Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BE Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	338072	332592	326543	319531	301105	291974	284089	271994	264011	248786	225923	220261	204728	194895	184266	148478	174602	165176	157643	145749	112359	133056	129966	126796	120179	118120	118218	116690	115890
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	338072	332592	326543	319531	301105	291974	284089	271994	264011	248786	225923	220261	204728	194895	184266	181210	174602	165176	157643	145749	112359	133056	129966	126796	120179	118120	118218	116690	115890
SOx	1B2c	247	0	60	85	88	247	225	258	2697	2012	2862	1494	1525	1655	1863	1566	1919	1826	1185	3042	2707	2091	1436	1791	1107	1628	1485	1527	1802
SOx	2A2	5709	5333	5164	5661	5603	5789	5642	5946	6368	6496	5874	5568	5772	5482	3155	3143	3087	3131	2272	661	1011	119	252	209	352	305	305	273	225
SOx	2B10a	17390	15727	13167	11194	9363	8977	8464	9133	9286	8043	7634	6844	7310	4680	4417	4974	4197	5503	4145	2308	3200	3329	2466	2454	2344	2463	2605	2789	2585
SOx	2C1	10628	10978	9441	8965	9294	8584	7668	6207	6280	6825	8058	6130	6645	6017	6618	6116	5454	5689	5714	3841	5007	5360	5807	6026	5421	4698	5609	5210	6318
SOx	2C7c	7269	6845	4478	4890	4647	3701	3894	2591	2727	3171	3609	3697	3297	3261	3698	2994	2547	3191	3104	1229	1928	2129	2416	2476	3032	2891	2732	2295	2095
CO	2A2	19682	13695	12113	12431	14051	12282	10660	12373	12717	14884	34106	33651	39298	36685	17462	36581	33605	17195	25605	19208	36796	26753	1516	170365	2667	31547	1483	1259	1303

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM2.5	5E	611	612	615	618	620	623	627	632	637	642	647	654	731	749	579	718	692	704	708
PM10	1A3bvii(fu)	931	947	961	966	983	989	1008	1036	999	987	1000	1003	1000	993	1008	1019	1032	1051	1063
TSP	1A3bvii(fu)	1863	1894	1922	1933	1966	1978	2015	2072	1997	1973	1999	2005	1999	1987	2017	2037	2064	2102	2127
TSP	2A5a	4399	4399	4399	4399	4399	4435	4399	4487	4487	4487	4290	4391	4592	4611	4565	4521	4600	4560	4449
BC	1A1c	280	253	198	91	94	93	91	68	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A1a	37554598	33360765	43553139	3409728	3257272	9523375	6854688	6010907	3070794	1219215	1503319	1263273	1077773	1085846	1287160	1309707	1185342	967910	1126974	1444162	999360	1076523	1012849	796465	795482	793022	926254	798408	857817
Pb	1A2a	1428364	1652972	1581124	1535559	1473070	1139172	1133349	1119422	1113866	993649	1064084	765610	1146591	665995	816414	808078	614984	827075	817655	800056	1266847	1229789	1132408	1033799	1016636	951399	960749	217128	154386
Pb	1A2d	80477	86031	83788	43706	105290	136892	131791	184500	190035	183690	390800	405417	438699	353559	417925	513277	554674	250250	253078	254108	291727	318994	330087	356396	362820	706973	659897	685879	702477
Pb	1A3bi	107245630	102564344	102236799	88479556	81076905	77590980	72934945	66430111	65667799	58970788	4729936	4589615	4360634	4392191	4009340	56262	51946	49084	45045	3834	3708	3651	3568	3513	3617	3790	3914	3937	4134
Pb	1A3bi(fu)	91709604	88978360	82519849	72241984	64693348	59956554	56679333	53761584	52280800	46958650	3818200	3624258	3403371	3335952	3154282	48979	43795	40687	37506	3279	3247	3234	3285	3251	3304	3398	3577	3743	3915
Pb	1A4bi	2205229	2560770	2346993	2292815	1512027	1497884	1715772	1445463	1277813	1189876	1039065	1120300	936717	940706	891878	908572	928904	901825	1003832	1129451	1025861	804196	881594	1010448	762790	815289	837795	780486	782927
Pb	2A2	461310	433990	419220	419420	439760	447390	431550	430590	454050	463820	443330	425960	441160	418820	172450	115930	385260	441340	165650	106770	2346880	95040	69650	87680	101230	44360	88810	267620	54740
Pb	2A3	3202369	2730784	3151401	1611919	16677680	18375520	17828293	17539230	1530262	1262780	1051727	1181692	1464469	1621790	1896898	1394762	1030717	2660505	2440365	1740439	499109	376202	335464	363677	399846	341574	368831	290103	280774
Pb	2G	1661980	1661765	1661215	1660626	1661071	1661966	1763664	1827900	1636505	1782260	1467602	1071422	753419	682628	278715	445306	710085	1076897	1472111	1810467	1843575	1830441	1551318	1294689	965580	864467	748714	693656	620658
Pb	2L				707		503	227865	80696	214110	2996	1217134	1154704	1121000	856254	457035	807029	2861943	2310220	1946553	1664413	1922000	820000	246000	131850	105000	94500	42000	47390	47390
Pb	5C1a	15828487	14971565	10025566	31713118	926928	7125167	505847	435399	173229	126180	250046	139113	200219	125801	153760	11840	160	7860	150	4310	610	770	1650	8780	1400	1280	2780	870	1510
Cd	1A1a	1253852	1152310	1401381	351441	347563	418209	777686	283883	274484	111954	186219	100699	154463	162184	202782	128805	124924	144272	287806	160610	182061	183838	162194	135909	107908	126219	148655	153126	171568
Cd	1A2c	33380	35760	32710	30910	29240	29700	18030	15200	19990	17520	67766	68037	60144	59620	62559	63125	60424	56567	59510	59334	63966	69549	59540	53363	59456	58749	945574	52108	60987
Cd	1B2aiv							195		292	292	220096	227674	233563	233084	232583	41552	59229	36469	44875	37949	34580	23053	40756	39122	44909	44227	40391	40774	36545
Cd	2A3	35340	31879	32974	32892	338820	436810	467716	385110	51896	84660	75671	79632	80400	99912	144012	135571	123268	148762	143818	115649	107840	68515	71453	66403	78693	71879	74993	57494	54582
Cd	2C1	922920	851330	772910	685230	761060	777590	849907	945530	833596	841136	1135994	829463	828667	836250	1156180	678501	904435	767662	884381	301730	550127	426696	203922	192477	146514	475457	507818	249514	68670
Cd	2C7c	2283108	2293636	3108551	3592027	1730000	2358095	1186963	1945140	457805	580940	290068	386544	231438	247453	195053	258256	115090	109682	94292	50353	46457	55486	61694	53125	62332	92842	67593	57927	77797
Cd	5C1a	806526	780427	572909	95171	78881	271755	36167	32617	9925	10931	7083	5390	21404	6705	12170	2823	10	240	18680	3100	190	270	210	8400	940	710	2410	310	180
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	6245048	6034716	6782655	5603695	4091111	5102795	4177222	4345702	2408413	2361136	2780183	2486474	2352562	2454087	2869261	2149844	2324362	2122377	2416983	1546309	1962948	1673507	1471250	1465817	1245449	1628019	2579602	1348903	1201898
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	6243817	6033838	6781419	5602369	4089731	5101359	4175753	4344305	2407005	2359906	2778877	2484994	2351026	2452294	2867274	2148503	2322866	2120784	2415007	1544392	1961312	1672054	1470289	1464959	1244446	1626605	2578279	1348067	1201119
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	6243817	6033838	6781419	5602369	4089731	5101359	4175753	4344305	2407005	2359906	2778877	2484994	2351026	2452294	2867274	2148503	2322866	2120784	2415007	1544392	1961312	1672054	1470289	1464959	1244446	1626605	2578279	1348067	1201119
Hg	1A1a	2462155	2334412	2503321	1108728	1000675	1119263	955973	1117723	893617	446886	571724	506710	1349983	1295426	968671	189943	211802	262085	380744	244530	283285	380435	126210	170380	291909	181264	226415	277412	234109
Hg	1A1c	376410	333208	292674	252121	237780	238380	238145	213270	184980	178270	179740	182470	152760	151950	163100	158500	77750	59240	17580	17000	17000	16240	25000	25000	12000
Hg	1B2aiv							6		7		223644	232031	239311	239296	239819	29241	47371	24296	30459	24673	21323	12180	29380	29160	34718	34087	32306	28322	25640
Hg	2A1	326190	325280	335150	331460	343020	348870	326790	334390	333970	331440	310300	290860	367050	410710	563510	236980	228890	392680	441840	537710	227820	251290	248470	237800	286470	186500	367370	121550	201090
Hg	2A3	46591	37368	41955	43221	44330	49867	47539	48060	51685	46830	50484	56420	54294	55240	49137	28121	31981	34393	31118	28540	28044	30092	48380	36095	32779	29482	35437	5101	28871
Hg	2B10a	981447	983008	1024553	1065395	1722030	584222	570792	892489	398047	498040	684855	498362	346135	306046	345300	271042	291753	216986	221201	224160	199160	213697	189343	304830	273422	153298	150462	146850	33688
Hg	2C1	281829	262503	231733	200082	284740	268610	223960	370090	407482	997950	571482	436915	743610	578417	603332	673120	600354	1601016	1867394	182069	390369	250256	150501	102246	193949	97210	118436	69517	444699
Hg	2C7c	28702	39047	59871	63232		11502	30310		142	22500	142327	142626	138859	159137	177166	111491	115901	109582	106968	39284	55092	56917	56751	53952	26665	30310	76661	61232	65372
Hg	5C1a	1070313	980859	755776	183172	99953	288183	386896	340627	32523	30790	18303	20508	11129	10879	11020	13686	20	100	1230	170	190	30	180	4160	680	440	1150	250	260
Hg	5C1bi							2003	2041	1999	144220
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	6081802	5814464	5732944	3716395	4142943	3351601	3289833	3758225	2694971	3064088	3214160	2835397	3860812	3664385	3559405	2157417	2069500	3187715	3608266	1737165	1737221	1680950	1296353	1386263	1517992	1082276	1384893	1045987	1369670
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	6077033	5810965	5728130	3711194	4137736	3346329	3284499	3753315	2690128	3059962	3209730	2830434	3855686	3658343	3552660	2152743	2064393	3182311	3601479	1730572	1731568	1675995	1293094	1383349	1514560	1077391	1380268	1043099	1366931
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	6077033	5810965	5728130	3711194	4137736	3346329	3284499	3753315	2690128	3059962	3209730	2830434	3855686	3658343	3552660	2152743	2064393	3182311	3601479	1730572	1731568	1675995	1293094	1383349	1514560	1077391	1380268	1043099	1366931

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	1A2a	182	165	164	142	161	167	162	143	159	156	162	131	143	134	129	110	1482	3548	12889	2132	1115	133	34	28	30	274	202	220	180
DIOX	5E	6081	6108	6131	6161	6182	6200	6210	6231	6241	6254	6269	6284	6312	6343	6368	6401	6442	6489	6542	6593	6825	6710	7373	7556	5857	7244	7539	7224	7257
HCB	2A1	8672400	8765750	9376430	9291320	9622780	9271950	8579370	9040050	9001430	8864320	9341600	8929870	8371980	7826170	7734410	8368340	8708740	8650670	8369240	7597110	7111150	6042740	6000880	2501920	2851140	936330	547890	29320980	1254340
HCB	5C1biv	7149414	7149414	7149414	14467184	22740520	21339126	16875253	16192303	7067873	3381790	117906	113448	91837	77850	68007	52237
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	40142826	39321952	38641634	58098417	86394331	114926155	92690667	82393458	56224816	41146541	21050793	20703266	20731343	19782498	19759217	19181766	19938609	20179249	19002624	12175929	12759772	27739011	17162691	6247773	6631304	4717781	4045268	33909432	4831980
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	40142630	39321781	38641361	58098152	86394029	114925828	92690333	82393127	56224477	41146259	21050465	20702892	20730961	19782043	19758617	19181325	19938131	20178743	19001899	12175214	12759185	27738551	17162431	6247576	6631102	4717507	4045037	33909302	4831882
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	40142630	39321781	38641361	58098152	86394029	114925828	92690333	82393127	56224477	41146259	21050465	20702892	20730961	19782043	19758617	19181325	19938131	20178743	19001899	12175214	12759185	27738551	17162431	6247576	6631102	4717507	4045037	33909302	4831882
PCB	1A2b																									29370	95400	520000	5500	700000
PCB	1A4bi	3223236	3757813	3367689	3268042	1957408	1924566	2202799	1863387	1584650	1457382	1161170	1237998	1007524	907114	764419	788700	757488	707279	735683	875789	501180	475683	417327	480810	407502	330279	225195	204922	213498
PCB	2A1	3260770	3204630	3312730	3250070	3401970	3360610	3157380	3279540	3242360	3168920	3395340	3202070	3064550	2905830	2865460	3064050	3175340	3168220	3074720	2716980	70799230	45376190	3751490	2674400	8060740	1301520	3312850	915690	2815050
PCB	2C1	89838880	76648060	69227300	63768860	69361670	75461940	64497880	70262800	83269590	74923740	81663310	84357530	87191870	83437880	79224140	64093960	74737710	58507010	58926100	10209580	22812500	10427100	4816380	1669820	2621360	1021190	1249360	1235540	989860
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	98358389	85588590	77751422	72054906	76246049	82168563	71257422	76719796	89341390	80605902	87145341	89609536	91975101	88012232	83524155	68627895	79304841	63091306	63474375	14422018	94532723	56778546	9414023	5086973	11409123	3048266	5728039	2790615	5476925
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	98358332	85588548	77751362	72054840	76245980	82168489	71257347	76719723	89341315	80605838	87145273	89609459	91975022	88012139	83524047	68627821	79304760	63091219	63474264	14421909	94532631	56778466	9413971	5086928	11409072	3048193	5727972	2790573	5476887
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	98358332	85588548	77751362	72054840	76245980	82168489	71257347	76719723	89341315	80605838	87145273	89609459	91975022	88012139	83524047	68627821	79304760	63091219	63474264	14421909	94532631	56778466	9413971	5086928	11409072	3048193	5727972	2790573	5476887