Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BG Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A1b						3		9	5505	5193	4238	4267	4351	4548	3526	2737	1947	2573	11	9	12	11	1196	1249	969	1190	1400
NOx	1A3bi	31372	15478	18989	22284	22407	24585	21035	16625	20439	20870	22235	21964	23343	23068	22782	22934	24264	21660	21294	20951	19474	18354	18981	17092	18786	20019	19448
NOx	1A3di(ii)	4679	23567	21518	20811	20972	21757	18909	706	5495	629	5024	7537	8242	10754	9028	8635	8321	4082	9590	16295	7730	5989	5039	7168	6458	6846	6138
NMVOC	1A3bi	30539	14993	17763	20624	19871	21937	18515	12893	15796	15357	15236	14053	14879	14429	13047	12817	13648	11553	11012	10812	9748	8653	8090	7064	7568	7437	6735
NMVOC	1A3bii	6595	3463	4124	4823	4531	4959	4109	2655	3261	3032	2621	2171	2096	2018	1814	1691	1238	959	876	798	717	660	640	512	552	571	512
NMVOC	1B2av	4521	2139	2541	3270	7049	3600	3107	2123	2735	2667	2964	2032	3980	2036	2319	2105	3154	2286	2368	2438	2367	2211	2153	1895	1886	1988	2033
NMVOC	2D3e	342526	342526	342526	298735	9133	1701	1571	259	987	1076	1376	1361	993	585	615	454	448	337	100	122	157	174	234	98	127	113	187
SOx	1A2a	204029	160803	125444	119860	110829	109308	105751	110229	69619	43807	86872	36221	30135	27262	23827	23194	16269	7003	6741	4127	2886	34157	11913	1172	1008	1125	1368
SOx	1A4bi	25133	24031	30065	32049	23637	19097	24019	18649	18514	12516	9286	6057	11088	13190	10105	9180	9831	8393	7842	5543	7603	9407	9132	7537	5370	5459	6104
SOx	1B2aiv			7	392	1800	3041	3041	2342	2105	4	2356	3103	2885	3227	2926	2972	4388	2	2	4492	4752	4669	5119	4999	4768	2777	3600
SOx	2H1	6604	4731	6128	6787	6954	8737	8374	7304	5272	4073	4487	4869	4508	6648	6786	6277	6427	4571	4389	1443	5554	6973	5465	6868	7204	1993	7198
NH3	2B7	942	804	465	234	406	716	779	757	732	622	832	1011	930	986	1028	1052	1055	1098	1129	752	1985	1256	1324	1247	1384	1328	1366
NH3	3B3	32294	32553	28005	22262	18183	15540	15814	13962	11438	12295	9812	6453	6930	7733	7522	7180	7454	7214	6354	5756	5303	4861	4380	4266	4324	4381	4636
CO	1A3bii	74089	38914	46603	54794	51565	56836	47363	30371	37570	34956	31169	25809	25680	24467	21793	19850	13882	10636	9329	8466	7422	6551	6073	4784	5135	5162	4407
CO	2B7	9416	8039	4650	2335	4059	7164	7795	7567	7325	6215	8323	10108	9300	9859	10279	10516	10553	10982	11291	7523	19852	12564	13243	12474	13842	13281	13662

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	1A2a	979	887	761	1065	737	922	884	786	315	5	0	18	7	0	0	0	0
TSP	1A2a	8932	5680	5231	6692	5149	5810	5011	4822	2813	519	785	1477	940	733	701	571	647

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A1a	3854500	3337773	3078035	3521129	3726875	3712246	3716520	3580771	3535919	3140913	2721905	2402210	2392492	2777299	2736799	2718041	2719381	3420233	2166528	1744707	1640044	1855319	1088037	929486	870791	850654	824496
Pb	1A2a	8560674	6893073	12813709	13368567	19047920	20465589	18932502	20106464	16717239	14284884	15154148	13881211	7229208	9943162	7184356	14161892	13484013	12211711	5281974	566289	514540	558665	480324	424224	409627	348939	8102
Pb	1A2f	18330290	15601716	7720181	4854222	3992206	4458568	5191015	4629372	3897986	3026165	2634483	2614493	2802955	2328862	4075370	5016488	6760859	6851632	8646696	6607375	6920295	7916912	7478943	7964764	9398675	10094153	11274123
Pb	1A3bi	191851733	92111335	113103139	133514496	135036817	149470832	129510194	84626178	111616765	110283062	93344627	80729771	88123181	85406321	2824349	2749758	3407259	19534	65777	1271	1238	1205	1233	1072	1241	1380	1373
Pb	1A3bii	58790330	29412357	37236932	44657239	44781420	49340090	42090747	27456078	36296489	35097399	29282269	25019050	26070565	24611950	791815	773855	543836	2781	8182	259	246	243	258	224	257	292	291
Pb	1A3biv	23027866	10722784	12683661	13991183	13435059	14191645	11686078	7516973	9294082	8682696	6836898	5627158	5782159	5152604	49114	46490	43190	250	873	15	15	14	14	12	14	16	16
Pb	1A4bi	3788884	3485921	4347213	4563422	3403427	2794657	3552047	2858720	3027225	2164106	1854490	1369685	2198446	2519248	2101341	1953045	2083657	1847431	1803193	1484382	1844877	2141828	2115522	1875933	1545614	1535854	1676500
Pb	2C1	67096150	25632737	8672804	10449136	13182680	14390410	12982505	13859560	11370829	10279007	10432873	10237784	8861975	10969991	9399992	8954777	9121537	8090450	5475292	1935769	1979659	2233196	1700075	1407747	1648473	1465766	1426637
Cd	1A1b									226554	223318	156180	173493	180017	188219	144039	105203	65469	101028	451	452	499	543	2150	209	1035	1096	216
Cd	1A1c	291777	291777	291777	428439	419903	474009	435333	467184	347329	313561	376794	452005	399749	440520	332976	297575	266201	210100	109161
Cd	1A2a	1770345	1354953	1104324	1043989	983305	971972	886825	886728	641401	439767	396917	353389	292976	398680	341923	389140	251920	220522	115541	134099	39717	61408	38777	19982	17432	17294	4072
Cd	1A2b	1690171	1256521	999456	1049030	1306241	1263013	1604501	1515730	1481991	1355712	1906903	1821383	1644308	1700670	1966228	1478731	1483814	1247581	1427688	819058	538372	573151	610099	713846	1575689	666741	860061
Cd	1A2f	324569	276255	136522	88399	78007	86807	95460	86595	76405	63489	57585	58146	61701	56325	86308	105741	143033	130367	160035	115003	115357	130986	123951	131004	152501	166408	185160
Hg	1A1a	546560	469463	423404	475460	494044	490871	492437	471535	469404	410858	364983	328973	321615	377044	373163	366352	367055	444126	296312	249089	235824	265918	167418	143597	149166	136053	142457
Hg	1A1b						5		15	72642	71508	50969	55809	57722	60289	46297	34322	22154	32994	165	145	162	175	631	18	281	503	274
Hg	1A2a	598293	460779	412952	396358	406424	410626	378435	393024	288951	212050	208011	167886	127195	174632	141059	181101	138731	122830	60471	43372	11802	26046	14370	6189	5470	5981	3265
Hg	1A2b	120150	97315	221826	241982	265290	296215	304014	424846	320035	319174	291697	273457	249355	940963	831909	214708	219360	220301	276247	238235	225754	198249	188327	214466	220713	201098	224227
Hg	1A2f	807820	687962	341866	252898	289529	320908	292547	283557	288496	284653	273681	285395	296635	319336	381562	461247	628640	443178	491610	270003	215134	231663	223390	221576	214365	267596	288054
Hg	1A4bi	145332	135751	169643	179030	132752	108015	136947	108883	111779	77840	62623	43980	74492	86776	69902	64615	69309	60847	58600	46160	59034	70143	68782	59326	46715	46929	51741
Hg	ADJUSTMENTS	2508354	2085987	1779143	1785686	1851729	1925285	1868749	1941997	1781306	1585005	1480442	1388225	1335507	2224052	2098362	1579097	1706766	1544488	1386439	983365	877443	935251	796113	753228	742473	763711	811497
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2508354	2085987	1779143	1785686	1851729	1925285	1868749	1941997	1781306	1585005	1480442	1388225	1335507	2224052	2098362	1579097	1706766	1544488	1386439	983365	877443	935251	796113	753228	742473	763711	811497
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	2508354	2085987	1779143	1785686	1851729	1925285	1868749	1941997	1781306	1585005	1480442	1388225	1335507	2224052	2098362	1579097	1706766	1544488	1386439	983365	877443	935251	796113	753228	742473	763711	811497

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A1a	2180	1929	1743	1863	2000	1998	1984	2002	2028	1789	1680	1622	1815	1958	1923	1857	1977	2336	2178	2019	2114	2649	2337	1994	2145	2333	0
DIOX	1A1b									48	47	43	39	58	72	50	55	47	43	30	19	24	26	9994	10920	8442	9467	0
DIOX	1A2a	11038	9094	24617	21508	34724	36590	34306	38025	31456	28044	27269	26349	22489	31700	21859	27397	26286	23338	9413	346	203	335	230	201	199	186	0
DIOX	1A2b	3810	2951	2650	3120	3873	3808	5024	4308	4952	4588	2824	2716	4116	4031	4864	4474	4322	3873	4093	4510	4120	4850	4887	5674	5808	5591	0
HCB	1A2a	23364	19282	52257	45433	74276	78402	74185	80536	66888	59816	59692	57942	47954	68768	49167	61275	59309	58487	37748	10453	10273	9498	9317	9818	10508	9762	0
HCB	1A3di(ii)	8260	36920	34240	33460	33920	34720	30160	720	5600	700	5120	7740	8400	10960	9200	8800	8480	4160	10720	19980	10600	7820	6260	9140	8120	8220	7380
HCB	ADJUSTMENTS	300942	286549	278922	276104	322653	340760	330493	305115	374123	331847	492651	400791	403281	461605	566814	491600	715679	403372	379652	237434	210974	235010	224636	247490	209232	209322	212350
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	300942	286549	278922	276104	322653	340760	330493	305115	374123	331847	492651	400791	403281	461605	566814	491600	715679	403372	379652	237434	210974	235010	224636	247490	209232	209322	212350
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	300942	286549	278922	276104	322653	340760	330493	305115	374123	331847	492651	400791	403281	461605	566814	491600	715679	403372	379652	237434	210974	235010	224636	247490	209232	209322	212350
PCB	1A2a	293132	245716	388014	310303	484217	506280	473272	521231	435426	385436	622747	547896	498556	656380	497257	557107	475137	438937	229315	56822	89179	79952	78905	77572	74892	62184	0
PCB	1A4bi	4700168	4410810	5533694	5828897	4291191	3442131	4391503	3504916	3460910	2325060	1703757	1094736	2035501	2428082	1841334	1668874	1787647	1520047	1414471	977260	1363238	1698509	1646732	1346853	939007	951622	1073684