Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: BG      Submission year: 2015

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2013
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2013
PMs: 2000 - 2013

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
NOx	1A1b						3		9	5505	5193	4238	4267	4351	4548	3526	2737	1947	2573	11	9	12	11	1196	1249
NOx	1A3aii(ii)	2600	2600	4600	6200	5000	5000	3300	2431	2142	1156	1326	1717	2057	2635	2533	3111	2975	3009	3502	2516	2516	2805	121	132
NOx	1A3bi	31784	15756	19248	22493	22516	24585	21401	17265	21448	22128	23448	23280	24807	24761	22983	22134	23212	21549	21504	20689	18837	18785	19931	18282
NOx	ADJUSTMENTS	264099	186419	160080	161434	156348	165364	163983	158639	152999	136654	144536	146970	167595	169850	169878	179056	176102	166004	160843	139366	138543	153929	139586	122573
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	264099	186419	160080	161434	156348	165364	163983	158639	152999	136654	144536	146970	167595	169850	169878	179056	176102	166004	160843	139366	138543	153929	139586	122573
NOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	264099	186419	160080	161434	156348	165364	163983	158639	152999	136654	144536	146970	167595	169850	169878	179056	176102	166004	160843	139366	138543	153929	139586	122573
NMVOC	1A3bi	29939	14701	17344	20035	19225	21107	18050	12772	15792	15523	15131	14090	14969	14645	12710	12762	13408	12139	11618	11653	10485	9477	9003	7975
NMVOC	1A3bii	6257	3298	3922	4583	4305	4706	3933	2570	3171	2964	2516	2093	2021	1958	1729	1668	1180	901	851	760	665	677	674	538
NMVOC	1B2av	4521	2139	2541	3270	7049	3600	3107	2123	2735	2667	2964	2032	3980	2036	2319	2105	3154	2286	2368	2438	2367	2211	2153	1895
NMVOC	3Da1	37892	38501	28472	28044	25581	24465	21792	22311	24456	23680	11803	21937	18435	17902	19205	18248	19534	20876	19850	27693	24877	23903	14298	13931
SOx	1A1a	829413	734219	693808	1015284	1152975	1122194	1093078	1050902	958527	725093	711914	725358	655142	713204	695698	690235	687457	757952	519950	398193	341408	431853	267697	137961
SOx	1A2a	204029	160803	125444	119860	110829	109308	105751	110229	69619	43807	86872	36221	30135	27262	23827	23194	16269	7003	6741	4127	2886	34157	11913	1172
SOx	1A4bi	25371	24703	30826	33232	24548	19960	24776	18731	18681	12698	9517	6286	11359	13485	10419	9482	10153	8696	8151	5867	7938	9769	9492	7820
SOx	2B10a	8348	6475	6475	6547	6865	7261	8395	8899	7982	7304	10263	9925	12016	14265	15624	16324	16152	15153	17249	18278	16987	19495	17870	24286
SOx	2H1	6604	4731	6128	6787	6954	8737	8374	7304	5272	4073	4487	4869	4508	6648	6786	6277	6427	4571	4389	1443	5554	6973	5465	6868
SOx	ADJUSTMENTS	1098980	951135	879993	1203491	1324679	1295168	1265581	1219844	1106674	835246	861294	826700	756416	824043	788958	776366	762933	819488	569157	439538	386778	514595	328646	193966
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	1098980	951135	879993	1203491	1324679	1295168	1265581	1219844	1106674	835246	861294	826700	756416	824043	788958	776366	762933	819488	569157	439538	386778	514595	328646	193966
SOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	1098980	951135	879993	1203491	1324679	1295168	1265581	1219844	1106674	835246	861294	826700	756416	824043	788958	776366	762933	819488	569157	439538	386778	514595	328646	193966
NH3	2B7	942	804	465	234	406	716	779	757	732	622	832	1011	930	986	1028	1052	1055	1098	1129	752	1985	1256	1324	1247
NH3	3B3	32294	32553	28005	22262	18183	15540	15814	13962	11438	12295	9812	6453	6930	7733	7522	7180	7454	7214	6354	5756	5303	4860	4381	4267
NH3	3B4e	951	923	914	910	985	1137	1284	1364	1038	1098	1125	1161	1247	1287	1332	1122	1369	1389	586	1391	1372	1152	1166	1372
NH3	3B4f	2803	2784	2774	2591	2447	2354	2409	2434	1915	1841	1737	1623	1570	1570	1543	1138	1473	1451	9	1388	1259	1102	1109	1259
NH3	3B4gi	5720	5196	4111	3925	5916	4003	3543	3314	3198	3156	2948	3250	3754	3278	3425	2960	3100	3315	3225	2550	2886	2452	2345	2439
NH3	3B4giv	18266	11896	2824	2824	2824	5271	3164	2703	2696	2668	2423	2462	3332	4074	2165	1881	1966	2297	2235	1286	1721	1386	1309	39
NH3	3Da1	6327	10133	5312	6855	4837	3571	3545	3441	3611	3218	54	3212	3489	3631	4117	4469	4519	5201	6102	9579	7569	7486	7392	1182
CO	1A3bii	70088	36933	44184	51896	48848	53764	45171	29267	36370	34028	29189	24265	24150	23129	20415	19115	12983	9920	8821	7980	6897	6421	5929	4559
CO	2B7	9416	8039	4650	2335	4059	7164	7795	7567	7325	6215	8323	10108	9300	9859	10279	10516	10553	10982	11291	7523	19852	12564	13243	12474
CO	ADJUSTMENTS	780199	466405	569487	632178	604030	630236	595954	509744	565362	497448	461118	410311	430219	453009	405340	414149	428286	370306	343381	308442	331842	332320	326179	302208
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	780199	466405	569487	632178	604030	630236	595954	509744	565362	497448	461118	410311	430219	453009	405340	414149	428286	370306	343381	308442	331842	332320	326179	302208
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	780199	466405	569487	632178	604030	630236	595954	509744	565362	497448	461118	410311	430219	453009	405340	414149	428286	370306	343381	308442	331842	332320	326179	302208

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
PM2.5	1A2a	979	887	761	1065	737	922	884	786	315	5	0	18	7	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Pb	1A2a	8560674	6893073	12813709	13368567	19047920	20465589	18932502	20106464	16717239	14284884	15154148	13881211	7229208	9943162	7184356	14161892	13484013	12211711	5281974	566289	514540	558665	480324	424224
Pb	1A2f	18330290	15601716	7720181	4854222	3992206	4458568	5191015	4629372	3897986	3026165	2634483	2614493	2802955	2328862	4075370	5016488	6760859	6851632	8646696	6607375	6920295	7916912	7478943	7964764
Pb	1A3ai(ii)	21100000	21100000	20000000	18900000	17800000	16600000	15500000	14400000	12000000	29400000	12000000	25800000	15000000	13200000	10800000	7200000	14400000	24000000	7200000	13200000	13200000	12000000	95400000	93000000
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	91300000	91300000	164000000	219000000	178000000	176900000	116000000	85800000	75600000	40800000	46800000	60600000	72600000	93000000	89400000	109800000	105000000	106200000	123600000	88800000	88800000	99000000	6000000	6600000
Pb	1A3bi	144038014	69255068	85892362	102340405	104546830	116588405	101591608	66831686	88513222	87940373	75518206	66161397	73039026	71787904	1179286	1303293	1803970	41533	86223	91153	90807	96088	102425	92443
Pb	1A3bii	42693494	21413611	27399934	33176286	33620546	37361497	32643779	21794815	29376576	28781111	24422854	21155834	22197064	21155466	394510	421213	320758	11224	18870	17855	16520	18789	21180	18706
Pb	1A4bi	3921024	3680918	4562987	4868663	3654917	3052194	3798931	2949797	3219735	2362164	2131007	1637794	2520741	2855115	2454101	2296919	2448611	2195514	2167705	1858952	2248761	2568228	2546988	2291331
Cd	1A1b									226554	223318	156180	173493	180017	188219	144039	105203	65469	101028	451	452	499	543	2150	209
Cd	1A1c	291777	291777	291777	428439	419903	474009	435333	467184	347329	313561	376794	452005	399749	440520	332976	297575	266201	210100	109161
Cd	1A2a	1770345	1354953	1104324	1043989	983305	971972	886825	886728	641401	439767	396917	353389	292976	398680	341923	389140	251920	220522	115541	134099	39717	61408	38777	19982
Cd	1A2b	1690171	1256521	999456	1049030	1306241	1263013	1604501	1515730	1481991	1355712	1906903	1821383	1644308	1700670	1966228	1478731	1483814	1247581	1427688	819058	538372	573151	610099	713846
Cd	1A2f	324569	276255	136522	88399	78007	86807	95460	86595	76405	63489	57585	58146	61701	56325	86308	105741	143033	130367	160035	115003	115357	130986	123951	131004
Cd	ADJUSTMENTS	5227715	4060447	3330923	3556916	3618033	3650341	3814101	3644868	3441073	2954654	3471927	3405435	3084327	3378966	3446076	2940449	2819344	2511441	2424046	1588415	1115300	1223559	1130257	1160144
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	5227715	4060447	3330923	3556916	3618033	3650341	3814101	3644868	3441073	2954654	3471927	3405435	3084327	3378966	3446076	2940449	2819344	2511441	2424046	1588415	1115300	1223559	1130257	1160144
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	5227715	4060447	3330923	3556916	3618033	3650341	3814101	3644868	3441073	2954654	3471927	3405435	3084327	3378966	3446076	2940449	2819344	2511441	2424046	1588415	1115300	1223559	1130257	1160144
Hg	1A1b						5		15	72642	71508	50969	55809	57722	60289	46297	34322	22154	32994	165	145	162	175	631	18
Hg	1A2a	598293	460779	412952	396358	406424	410626	378435	393024	288951	212050	208011	167886	127195	174632	141059	181101	138731	122830	60471	43372	11802	26046	14370	6189
Hg	1A2b	120150	97315	221826	241982	265290	296215	304014	424846	320035	319174	291697	273457	249355	940963	831909	214708	219360	220301	276247	238235	225754	198249	188327	214466
Hg	1A2f	807820	687962	341866	252898	289529	320908	292547	283557	288496	284653	273681	285395	296635	319336	381562	461247	628640	443178	491610	270003	215134	231663	223390	221576
Hg	1A4bi	144677	134684	168456	177318	131362	106613	135625	108456	110880	76911	61331	42715	72966	85149	68145	62747	67150	58616	56181	43472	56240	67064	65782	56114
Hg	2C1	140240	91460	164971	226863	221444	251328	217377	269964	230749	194922	190404	183172	132424	169925	165056	189087	217824	171847	170651	134372	112810	128178	97326	80880
Hg	ADJUSTMENTS	2443800	2009688	1780711	1825202	1860391	1946587	1877326	2003292	1828205	1611387	1496205	1395138	1310007	2186862	2060330	1558763	1711272	1531256	1391755	998223	873457	938381	776593	735929
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2443800	2009688	1780711	1825202	1860391	1946587	1877326	2003292	1828205	1611387	1496205	1395138	1310007	2186862	2060330	1558763	1711272	1531256	1391755	998223	873457	938381	776593	735929
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	2443800	2009688	1780711	1825202	1860391	1946587	1877326	2003292	1828205	1611387	1496205	1395138	1310007	2186862	2060330	1558763	1711272	1531256	1391755	998223	873457	938381	776593	735929

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
PCB	1A4bi	5132994	4661958	5790657	6064641	4562300	3803330	4822532	3901839	4307382	3183701	2930429	2278971	3462912	3901287	3382991	3174028	3381272	3043422	3019005	2616320	3147592	3573073	3550789	3214852
PCB	ADJUSTMENTS	6202415	5591872	6731935	6821919	5758823	5206827	6244736	5374280	5565364	4299132	3832575	3087076	4221051	4855880	4182797	4023906	4216803	4486517	4293293	3338656	4160836	4681042	4997323	4637806
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	6202415	5591872	6731935	6821919	5758823	5206827	6244736	5374280	5565364	4299132	3832575	3087076	4221051	4855880	4182797	4023906	4216803	4486517	4293293	3338656	4160836	4681042	4997323	4637806
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	6202415	5591872	6731935	6821919	5758823	5206827	6244736	5374280	5565364	4299132	3832575	3087076	4221051	4855880	4182797	4023906	4216803	4486517	4293293	3338656	4160836	4681042	4997323	4637806