Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA

Inv. comparison

Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: BE      Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	340334	335114	328681	321587	303657	294006	286066	273257	264687	249087	226527	220403	205121	194578	183549	150165	173170	163117	155192	143122	142242	130705	127611	123871	117287	116293	115387	113899	112823	111617	112494
SOx	1A2c	18171	23814	22471	21264	12848	9652	4945	5076	4388	3748	3782	5501	3207	2540	2728	2543	2076	2011	1741	1153	860	1362	970	288	305	394	408	377	406	421	337
SOx	1B2c	247	0	60	85	88	247	225	258	2697	2012	2862	1494	1525	1655	1863	1449	1786	1696	1185	3042	2707	2091	1436	1791	1107	1628	1485	1527	1802	1563	2028
SOx	2A2	5709	5333	5164	5661	5603	5789	5642	5946	6368	6496	5874	5568	5772	5482	3155	3143	3087	3131	2272	661	1011	119	252	209	352	305	305	273	225	192	91
SOx	2B10a	17390	15727	13167	11194	9363	8977	8464	9133	9286	8043	7634	6844	7024	4383	4030	4570	4137	5408	4145	2308	3200	3329	2466	2454	2344	2463	2605	2789	2585	2530	2273
SOx	2C1	10628	10978	9441	8965	9294	8584	7668	6207	6280	6825	8058	6130	6645	6017	6618	6369	5678	5923	5714	3841	5007	5360	5807	6026	5421	4698	5609	5210	6318	5870	3543
SOx	2C7c	7269	6845	4478	4890	4647	3701	3894	2604	2727	3176	3609	3697	3302	3273	3698	3241	2809	3464	3104	1229	1928	2129	2416	2476	3032	2891	2732	2295	2095	1990	1612
CO	2A2	19682	13695	12113	12431	14051	12282	10661	12373	12717	14884	34106	33651	39298	36685	17462	36581	33605	17195	25605	19208	36796	26753	1516	170365	2667	31547	1483	1259	1303	1286	1053

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM2.5	2C1	6257	5564	5015	5086	5148	4377	4582	3465	3741	779	1362	1102	943	624	802	1051	965	623	468	539	492
PM2.5	5E	632	633	636	639	642	645	649	654	659	666	675	680	732	750	580	718	692	830	728	873	893
PM10	2C1	8905	7991	6986	7192	7206	6117	6234	4569	4935	973	1642	1325	1204	791	1049	1347	1229	843	660	719	656
PM10	5E	632	633	636	639	642	645	649	654	659	667	677	681	732	750	580	718	692	830	729	873	893
BC	1A1c	280	253	198	91	94	93	91	68	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A1a	37536607	33330914	43392051	3365562	3225274	9469892	6796811	5898369	3030955	1209547	1452583	1234645	1070202	1075423	1176145	1320651	739826	557560	629361	944494	513433	608054	514057	353886	358940	316455	396470	312291	333854	357438	333321
Pb	1A2a	1428361	1652968	1581125	1535559	1473074	1139174	1133349	1119423	1164410	993646	1106846	817479	1199903	716207	861821	826715	614983	827072	817659	800055	1266848	1229790	1132403	1033794	1016613	951373	960728	217123	154379	148125	143721
Pb	1A3bi	107361005	102687300	102379288	88609588	81177066	77698096	73085266	66528608	65826649	59087032	4740008	4600617	4371850	4403666	4020700	56441	52144	49247	45202	3844	3717	3650	3565	3510	3613	3784	3905	3927	4112	4313	3511
Pb	1A3bi(fu)	92566844	89812965	83239725	72871971	65231754	60430569	57119634	54153153	52677706	47308011	3849822	3656200	3434069	3366406	3183937	49444	44209	41043	37831	3296	3263	3248	3300	3265	3318	3412	3592	3760	3903	4087	3244
Pb	1A4bi	2210864	2566404	2352632	2298457	1519769	1504494	1721409	1451098	1286217	1196151	1044698	1125933	942358	989288	949138	947035	949993	907808	1086846	1231853	1032376	817669	892786	1019353	779814	830687	838255	779289	763524	724871	667593
Pb	2A2	461309	433992	419216	419421	439755	447393	431554	430594	454050	463822	443330	425962	441157	418820	172455	115930	385259	441345	165647	106769	2346883	95037	69648	87682	101231	44355	88811	267615	54736	66379	52956
Pb	2A3	3202367	2730787	3151397	1611919	16677680	18375517	17828294	17539230	1530258	1262778	1051731	1181689	1464469	1621794	1896895	1394762	1030716	2660508	2440361	1740437	499110	376199	335460	363681	399847	341577	368829	290107	270194	270889	263868
Pb	2G	1664249	1664050	1663500	1662795	1663247	1664338	1766225	1830496	1639243	1784952	1470385	1073950	756202	685443	281472	448029	712905	1079478	1474413	1812979	1846158	1832691	1553797	1297341	968174	867086	751153	696124	621456	680569	619958
Pb	2L				707	415	503	227865	80725	214110	3439	1217134	1154704	1121000	856254	457035	807029	2861943	2310220	1946553	1664413	1922000	820000	246000	131850	105000	94500	42000	47390	47390	47390	47390
Pb	5C1a	15828485	14971566	10025570	31713116	926928	7125158	505844	435397	173231	126512	250048	139116	200215	125800	153758	160	163	7856	148	4310	613	767	1648	8779	1397	1283	2782	875	1507	2066	3758
Cd	1A1a	1253331	1151444	1398237	349901	346563	417996	777618	283580	273169	110757	151261	98298	151977	161383	198345	125900	85271	105406	251980	121249	135823	143785	121926	90471	68180	83265	94336	100551	134255	113729	129251
Cd	1A2a	52599	53390	54136	50630	56835	53662	52424	45191	54223	46597	46905	44550	39898	33475	37714	36076	66943	31213	88340	54301	74423	53811	30491	33926	23259	18131	16910	3924	2947	2903	2595
Cd	1A2c	33830	36557	33707	30907	29243	29696	18029	15197	19993	17523	67765	68040	60151	59620	62561	63126	60428	56571	59511	59334	63968	69550	59541	53369	59787	59034	944228	50545	58667	48320	52366
Cd	1B2aiv							195	292	292	292	220096	227674	233563	233084	232583	41552	59229	36469	44875	37949	34580	23053	40756	39122	44909	44227	40391	40774	36545	44130	35441
Cd	2A3	35338	31881	32976	32894	338815	436809	467713	385113	51891	84663	75676	79628	80403	99913	144012	135571	123270	148760	143818	115644	107840	68512	71448	66400	78697	71874	74995	57491	51051	40193	39911
Cd	2C1	636045	587983	536360	466153	467505	503471	627628	707685	594132	615481	917790	614970	828666	836250	1156183	678497	904431	767657	884384	301733	550128	426693	203919	192481	146206	474665	506859	248516	68374	123441	70862
Cd	2C7c	2283108	2293636	3108551	3592027	1730000	2358095	1186965	1945262	457807	580942	290066	386546	232111	247894	196255	259560	116284	110846	96921	52457	49039	56987	66172	53260	63293	93134	68094	58408	74427	58257	56616
Cd	5C1a	806527	780426	572911	95172	78884	271751	36165	32619	9926	10934	7080	5390	21409	6704	12173	16	9	236	18685	3098	189	266	214	8405	936	711	2414	308	178	452	833
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	6016544	5830184	6604500	5439768	3852996	4889515	4022769	4177370	2242878	2205478	2566133	2277899	2359349	2461680	2980055	2365235	2494502	2269674	2663402	1732909	1926961	1644404	1444022	1431169	1217891	1595744	2529419	1298894	1146955	1136012	1029465
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	6015340	5829364	6603301	5438467	3851642	4888094	4021293	4175952	2241438	2204224	2564792	2276367	2357756	2459810	2977962	2363822	2492923	2267986	2661282	1730860	1925217	1642873	1443032	1430291	1216856	1594270	2528047	1298053	1146151	1135489	1028454
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	6015340	5829364	6603301	5438467	3851642	4888094	4021293	4175952	2241438	2204224	2564792	2276367	2357756	2459810	2977962	2363822	2492923	2267986	2661282	1730860	1925217	1642873	1443032	1430291	1216856	1594270	2528047	1298053	1146151	1135489	1028454
Hg	1A1a	2451115	2300559	2480388	1088058	968670	1102053	937553	1083220	852500	446798	558358	504955	1348464	1294547	986638	219955	190893	234941	356707	230273	268973	379800	106472	155212	271380	161583	218276	273594	211034	220255	175801
Hg	1A1c	376406	333204	292671	252117	237779	238379	238142	213270	184976	178275	179742	182465	152762	151948	163104	158500	77750	59238	17576	17000	17000	16240	25000	25000	12000
Hg	1A2c	37463	59305	41784	39335	36539	32208	22415	18794	18926	12297	69929	69056	63005	61190	64588	65626	64699	62026	66172	64396	68615	72202	70819	66010	67429	69641	62896	59449	63479	57675	60929
Hg	1B2aiv							6	6	7	7	223644	232031	239311	239296	239819	29241	47371	24296	30459	24673	21323	12180	29380	29160	34718	34087	32306	28322	25640	32147	25039
Hg	2A1	326189	325276	335153	331462	343022	348874	326788	334388	333969	331441	310300	290861	367045	410714	563506	236981	228889	392677	441841	537714	227821	251292	248466	237799	286475	186500	367366	121546	201086	201538	250800
Hg	2A3	46588	37371	41953	43217	44328	49866	47542	48065	51689	46831	50480	56423	54293	55243	49135	28121	31984	34394	31114	28540	28040	30091	48379	36093	32775	29480	35439	5104	28814	21466	27789
Hg	2B10a	981447	983008	1024553	1065395	1722050	584225	570792	892189	398047	498396	684855	498362	346135	306046	345300	271042	291753	216986	221201	224160	199160	213694	189343	304830	273424	153295	150458	146845	33687	1039	850
Hg	2C1	258409	241005	212419	182194	260778	245771	205817	350701	387938	979528	553300	419043	743609	578418	603332	673116	600356	1601013	1867395	182072	390365	250252	150497	102241	193954	97212	118438	69514	444699	82259	89821
Hg	2C7c	28702	39047	59871	63232		11502	30310		142	22500	142327	142626	139192	159381	177694	112097	116589	110036	119229	40670	55871	57551	60303	54043	27236	30463	86234	62252	65387	116219	88843
Hg	5C1a	1070311	980854	755777	183169	99951	288188	386902	340625	32524	30777	18307	20509	11133	10880	11015	19	18	104	1232	165	195	34	181	4157	680	440	1150	252	260	273	468
Hg	5C1bi	53	53	1836	2666	13820	6210	12426	28661	39878	145320	12630	1000	900	180	1000	1000	1700	2500	4030	720	440	380	5300	920	3200	1060	3250	9000	6640	1969	29700
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	6069629	5805472	5727411	3713273	4136838	3331415	3274571	3741626	2687587	3049975	3206357	2829653	3873943	3677258	3606038	2211005	2083816	3192558	3643794	1758233	1723487	1683646	1288828	1375693	1504751	1067398	1390209	1052889	1351709	999497	994085
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	6065233	5802366	5722971	3708453	4132005	3326469	3269498	3736936	2682929	3046006	3202087	2824835	3868950	3671346	3599420	2206439	2078804	3187226	3637040	1751691	1717896	1678793	1285706	1372921	1501460	1062672	1385785	1050227	1349104	997747	990722
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	6065233	5802366	5722971	3708453	4132005	3326469	3269498	3736936	2682929	3046006	3202087	2824835	3868950	3671346	3599420	2206439	2078804	3187226	3637040	1751691	1717896	1678793	1285706	1372921	1501460	1062672	1385785	1050227	1349104	997747	990722

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	1A2a	182	165	164	142	161	167	162	143	159	156	162	131	143	134	129	110	1482	3548	12889	2132	1115	133	34	28	30	274	202	220	180	130	127
DIOX	5C1bi	7892	7892	7892	8451	12507	8291	9978	8316	1611	1518	1706	1940	111	133	43					91	83	221	173	190	199	160	161	118	105	106	106
DIOX	5E	6138	6164	6188	6218	6238	6257	6266	6287	6297	6310	6326	6340	6370	6401	6427	6461	6504	6551	6603	6656	6889	6776	7373	7556	5857	7244	6973	8170	7290	8756	8955
HCB	2A1	8671990	8765150	9375910	9290940	9622780	9271950	8579370	9040050	9001430	8864320	9341600	8929870	8371980	7826170	7734410	8368340	8708740	8650670	8369240	7597110	7111150	6042740	6000880	2501920	2851140	936330	547890	29320980	1254340	490960	149810
HCB	2C1	9393266	8470436	7176606	7547176	6134366	7038646	5938198	6620211	7207003	7161976	7702628	8105351	8738294	8573051	7620996	6364040	6513467	6286405	6744098	856756	2200202	18307043	7719679	276543	260257	225061	233184	1332755	336777	206753	787333
HCB	5C1bi	16442	16442	16442	17606	26056	17273	20788	17326	16106	15178	17059	19396	22273	26637	8562					1079670	1050300	1173436	1197361	1354560	1408788	1454298	1328812	1472196	1422709	1415079	1415079
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	40139302	39320001	38638589	58097877	86392640	114924801	92690040	82393728	56224351	41145524	21050595	20701853	20729710	19781368	19788949	19242207	19996062	20229878	19081923	11722182	11599372	26671167	15877661	5139726	5455600	3599457	3064869	33107262	3978867	3014494	3254875
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	40139116	39319841	38638327	58097624	86392354	114924492	92689723	82393412	56224026	41145253	21050279	20701489	20729337	19780922	19788358	19241772	19995589	20229373	19081195	11721467	11598789	26670711	15877408	5139536	5455404	3599189	3064645	33107139	3978774	3014450	3254798
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	40139116	39319841	38638327	58097624	86392354	114924492	92689723	82393412	56224026	41145253	21050279	20701489	20729337	19780922	19788358	19241772	19995589	20229373	19081195	11721467	11598789	26670711	15877408	5139536	5455404	3599189	3064645	33107139	3978774	3014450	3254798
PCB	1A1a	19652	20310	19944	20298	20615	20698	22411	19918	19488	17915	17651	20186	23162	27326	21171	18342	41465	58422	75342	61632	52292	55042	50612	44922	57401	74932	95502	117632	427212	189782	388432
PCB	1A4bi	3223246	3757823	3367699	3268052	1957418	1924576	2202809	1863397	1584660	1457392	1161180	1237998	1007514	907094	764380	788650	757409	707190	735563	875640	500990	475584	417157	480570	412417	334568	228614	206914	188066	147384	136978
PCB	2A1	3260770	3204630	3312730	3250070	3401970	3360610	3157380	3279540	3242360	3168920	3395340	3202070	3064550	2905830	2865460	3064050	3175340	3168220	3074720	2716980	70799230	45376190	3751490	2674400	8060740	1301520	3312850	915690	2815050	2828250	1821960
PCB	2C1	90328880	77128060	69647310	64218860	69921670	75961940	64987880	70862810	83859590	75483740	82003320	84777540	87571880	83747880	79444140	64533960	75197710	58957020	59386110	10499580	22812490	10427100	4816380	1669820	2621360	1021190	1249360	1235540	989860	887180	901850