Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BG Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A1b						3		9	5505	5193	4238	4267	4351	4548	3526	2737	1947	2573	11	9	12	11	1196	1249	969	1190
NOx	1A3bi	31776	15743	19309	22648	22758	24936	21403	17043	20946	21395	22598	22358	23721	23543	22194	21787	22965	21678	21287	20650	19158	18061	18692	16906	18538	19755
NOx	1A3bii	12962	7015	7770	8807	8294	8784	7616	5894	7205	6966	5933	5366	5471	5766	6312	6044	5431	4734	4881	4555	4365	4401	4701	3997	4376	4788
NOx	1A3di(ii)	4679	23567	21518	20811	20972	21757	18909	706	5495	629	5024	7537	8242	10754	9028	8635	8321	4082	9590	16295	7730	5989	5039	7168	6458	6846
NOx	ADJUSTMENTS	270187	210065	181847	182689	177940	187870	183422	159366	158306	137011	148943	153843	175078	179822	177221	184989	180934	165588	166414	150656	140457	156838	142127	127311	133335	131621
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	270187	210065	181847	182689	177940	187870	183422	159366	158306	137011	148943	153843	175078	179822	177221	184989	180934	165588	166414	150656	140457	156838	142127	127311	133335	131621
NOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	270187	210065	181847	182689	177940	187870	183422	159366	158306	137011	148943	153843	175078	179822	177221	184989	180934	165588	166414	150656	140457	156838	142127	127311	133335	131621
NMVOC	1A3bi	29936	14697	17403	20172	19425	21389	18039	12599	15402	14976	14549	13505	14286	13902	12048	12165	12743	11536	10968	10954	9862	8782	8241	7238	7774	7720
NMVOC	1A3bii	6251	3293	3924	4593	4321	4729	3928	2549	3131	2915	2471	2052	1980	1913	1722	1707	1236	977	892	811	729	670	641	508	535	545
NMVOC	1B2av	4521	2139	2541	3270	7049	3600	3107	2123	2735	2667	2964	2032	3980	2036	2319	2105	3154	2286	2368	2438	2367	2211	2153	1895	1886	1988
NMVOC	2D3e	342526	342526	342526	298735	9133	1701	1571	259	987	1076	1376	1361	993	585	615	454	448	337	100	122	157	174	234	98	127	113
NMVOC	3Da1	37892	38501	28472	28044	25581	24465	21792	22311	24456	23680	11803	21937	18435	17902	19205	18248	19534	20876	19850	27693	24877	23903	14298	13931	16306	16144
SOx	1A2a	204029	160803	125444	119860	110829	109308	105751	110229	69619	43807	86872	36221	30135	27262	23827	23194	16269	7003	6741	4127	2886	34157	11913	1172	1008	1125
SOx	1A4bi	25371	24703	30826	33232	24548	19960	24776	18731	18681	12698	9517	6286	11359	13485	10419	9482	10153	8696	8151	5867	7938	9769	9492	7820	5723	5829
SOx	2H1	6604	4731	6128	6787	6954	8737	8374	7304	5272	4073	4487	4869	4508	6648	6786	6277	6427	4571	4389	1443	5554	6973	5465	6868	7204	1993
NH3	2B7	942	804	465	234	406	716	779	757	732	622	832	1011	930	986	1028	1052	1055	1098	1129	752	1985	1256	1324	1247	1384	1328
NH3	3B3	32294	32553	28005	22262	18183	15540	15814	13962	11438	12295	9812	6453	6930	7733	7522	7180	7454	7214	6354	5756	5303	4860	4381	4267	4325	4384
NH3	3B4e	951	923	914	910	985	1137	1284	1364	1038	1098	1125	1161	1247	1287	1332	1122	1369	1389	586	1391	1372	1152	1166	1372	1372	1372
NH3	3B4f	2803	2784	2774	2591	2447	2354	2409	2434	1915	1841	1737	1623	1570	1570	1543	1138	1473	1451	9	1388	1259	1102	1109	1259	1259	1259
NH3	3B4gi	5720	5196	4111	3925	5916	4003	3543	3314	3198	3156	2948	3250	3754	3278	3425	2960	3100	3315	3225	2550	2886	2452	2345	2439	2522	2583
NH3	3B4giv	18266	11896	2824	2824	2824	5271	3164	2703	2696	2668	2423	2462	3332	4074	2165	1881	1966	2297	2235	1286	1721	1386	1309	39	39	1235
NH3	3Da1	6327	10133	5312	6855	4837	3571	3545	3441	3611	3218	54	3212	3489	3631	4117	4469	4519	5201	6102	9579	7569	7486	7392	1182	1133	1199
CO	1A3bii	70035	36883	44217	52018	49043	54043	45123	29053	35948	33489	28703	23831	23700	22659	20224	19286	13336	10433	9144	8371	7381	6527	5916	4544	4662	4464
CO	2B7	9416	8039	4650	2335	4059	7164	7795	7567	7325	6215	8323	10108	9300	9859	10279	10516	10553	10982	11291	7523	19852	12564	13243	12474	13842	13281
CO	ADJUSTMENTS	780849	468691	572611	636509	609242	636728	598112	508142	561632	491582	455940	405766	424979	447732	399580	408152	421201	362961	337080	302185	325088	327071	321201	298035	291488	288089
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	780849	468691	572611	636509	609242	636728	598112	508142	561632	491582	455940	405766	424979	447732	399580	408152	421201	362961	337080	302185	325088	327071	321201	298035	291488	288089
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	780849	468691	572611	636509	609242	636728	598112	508142	561632	491582	455940	405766	424979	447732	399580	408152	421201	362961	337080	302185	325088	327071	321201	298035	291488	288089

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	1A2a	979	887	761	1065	737	922	884	786	315	5	0	18	7	0	0	0
TSP	1A2a	8932	5680	5231	6692	5149	5810	5011	4822	2813	519	785	1477	940	733	701	571

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A2a	8560674	6893073	12813709	13368567	19047920	20465589	18932502	20106464	16717239	14284884	15154148	13881211	7229208	9943162	7184356	14161892	13484013	12211711	5281974	566289	514540	558665	480324	424224	409627	348939
Pb	1A2f	18330290	15601716	7720181	4854222	3992206	4458568	5191015	4629372	3897986	3026165	2634483	2614493	2802955	2328862	4075370	5016488	6760859	6851632	8646696	6607375	6920295	7916912	7478943	7964764	9398675	10094153
Pb	1A3ai(ii)	21100000	21100000	20000000	18900000	17800000	16600000	15500000	14400000	12000000	29400000	12000000	25800000	15000000	13200000	10800000	7200000	14400000	24000000	7200000	13200000	13200000	12000000	95400000	93000000	99000000	103200000
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	91300000	91300000	164000000	219000000	178000000	176900000	116000000	85800000	75600000	40800000	46800000	60600000	72600000	93000000	89400000	109800000	105000000	106200000	123600000	88800000	88800000	99000000	6000000	6600000	4800000	7200000
Pb	1A3bi	144032000	69249000	85680000	101857000	103842000	115602000	101485000	67181300	89468200	89311000	76757000	67286600	74314900	73093100	1311660	1428040	1949160	48480	53670	56250	57080	59050	64990	60280	69440	635923
Pb	1A3bii	42695000	21413400	27442600	33277800	33771400	37572300	32635800	21676300	29082300	28370600	24051500	20816100	21820600	20770900	387710	415700	317360	14370	15900	15500	15220	15770	17460	15380	17710	224038
Pb	1A3biv	17245500	8038850	9511910	10486300	10070200	10621800	8746330	5632650	6955240	6494720	5088360	4183220	4289010	3823150												927
Pb	1A4bi	3921024	3680918	4562987	4868663	3654917	3052194	3798931	2949797	3219735	2362164	2131007	1637794	2520741	2855115	2454101	2296919	2448611	2195514	2167705	1858952	2248761	2568228	2546988	2291331	1962940	1949851
Cd	1A1b									226554	223318	156180	173493	180017	188219	144039	105203	65469	101028	451	452	499	543	2150	209	1035	1096
Cd	1A1c	291777	291777	291777	428439	419903	474009	435333	467184	347329	313561	376794	452005	399749	440520	332976	297575	266201	210100	109161
Cd	1A2a	1770345	1354953	1104324	1043989	983305	971972	886825	886728	641401	439767	396917	353389	292976	398680	341923	389140	251920	220522	115541	134099	39717	61408	38777	19982	17432	17294
Cd	1A2b	1690171	1256521	999456	1049030	1306241	1263013	1604501	1515730	1481991	1355712	1906903	1821383	1644308	1700670	1966228	1478731	1483814	1247581	1427688	819058	538372	573151	610099	713846	1575689	666741
Cd	1A2f	324569	276255	136522	88399	78007	86807	95460	86595	76405	63489	57585	58146	61701	56325	86308	105741	143033	130367	160035	115003	115357	130986	123951	131004	152501	166408
Cd	ADJUSTMENTS	5229077	4065618	3335740	3561653	3622847	3655249	3818381	3644977	3441809	2954835	3472599	3406425	3085415	3381057	3448439	2943296	2822270	2514208	2427072	1592463	1118191	1226162	1133395	1163155	2066391	1146536
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	5229077	4065618	3335740	3561653	3622847	3655249	3818381	3644977	3441809	2954835	3472599	3406425	3085415	3381057	3448439	2943296	2822270	2514208	2427072	1592463	1118191	1226162	1133395	1163155	2066391	1146536
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	5229077	4065618	3335740	3561653	3622847	3655249	3818381	3644977	3441809	2954835	3472599	3406425	3085415	3381057	3448439	2943296	2822270	2514208	2427072	1592463	1118191	1226162	1133395	1163155	2066391	1146536
Hg	1A1b						5		15	72642	71508	50969	55809	57722	60289	46297	34322	22154	32994	165	145	162	175	631	18	281	503
Hg	1A2a	598293	460779	412952	396358	406424	410626	378435	393024	288951	212050	208011	167886	127195	174632	141059	181101	138731	122830	60471	43372	11802	26046	14370	6189	5470	5981
Hg	1A2b	120150	97315	221826	241982	265290	296215	304014	424846	320035	319174	291697	273457	249355	940963	831909	214708	219360	220301	276247	238235	225754	198249	188327	214466	220713	201098
Hg	1A2f	807820	687962	341866	252898	289529	320908	292547	283557	288496	284653	273681	285395	296635	319336	381562	461247	628640	443178	491610	270003	215134	231663	223390	221576	214365	267596
Hg	1A4bi	144677	134684	168456	177318	131362	106613	135625	108456	110880	76911	61331	42715	72966	85149	68145	62747	67150	58616	56181	43472	56240	67064	65782	56114	43967	44036
Hg	2C1	140240	91460	164971	226863	221444	251328	217377	269964	230749	194922	190404	183172	132424	169925	165056	189087	217824	171847	170651	134372	112810	128178	97326	80880	94226	83833
Hg	ADJUSTMENTS	2445520	2016478	1786851	1831102	1866331	1952827	1882836	2003622	1830385	1611737	1498185	1398062	1313238	2206664	2091403	1602237	1757703	1584955	1432974	1036570	910218	976272	831176	779456	775290	787088
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2445520	2016478	1786851	1831102	1866331	1952827	1882836	2003622	1830385	1611737	1498185	1398062	1313238	2206664	2091403	1602237	1757703	1584955	1432974	1036570	910218	976272	831176	779456	775290	787088
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	2445520	2016478	1786851	1831102	1866331	1952827	1882836	2003622	1830385	1611737	1498185	1398062	1313238	2206664	2091403	1602237	1757703	1584955	1432974	1036570	910218	976272	831176	779456	775290	787088

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PCB	1A4bi	5132994	4661958	5790657	6064641	4562300	3803330	4822532	3901839	4307382	3183701	2930429	2278971	3462912	3901287	3382991	3174028	3381272	3043422	3019005	2616320	3147592	3573073	3550789	3214852	2780218	2748743
PCB	ADJUSTMENTS	6236729	5719210	6853003	6942683	5882361	5330745	6351934	5374698	5568670	4301754	3835083	3091325	4225143	4861213	4187285	4028223	4220977	4488655	4306627	3376983	4189137	4699472	5009966	4657843	3390181	3407280
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	6236729	5719210	6853003	6942683	5882361	5330745	6351934	5374698	5568670	4301754	3835083	3091325	4225143	4861213	4187285	4028223	4220977	4488655	4306627	3376983	4189137	4699472	5009966	4657843	3390181	3407280
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	6236729	5719210	6853003	6942683	5882361	5330745	6351934	5374698	5568670	4301754	3835083	3091325	4225143	4861213	4187285	4028223	4220977	4488655	4306627	3376983	4189137	4699472	5009966	4657843	3390181	3407280