
NMVOC1A3bii65953351412348234531495941092655326130322621217120962018181416911238959876798717660640512552571513459
NMVOC1B2av452121392541327070493600310721232735266729642032398020362319210531542286236824382367221121531895188619882033 
NMVOC2D3e34252634252634252629873591331701157125998710761376136199358561545444833710012215717423498127113187196
SOx1A2a2040291608031254441198601108291093081057511102296961943807868723622130135272622382723194162697003674141272886341571191311721008112513682022
SOx1A4bi25133240023070132700238201937624172218492089713821928660571108813190101059180983183937842554376039407913275375370545961046403
SOx1B2aiv5142285014923531431549554311369834443504329533183237312332753834440844004431387333943151365434863195374338804206
SOx2H16604473161286787695487378374730452724073448748694508664867866277642745714389144355546973546568687204199371987065
NH32B794280446523440671677975773262283210119309861028105210551098112975219851256132412471384132813661386
NH33B332294325532800522262181831554015814139621143812295981264536930773375227180745472146354575653034861438042664324438146364632
CO1A3bi4156771949952319132635812463612670112202431403901708431597691448261249011295591223641076811005671092429407589783878687898169816645955524159761594105470049130
CO1A3bii7408637673465985478951560568314735830367375673495431167258082567924466217911984813882106379329846674226551607347845135516344083924
CO1A4bi156194136348170720177715135847119323148931137689162328126905127967108660150344164036152736145638154770142845145404135897156024171131171693162044148273145767156079157907
CO2B7941680394650233540597164779575677325621583231010893009859102791051610553109821129175231985212564132431247413842132811366213861

PM (Unit = Mg)
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
PM2.51A2a97988776110657379228847863155018700004
TSP1A2a8932568052316692514958105011482228135197851477940733701571647640
TSP2D3g5685643233204390554910271115820415447297111284303288195
BC1A4cii251232238237223234239208120132132142144138131137126123

HM (Unit = g)
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Pb1A1a38545003337773307803535211293726875371224637165203580771353591931409132721905240221023924922777299273679927180412719381342023321665281744707164004418553191088037929486870791850654824496872839
Pb1A2a85606746893073128137091336856719047920204655891893250220106464167172391428488415154148138812117229208994316271843561416189213484013122117115281974566289514540558665480324424224409627348939810233570
Pb1A2f183302901560171677201814854222399220644585685191015462937238979863026165263448326144932802955232886240753705016488676085968516328646696660737569202957916912747894379647649398675100941531127412311534234
Pb1A3bi191843125893504231130918711335025401350246291494570171294955928461361811160810311027653393339836807252648811793685404224282401427493023407195194206565511431110107810979461096122012081225
Pb1A3bii587876872853075537233220446532394477738049335532420860022745200336293673350953222928077125017659260690202461135279172777373354382427628161238226222235204234265264270
Pb1A3biv230268371040138612682401139899331343385014190337116847637515861929336486821866836551562684857818195152482491104648443190250873151414131214161620
Pb1A4bi3788884347751644392024657568342996028350563574245332092233714882352637185449013696852198446251924821013411953045208365718474311803193148438218448772141828211552218759331545614153585416765001722323
Pb2C16709615025632737867280410449136131826801439041012982505138595601137082910279007104328731023778488619751096999193999928954777912153780904505475292193576919796592233196170007514071901648473146576614275101751033
Cd1A1b        22655422331815618017349318001718821914403910520365469101028451452499543215020910351096216229
Cd1A1c291777291777291777428439419903474009435333467184347329313561376794452005399749440520332976297575266201210100109161         
Cd1A2a1770345135495311043241043989983305971972886825886728641401439767396917353389292976398680341923389140251920220522115541134099397176140838777199821743217294407210959
Cd1A2b1690171125652199945610490301306241126301316045011515730148199113557121906903182138316443081700670196622814787311483814124758114276888190585383725731516100997138461575689666741860061782418
Cd1A2f324569276255136522883997800786807954608659576405634895758558146617015632586308105741143033130367160035115003115357130986123951131004152501166408185160189985
Hg1A1a546560469463423404475460494044490871492437471535469404410858364983328973321615377044373163366352367055444126296312249089235824265918167418143597149166136053142457147006
Hg1A1b     5 157264271508509695580957722602894629734322221543299416514516217563118281503274227
Hg1A2a598293460779412952396358406424410626378435393024288951212050208011167886127195174632141059181101138731122830604714337211802260461437061895470598132656498
Hg1A2b12015097315221826241982265290296215304014424846320035319174291697273457249355940963831909214708219360220301276247238235225754198249188327214466220713201098224227203386
Hg1A2f807820687962341866252898289529320908292547283557288496284653273681285395296635319336381562461247628640443178491610270003215134231663223390221576214365267596288054302550
Hg1A4bi14533213547217325218272313379310960013781812701512528585236626234398074492867766990264615693096084758600461605903470143687825932646715469295174153754
Hg1B2aiv42299234451227129044354914075935465304162833028820271012729026627256892694331538362613619036445318602792225923300592867226285307893191634600
HgADJUSTMENTS25506532108453179478218182231888100196760919049641990545182314116212211507543141551513621342249741212530516106351743027158067814228831015225905366961175826173781890768759794500843430865818
HgNATIONALTOTAL25506532108453179478218182231888100196760919049641990545182314116212211507543141551513621342249741212530516106351743027158067814228831015225905366961175826173781890768759794500843430865818
HgNTCOMPLIANCE25506532108453179478218182231888100196760919049641990545182314116212211507543141551513621342249741212530516106351743027158067814228831015225905366961175826173781890768759794500843430865818

POP (Unit = mg)
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
DIOX1A1a2180192917431863200019981984200220281789168016221815195819231857197723362178201921142649233719942145233300
DIOX1A1b        48474339587250554743301924269994109208442946700
DIOX1A2a11038909424617215083472436590343063802531456280442726926349224893170021859273972628623338941334620333523020119918600
DIOX1A2b3810295126503120387338085024430849524588282427164116403148644474432238734093451041204850488756745808559100
HCB1A2a23364192825225745433742767840274185805366688859816596925794247954687684916761275593095848737748104531027394989317981810508976200
HCB1A3di(ii)826035940342403346033920347203016072056007005120774084001096092008800848041601072019980106007820626091408120822073807859
HCBADJUSTMENTS300942284119277681275153321660340812329759307319375765332746492651400790403281461605566814491600715679403372379652237434210974235010224636247490209230209321212349218035
HCBNATIONALTOTAL300942284119277681275153321660340812329759307319375765332746492651400790403281461605566814491600715679403372379652237434210974235010224636247490209230209321212349218035
HCBNTCOMPLIANCE300942284119277681275153321660340812329759307319375765332746492651400790403281461605566814491600715679403372379652237434210974235010224636247490209230209321212349218035
PCB1A2a293132245716388014310303484217506280473272521231435426385436622747547896498556656380497257557107475137438937229315568228917979952789057757274892621840100508
PCB1A4bi4700168439981856539885952011432588834949604420530410933339111002571601170375710947362035501242808218413341668874178764715200471414471977260136323816985091646732134685393900795162210736841131262