Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BE Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
SOx	1B2c	247	0	60	85	88	247	225	258	2697	2012	2862	1494	1525	1655	1863	1566	1919	1826	1185	3042	2707	2091	1436	1791	1107	1628	1485	1527
SOx	2A2	5709	5333	5164	5661	5603	5789	5642	5946	6368	6496	5874	5568	5772	5482	3155	3143	3087	3131	2272	661	1011	119	252	209	352	305	305	273
SOx	2B10a	17390	15727	13167	11194	9363	8977	8464	9133	9286	8043	7634	6844	7310	4680	4417	4974	4197	5503	4145	2308	3200	3329	2466	2454	2344	2463	2605	2789
SOx	2C1	10628	10978	9441	8965	9294	8584	7668	6207	6280	6825	8058	6130	6645	6017	6618	6116	5454	5689	5714	3841	5007	5360	5807	6026	5421	4698	5609	5210
SOx	2C7c	7269	6845	4478	4890	4647	3701	3894	2591	2727	3171	3609	3697	3297	3261	3698	2994	2547	3191	3104	1229	1928	2129	2416	2476	3032	2891	2732	2295

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
PM10	1A3	11059	10646	9949	9626	9510	8910	8787	8629	7801	7246	7105	6559	6190	5836	5544	5323	5105	4911
PM10	2A5a	2240	2240	2240	2240	2240	2258	2240	2240	2336	2213	2163	2238	2369	2376	2357	2332	2369	2353
TSP	1A3	13011	12617	11939	11628	11541	10948	10855	10749	9924	9275	9155	8615	8242	7878	7610	7401	7209	7029
TSP	2A5a	5958	5958	5958	5958	5958	6007	5958	5958	6666	5741	5385	5893	6973	6950	6808	6667	6902	6780
BC	1A1c	280	253	198	91	94	93	91	68	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A1a	37554598	33360765	43553139	3409728	3257272	9523375	6854688	6010907	3070794	1219215	1503319	1263273	1077773	1085686	1284309	1301537	1176644	960656	1126984	1444173	999401	1076533	1012851	794640	807787	808028	926257	795910
Pb	1A2a	1428364	1652972	1581124	1535559	1473070	1139172	1133349	1119422	1113866	993649	1064084	765610	1146591	665995	816414	808078	614984	827075	817655	800056	1266847	1229789	1132408	1033799	1016635	951399	960749	217162
Pb	1A3	85315403	76178870	65885372	59461889	53021605	47537603	41954038	37376565	33532565	29557399	6146125	6043742	5944565	5913207	5851847	2607594	2655164	2688654	2591798	2556876	2597979	2607696	2621744	2779758	2868587	2870307	2917187	2951653
Pb	1A3bi	95774951	83781996	77273843	68188429	61172438	55708468	48256589	40520376	36173239	30837994	4548606	4452496	4269244	4330238	3997202	204979	211478	218322	228226	233892	232387	231742	226367	219087	222296	231014	230204	222575
Pb	1A4bi	2203881	2560770	2346993	2292815	1511935	1497892	1715414	1445268	1277725	1189922	1038939	1120302	1064969	937023	856235	934000	1032479	1104383	999602	1050042	1092637	860118	1003579	1157534	852734	901596	850581	797301
Pb	2A2	461310	433990	419220	419420	439760	447390	431550	430590	454050	463820	443330	425960	441160	418820	172450	115930	385260	441340	165650	106770	2346880	95040	69650	87680	101230	44360	88810	267620
Pb	2A3	3202369	2730784	3151401	1611919	16677680	18375520	17828293	17539230	1530262	1262780	1051727	1181692	1464469	1621790	1896898	1394942	1030717	2660505	2440365	1740439	499109	376202	335464	363677	399846	341574	368831	290103
Pb	2L				707		503	227865	80696	214110	2996	1217134	1154704	1121000	856254	457035	807029	2861943	2310220	1946553	1664413	1922000	820000	246000	131850	105000	94500	42000	47390
Pb	5C1a	15828487	14971565	10025566	31713118	926928	7125167	505847	435399	173229	126180	250046	139113	200219	125801	153760	11840	160	7860	150	4310	610	770	1650	8780	1400	1280	2780	870
Cd	1A1a	1253852	1152310	1401381	351441	347563	418209	777686	283883	274484	111954	186219	100699	154463	162131	202032	126655	122634	142363	287807	160612	182073	183840	162194	135183	109018	127572	148656	152962
Cd	1A2c	33380	35760	32710	30910	29240	29700	18030	15200	19990	17520	67766	68037	60144	59620	62559	62840	60424	56567	59510	59198	63674	69239	59286	54119	60971	59900	946604	56008
Cd	1B2aiv							195		292	292	220096	227674	233563	233084	232583	41552	59229	36469	44875	37949	34580	23053	40756	39122	44909	44227	40391	40774
Cd	2A3	35340	31879	32974	32892	338820	436810	467716	385110	51896	84660	75671	79632	80400	99912	144012	135631	123268	148762	143818	115649	107840	68515	71453	66403	78693	71879	74993	57494
Cd	2B10a	13800	13800	13800	13800	15800	13330	14130	7130	415100	5800	1160	1160	660	7450	7450	7450	3000	4500	7400	4410	5020	7640	6130	4700	2760	7140	4310	2490
Cd	2C1	922920	851330	772910	685230	786130	792140	858187	945530	851906	841136	1135994	829463	828667	836250	1156180	678501	904435	767662	884381	301730	550127	426696	203922	192477	146514	475457	507818	249514
Cd	2C7c	2283108	2293636	3108551	3592027	1730000	2358095	1186963	1945140	457805	580940	290068	386544	231438	247453	195053	258256	115090	109682	94292	50353	46457	55486	61694	53125	62332	92842	67593	57927
Cd	5C1a	806526	780427	572909	95171	78881	271755	36167	32617	9925	10931	7083	5390	21404	6705	12170	2823	10	240	18680	3100	190	270	210	8400	940	710	2410	310
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	6247060	6037335	6784806	5606212	4118155	5119217	4187475	4347077	2838052	2361971	2780656	2488091	2355700	2456197	2871336	2130266	2320075	2119651	2418742	1543775	1957844	1670501	1469924	1465558	1247598	1629493	2579927	1344219
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	6239850	6032292	6777837	5598365	4110088	5111168	4179013	4338782	2829783	2355015	2773053	2479499	2347152	2446296	2859670	2121756	2310853	2109747	2405904	1530811	1946054	1659799	1461593	1458534	1239625	1618725	2569224	1335650
Hg	1A1a	2462155	2334412	2503321	1108728	1000675	1119263	955973	1117723	893617	446886	571724	506705	1349981	1295367	968452	189324	211246	261943	381426	245263	284065	381203	126376	170422	292732	182425	226878	277551
Hg	1A1c	376410	333208	292674	252121	237780	238380	238145	213270	184980	178270	179740	182470	152760	151950	163100	158500	77750	59240	17580	17000	17000	16240	25000	25000	12000
Hg	1B2aiv							6		7		223644	232031	239311	239296	239819	29241	47371	24296	30459	24673	21323	12180	29380	29160	34718	34087	32306	28322
Hg	2A1	326190	325280	335150	331460	343020	348870	326790	334390	333970	331440	310300	290860	367050	410710	563510	236980	228890	392680	441840	537710	227820	251290	248470	237800	286470	186500	367370	121550
Hg	2B10a	981447	983008	1024553	1065395	1722030	584222	570792	892489	398047	498040	684855	498362	346135	306046	345300	271042	291753	216986	221201	224160	199160	213697	189343	304830	273422	153298	150462	146850
Hg	2C1	281829	262503	231733	200082	284740	268610	223960	370090	407482	997950	571482	436915	743610	578417	603332	673120	600354	1601016	1867394	182069	390369	250256	150501	102246	193949	97210	118436	69517
Hg	2C7c	28702	39047	59871	63232		11502	30310		142	22500	142327	142626	138859	159137	177166	111491	115901	109582	106968	39284	55092	56917	56751	53952	26665	30310	76661	61232
Hg	5C1a	1070313	980859	755776	183172	99953	288183	386896	340627	32523	30790	18303	20508	11129	10879	11020	13686	20	100	1230	170	190	30	180	4160	680	440	1150	250
Hg	5C1bi							2003	2041	1999	144220	2690	3150			683	2000	167	1	200	2000	4300	1000	45
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	6100500	5832910	5749829	3732732	4158474	3367273	3305405	3774032	2709862	3078794	3228236	2848871	3879522	3676296	3569574	2170109	2081262	3198923	3606375	1727902	1729745	1668536	1283038	1397470	1521735	1085998	1384129	1049530
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	6100500	5832910	5749829	3732732	4158474	3367273	3305405	3774032	2709862	3078794	3228236	2848871	3879522	3676296	3569574	2170109	2081262	3198923	3606375	1727902	1729745	1668536	1283038	1397470	1521735	1085998	1384129	1049530

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	1A2a	182	165	164	142	161	167	162	143	159	156	162	131	143	134	129	110	1481	3548	12889	2132	1115	133	34	28	30	274	201	220
DIOX	5E	6088	6115	6139	6169	6189	6208	6217	6237	6248	6261	6275	6290	6319	6351	6377	6410	6451	6498	6549	6602	6833	6720	7373	7556	5857	6499	6912	6946
HCB	2A1	8672400	8765750	9376430	9291320	9622780	9271950	8579370	9040050	9001430	8864320	9341600	8929870	8371980	7826170	7734410	8368340	8708740	8650670	8369240	7597110	7111150	6042740	6000880	2501920	2851140	936330	547890	29320980
HCB	5C1a	626739	635239	660933	653293	648983	566154	569737	554991	381697	359197	289013	284749	227805	251422	184998	93879	34000	34000	23330	72130	34460	26850	25200	386660	38500	41650	79330	38840
HCB	5C1biv	7149414	7149414	7149414	14467184	22740520	21339126	16875253	16192303	7067873	3381790	117906	113448	91837	77850	68007	52237
PCB	1A2b																									29370	95400	520000	5500
PCB	2A1	3260770	3204630	3312730	3250070	3401970	3360610	3157380	3279540	3242360	3168920	3395340	3202070	3064550	2905830	2865460	3064050	3175340	3168220	3074720	2716980	70799230	45376190	3751490	2674400	8060740	1301520	3312850	915690
PCB	2C1	98542790	83818140	74901790	70894570	75935520	82207780	70439920	75202300	88878950	80507840	87146200	89921170	92173440	88471120	83704900	67546700	78451000	61680470	62636860	10573680	23802180	11407020	4816380	1669820	2621360	1021190	1249360	1235540
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	107061773	92758137	83425348	79180034	82819291	88913775	77198816	81658633	94950055	86189288	92627493	95172418	97174755	93039959	87945567	72125800	83196763	66611943	67181820	14655640	95642608	57857438	9625192	5341422	11537017	3198586	5754421	2822120
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	107061773	92758137	83425348	79180034	82819291	88913775	77198816	81658633	94950055	86189288	92627493	95172418	97174755	93039959	87945567	72125800	83196763	66611943	67181820	14655640	95642608	57857438	9625192	5341422	11537017	3198586	5754421	2822120