Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BE Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	335538	329976	323731	316785	299420	290227	282451	270236	261923	246748	224455	218598	203665	193404	182538	149178	172485	162656	154848	142958	112512	130537	127382	123817	117157	116231	115621	114135	113042	111497
SOx	1B2c	247	0	60	85	88	247	225	258	2697	2012	2862	1494	1525	1655	1863	1449	1786	1696	1185	3042	2707	2091	1436	1791	1107	1628	1485	1527	1802	1563
SOx	2A2	5709	5333	5164	5661	5603	5789	5642	5946	6368	6496	5874	5568	5772	5482	3155	3143	3087	3131	2272	661	1011	119	252	209	352	305	305	273	225	192
SOx	2B10a	17390	15727	13167	11194	9363	8977	8464	9133	9286	8043	7634	6844	7024	4383	4030	4570	4137	5408	4145	2308	3200	3329	2466	2454	2344	2463	2605	2789	2585	2530
SOx	2C1	10628	10978	9441	8965	9294	8584	7668	6207	6280	6825	8058	6130	6645	6017	6618	6369	5678	5923	5714	3841	5007	5360	5807	6026	5421	4698	5609	5210	6318	5870
SOx	2C7c	7269	6845	4478	4890	4647	3701	3894	2604	2727	3176	3609	3697	3302	3273	3698	3241	2809	3464	3104	1229	1928	2129	2416	2476	3032	2891	2732	2295	2095	1990
CO	2A2	19682	13695	12113	12431	14051	12282	10661	12373	12717	14884	34106	33651	39298	36685	17462	36581	33605	17195	25605	19208	36796	26753	1516	170365	2667	31547	1483	1259	1303	1286

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	1A3bvi(fu)	913	931	947	953	972	981	998	1023	988	977	989	992	994	982	998	1008	1024	1044	1055	1053
PM2.5	1A3bvii(fu)	503	511	519	522	531	534	544	559	539	533	540	541	540	536	544	550	557	568	571	578
PM2.5	2C1	6257	5564	5015	5086	5148	4377	4582	3465	3741	779	1362	1102	943	624	802	1051	965	623	468	539
PM2.5	5E	620	621	624	627	630	633	637	642	647	654	663	668	734	750	580	719	692	830	717	862
PM10	1A3bvii(fu)	931	947	961	966	983	989	1008	1036	999	987	1000	1003	1000	993	1008	1019	1032	1051	1058	1071
PM10	2C1	8905	7991	6986	7192	7206	6117	6234	4569	4935	973	1642	1325	1204	791	1049	1347	1229	843	660	719
PM10	5E	620	621	624	628	630	633	638	642	647	654	665	669	735	751	581	719	692	830	717	862
TSP	1A3bvi(fu)	2231	2274	2312	2328	2373	2395	2435	2498	2410	2384	2413	2421	2428	2397	2435	2461	2500	2547	2575	2570
TSP	1A3bvii(fu)	1863	1894	1922	1933	1966	1978	2015	2072	1997	1973	1999	2005	1999	1987	2017	2037	2064	2102	2116	2142
TSP	2A5a	4399	4399	4399	4399	4399	4435	4399	4487	4487	4487	4290	4391	4592	4611	4565	4521	4600	4560	4449	4601
BC	1A1c	280	253	198	91	94	93	91	68	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
BC	1A3bvi(fu)	101	103	104	105	108	109	111	114	110	109	110	110	110	109	111	112	114	117	118	117

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1a	37554600	33360767	43553141	3409733	3257704	9523371	6854691	6011569	3070794	1219847	1503319	1263267	1077769	1085844	1287161	1322355	1184346	967908	1129275	1445365	1004462	1078422	1012896	796468	795478	793019	926257	798406	857818	800046
Pb	1A2a	1428361	1652968	1581125	1535559	1473074	1139174	1133349	1119423	1164410	993646	1106846	817479	1199903	716207	861821	826715	614983	827072	817659	800055	1266848	1229790	1132403	1033794	1016613	951373	960727	217123	154380	148125
Pb	1A2d	80473	86034	83792	43707	105292	136890	131792	184503	190040	183693	390804	405413	438698	353555	417921	513272	554676	250250	253083	254108	291728	318997	330088	356396	362816	706978	659895	685878	702395	621910
Pb	1A3bi	107704234	102995632	102669622	88842944	81379893	77871027	73230629	66644217	65951555	59205306	4751676	4614589	4385965	4416603	4030956	56623	52307	49377	45243	3730	3371	3307	3218	3162	3272	3511	3538	3400	3546	3714
Pb	1A3bi(fu)	92140214	89376413	82871660	72535071	64947021	60172550	56865752	53921392	52449652	47118193	3833859	3642263	3421514	3352650	3168905	49137	44027	40880	36744	3139	2877	2852	2866	2815	2866	3007	3068	3055	3146	3254
Pb	1A4bi	2209517	2565057	2351285	2297109	1518422	1503147	1720061	1449751	1284870	1194804	1043351	1124598	942688	994286	954236	951481	954906	915336	1094083	1242529	1039342	819792	890501	1023069	777856	832110	855437	796719	775570	735864
Pb	2A2	461309	433992	419216	419421	439755	447393	431554	430594	454050	463822	443330	425962	441157	418820	172455	115930	385259	441345	165647	106769	2346883	95037	69648	87682	101231	44355	88811	267615	54736	66379
Pb	2A3	3202367	2730787	3151397	1611919	16677680	18375517	17828294	17539230	1530258	1262778	1051731	1181689	1464469	1621794	1896895	1394762	1030716	2660508	2440361	1740437	499110	376199	335460	363681	399847	341577	368829	290107	280782	282791
Pb	2G	1664253	1664053	1663503	1662797	1663251	1664343	1766230	1830498	1639246	1784955	1470389	1073954	756206	685447	281477	448033	712909	1079482	1474551	1812983	1846167	1832700	1553808	1297353	968187	867101	751170	696142	621476	680588
Pb	2L				707	415	503	227865	80725	214110	3439	1217134	1154704	1121000	856254	457035	807029	2861943	2310220	1946553	1664413	1922000	820000	246000	131850	105000	94500	42000	47390	47390	47390
Pb	5C1a	15828485	14971566	10025570	31713116	926928	7125158	505844	435397	173231	126512	250048	139116	200215	125800	153758	160	163	7856	148	4310	613	767	1648	8779	1397	1283	2782	875	1507	2066
Cd	1A1a	1253851	1152314	1401380	351439	347373	418210	777692	284780	274488	111957	186222	100700	154457	162184	202780	131455	125438	144277	288707	161409	183061	184742	162237	135913	107908	126221	148654	153128	171566	160332
Cd	1A2c	33380	35757	32707	30907	29243	29696	18029	15197	19993	17523	67765	68038	60149	59618	62560	63124	60426	56569	59509	59332	63966	69548	59539	53368	59786	59032	944227	50543	58659	48612
Cd	1B2aiv							195	292	292	292	220096	227674	233563	233084	232583	41552	59229	36469	44875	37949	34580	23053	40756	39122	44909	44227	40391	40774	36545	44130
Cd	2A3	35338	31881	32976	32894	338815	436809	467713	385113	51891	84663	75676	79628	80403	99913	144012	135571	123270	148760	143818	115644	107840	68512	71448	66400	78697	71874	74995	57491	54581	44160
Cd	2C1	636045	587983	536360	466153	467505	503471	627628	707685	594132	615481	917790	614970	828666	836250	1156183	678497	904431	767657	884384	301733	550128	426693	203919	192481	146206	474665	506859	248516	68374	123441
Cd	2C7c	2283108	2293636	3108551	3592027	1730000	2358095	1186965	1945262	457807	580942	290066	386546	232111	247894	196255	259560	116284	110846	96921	52457	49039	56987	66172	53260	63293	93134	68094	58408	74427	58257
Cd	5C1a	806527	780426	572911	95172	78884	271751	36165	32619	9926	10934	7080	5390	21409	6704	12173	16	9	236	18685	3098	189	266	214	8405	936	711	2414	308	178	452
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	6015426	5829048	6603264	5438524	3851726	4888206	4021426	4175977	2241459	2204008	2566076	2276314	2358580	2463175	2879253	2157907	2332735	2131540	2429205	1560331	1974276	1684913	1482259	1474713	1254076	1636958	2586948	1356544	1195484	1188466
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	6014184	5828162	6602019	5437186	3850337	4886756	4019927	4174544	2240004	2202729	2564712	2274770	2356975	2461306	2877180	2156476	2331146	2129852	2427097	1558281	1972398	1683212	1481003	1473523	1252724	1635157	2585207	1355283	1194211	1187504
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	6014184	5828162	6602019	5437186	3850337	4886756	4019927	4174544	2240004	2202729	2564712	2274770	2356975	2461306	2877180	2156476	2331146	2129852	2427097	1558281	1972398	1683212	1481003	1473523	1252724	1635157	2585207	1355283	1194211	1187504
Hg	1A1a	2462158	2334412	2503324	1108724	1000490	1119263	955976	1117840	893619	448098	571727	506712	1349981	1295431	968672	205511	211618	262080	380944	246525	287586	381438	126252	170384	291914	181266	226412	277417	234171	251100
Hg	1A1c	376406	333204	292671	252117	237779	238379	238142	213270	184976	178275	179742	182465	152762	151948	163104	158500	77750	59238	17576	17000	17000	16240	25000	25000	12000
Hg	1B2aiv							6	6	7	7	223644	232031	239311	239296	239819	29241	47371	24296	30459	24673	21323	12180	29380	29160	34718	34087	32306	28322	25640	32147
Hg	2A1	326189	325276	335153	331462	343022	348874	326788	334388	333969	331441	310300	290861	367045	410714	563506	236981	228889	392677	441841	537714	227821	251292	248466	237799	286475	186500	367366	121546	201086	201536
Hg	2A3	46588	37371	41953	43217	44328	49866	47542	48065	51689	46831	50480	56423	54293	55243	49135	28121	31984	34394	31114	28540	28040	30091	48379	36093	32775	29480	35439	5104	28885	21397
Hg	2B10a	981447	983008	1024553	1065395	1722050	584225	570792	892189	398047	498396	684855	498362	346135	306046	345300	271042	291753	216986	221201	224160	199160	213694	189343	304830	273424	153295	150458	146845	33687	1039
Hg	2C1	258409	241005	212419	182194	260778	245771	205817	350701	387938	979528	553300	419043	743609	578418	603332	673116	600356	1601013	1867395	182072	390365	250252	150497	102241	193954	97212	118438	69514	444699	82259
Hg	2C7c	28702	39047	59871	63232		11502	30310		142	22500	142327	142626	139192	159381	177694	112097	116589	110036	119229	40670	55871	57551	60303	54043	27236	30463	86234	62252	65387	116219
Hg	5C1a	1070311	980854	755777	183169	99951	288188	386902	340625	32524	30777	18307	20509	11133	10880	11015	19	18	104	1232	165	195	34	181	4157	680	440	1150	252	260	273
Hg	5C1bi							2003	2041	1999	144220
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	6060981	5795591	5716253	3700907	4121269	3331438	3274586	3741631	2687597	3049984	3206784	2829618	3873857	3677350	3571752	2164761	2073299	3191205	3624145	1740895	1736665	1679967	1298382	1385212	1517131	1082679	1390619	1042378	1362887	1025084
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	6056211	5792088	5711425	3695693	4116048	3326120	3269152	3736603	2682589	3045678	3202164	2824448	3868508	3671073	3564760	2159796	2067918	3185520	3617042	1734199	1730901	1674818	1294613	1381641	1513051	1076975	1385194	1038472	1358908	1021667
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	6056211	5792088	5711425	3695693	4116048	3326120	3269152	3736603	2682589	3045678	3202164	2824448	3868508	3671073	3564760	2159796	2067918	3185520	3617042	1734199	1730901	1674818	1294613	1381641	1513051	1076975	1385194	1038472	1358908	1021667

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1A2a	182	165	164	142	161	167	162	143	159	156	162	131	143	134	129	110	1482	3548	12889	2132	1115	133	34	28	30	274	202	220	180	130
DIOX	5E	6121	6148	6172	6202	6222	6241	6250	6270	6281	6294	6308	6324	6353	6384	6410	6444	6485	6533	6585	6639	6871	6757	7373	7556	5857	7244	6973	8170	7290	8756
HCB	2A1	8671990	8765150	9375910	9290940	9622780	9271950	8579370	9040050	9001430	8864320	9341600	8929870	8371980	7826170	7734410	8368340	8708740	8650670	8369240	7597110	7111150	6042740	6000880	2501920	2851140	936330	547890	29320980	1254340	490920
HCB	2C1	9393266	8470436	7176606	7547176	6134366	7038646	5938198	6620211	7207003	7161976	7702628	8105351	8738294	8573051	7620996	6364040	6513467	6286405	6744098	856756	2200202	18307043	7719679	276543	260257	225061	233184	1332755	336777	206753
HCB	5C1biv	7149414	7149414	7149414	14467184	22740520	21339126	16875253	16192303	7067873	3381790	117906	113448	91837	77850	68007
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	40141520	39322260	38640898	58100171	86394934	114927111	92692363	82395986	56226556	41147779	21052946	20704222	20732369	19784821	19762393	19183903	19940750	20181756	19005435	11663781	11602936	26673758	15879557	5142635	5457318	3601985	3070442	33112960	3983538	3072160
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	40141321	39322086	38640623	58099903	86394629	114926781	92692023	82395646	56226204	41147480	21052597	20703824	20731959	19784335	19761759	19183425	19940233	20181209	19004689	11663049	11602296	26673249	15879243	5142383	5457065	3601659	3070162	33112786	3983396	3072078
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	40141321	39322086	38640623	58099903	86394629	114926781	92692023	82395646	56226204	41147480	21052597	20703824	20731959	19784335	19761759	19183425	19940233	20181209	19004689	11663049	11602296	26673249	15879243	5142383	5457065	3601659	3070162	33112786	3983396	3072078
PCB	1A2b																									29370	95400	520000	5500	700000	114000
PCB	1A4bi	3223246	3757823	3367699	3268052	1957418	1924576	2202809	1863397	1584660	1457392	1161180	1237998	1007514	907104	764390	788660	757419	707210	735583	875670	501010	475584	417157	480580	412368	334582	228651	206957	188061	150014
PCB	2A1	3260770	3204630	3312730	3250070	3401970	3360610	3157380	3279540	3242360	3168920	3395340	3202070	3064550	2905830	2865460	3064050	3175340	3168220	3074720	2716980	70799230	45376190	3751490	2674400	8060740	1301520	3312850	915690	2815050	2828190
PCB	2C1	90328880	77128060	69647310	64218860	69921670	75961940	64987880	70862810	83859590	75483740	82003320	84777540	87571880	83747880	79444140	64533960	75197710	58957020	59386110	10499580	22812490	10427100	4816380	1669820	2621360	1021190	1249360	1235540	989860	887180