Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BE Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
SOx	1B2c	247	0	60	85	88	247	225	258	2697	2012	2862	1494	1525	1655	1863	1566	1919	1826	1185	3042	2707	2091	1436	1791	1107	1628	1485
SOx	2B10a	17390	15727	13167	11194	9363	8977	8464	9133	9286	8041	7634	6844	7310	4680	4419	4975	4197	5503	4145	2308	3200	3329	2466	2454	2344	2463	2605
SOx	2C1	10628	10978	9441	8965	9294	8584	7668	6207	6280	6825	8058	6130	6645	6017	6618	6116	5454	5689	5714	3841	5007	5360	5807	6026	5421	4698	5609
SOx	2C7c	7269	6845	4478	4890	4647	3701	3894	2591	2727	3171	3609	3697	3297	3261	3698	2994	2547	3191	3104	1229	1928	2129	2416	2476	3032	2891	2732

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM10	1A3	11059	10646	9949	9626	9510	8910	8788	8626	7764	7245	7103	6556	6186	5832	5540	5321	5173
TSP	1A3	13011	12617	11939	11628	11541	10948	10856	10741	9829	9271	9150	8608	8234	7870	7601	7399	7275
BC	1A1c	280	253	198	91	94	93	91	68	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A1a	37554598	33360765	43553139	3409728	3257272	9523375	6854688	3366907	3070794	1205215	1503319	1263273	1077773	1085686	1284309	1301537	1176644	960650	1126967	1444158	999360	1076495	1012790	794561	807688	807964	925689
Pb	1A2a	1428364	1652972	1581124	1535559	1473070	1139172	1133349	1119422	1113866	993649	1064084	765610	1146591	665995	816414	808078	614984	827075	817655	800056	1266847	1229789	1132408	1033799	1016635	951398	961319
Pb	1A3	85315407	76178874	65885377	59461893	53021610	47537607	41954042	37376569	33532567	29557396	6146125	6043736	5944569	5913204	5851849	2607596	2655167	2688654	2591795	2556878	2597976	2607704	2621746	2779874	2868741	2870446	2918535
Pb	1A3bi	95789736	83794839	77284970	68198454	61181180	55716442	48263732	40526868	36179115	30843286	4549424	4453318	4270070	4331074	3998044	204992	211491	218334	228238	233902	232435	231792	226387	219144	222329	231028	230572
Pb	1A4bi	2466863	2861280	2605943	2529535	1695084	1669528	1908242	1608856	1396361	1293836	1036033	1118031	1003489	889861	824030	876802	963170	1025082	961665	1022877	1045299	816900	956425	1103595	799749	866089	971470
Pb	2A2	461310	433990	419220	419420	439760	447390	431550	430590	454050	463820	443330	425960	441160	418820	172450	115930	385260	441340	165650	106770	2346880	95040	69650	87680	101230	44360	88810
Pb	2A3	3202369	2730784	3151401	1611919	16677680	18375520	17828293	17539230	1530262	1262780	930160	1002740	1135720	1472890	1691570	1187000	837880	2351420	2118820	1468530	205980	196920	195810	182410	184360	152460	157740
Pb	2L				707		503	227865	80696	214110	2996	1217134	1154704	1121000	856254	457035	807029	2861943	2310220	1946553	1664413	1922000	820000	246000	131850	105000	94500	42000
Pb	5C1a	15828487	14971565	10025566	31713118	926928	7125167	505847	435399	173229	126180	28240	139113	200219	125801	153760	11840	160	7860	150	4310	610	770	1650	8780	1400	1280	2780
Cd	1A1a	1253852	1152310	1401381	351441	347563	418209	777686	277883	274484	104454	186219	100699	154463	162131	202032	126655	122634	142361	287801	160607	182059	183827	162171	135157	108985	127551	148570
Cd	1B2aiv							195		292	292	220096	227674	233563	233084	232583	41552	59229	36469	44875	37949	34580	23053	40756	39122	44899	44227	236157
Cd	2A3	35340	31879	32974	32892	338820	436810	467716	385110	51896	84660	26350	24320	29390	47560	55310	42230	29580	53260	42580	29060	15500	13620	7080	6760	6820	8710	4970
Cd	2A6				684	1000	4506					55692	61879	57269	57895	94982	99024	100031	101646	106654	91659	97553	59257	68528	66968	77502	70623	72645
Cd	2B10a	13800	13800	13800	13800	15800	13330	14130	7130	415100	5800	1160	1160	660	7450	7450	7450	3000	4500	7400	4410	5020	7640	6130	4700	2760	7140	4310
Cd	2C1	922920	851330	772910	685230	786130	792140	858187	945530	851906	841136	1135994	829463	828667	836250	1156180	678501	904435	767662	884381	301730	550127	426696	203922	192477	146514	475457	507818
Cd	2C7c	2283108	2293636	3108551	3592027	1730000	2358095	1186963	1945140	457805	580940	290068	386544	231438	247453	195053	258256	115090	109682	94292	50353	46457	55486	61694	53125	62332	92842	67503
Cd	5C1a	806526	780427	572909	95171	78881	271755	36167	32617	9925	10931	3640	5390	21404	6705	12170	2823	10	240	18680	3100	190	270	210	8400	940	710	2410
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	6227473	6021180	6770445	5595413	4105929	5103062	4182842	4335351	2830398	2342195	2770136	2477327	2341486	2444642	2860754	2124404	2316928	2116787	2413131	1537910	1959752	1667652	1465922	1466356	1244390	1623062	2767531
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	6220258	6016131	6763471	5587561	4097857	5095008	4174376	4327051	2822124	2335234	2762528	2468730	2332933	2434736	2849082	2115889	2307701	2106879	2400288	1524941	1947944	1656930	1457584	1459355	1236461	1612342	2756863
Hg	1A1a	2462155	2334412	2503321	1108728	1000675	1119263	955973	1099723	893617	439886	571724	506705	1349981	1295367	968452	189324	211246	261941	381420	245257	284051	381181	126326	170389	292686	182387	226766
Hg	1B2aiv							6		7		223644	232031	239311	239296	239819	29248	47380	24296	30459	24673	21323	12180	29380	29160	34717	34087	32306
Hg	2A1	326190	325280	335150	331460	343020	348870	326790	334390	333970	331440	310300	290860	367050	410710	563510	236980	228890	392680	441840	537710	227820	251290	248470	237800	286470	186500	367370
Hg	2B10a	981447	983008	1024553	1065395	1722030	584222	570792	892489	398047	498040	684855	498362	346135	306046	345300	271042	291753	216986	221201	224160	199160	213697	189343	304830	273422	153298	150462
Hg	2C1	281829	262503	231733	200082	284740	268610	223960	370090	407482	997950	571482	436915	743610	578417	603332	673120	600354	1601016	1867394	182069	390369	250256	150501	102246	193949	97210	118436
Hg	2C7c	28702	39047	59871	63232		11502	30310		142	22500	142327	142626	138859	159137	177166	111491	115901	109582	106968	39284	55092	56917	56751	53952	26665	30310	76702
Hg	5C1a	1071493	982105	757223	184894	99953	305283	404896	359627	52523	52390	16570	20508	11129	10879	11020	13686	20	100	1230	170	190	30	180	4160	680	440	1150
Hg	5C1bi							2003	2041	1999	144220	2690	3150			683	2000	167	1	200	2000	4300	1000	45
Hg	5C1bv	18333	20314	21255	20325	20430	21221	19834	20581	21038	21750	45663	47343	50789	27928	28290	28948	29180	29986	31776	31632	32921	34126	36580	38993	39107	42305	43009
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	5698923	5465632	5418261	3425818	3864413	3072122	3010582	3485780	2467616	2836065	2988504	2608008	3630552	3469181	3346730	1952142	1949138	3089764	3559749	1686784	1691332	1634977	1253589	1377219	1507208	1072278	1373686
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	5698923	5465632	5418261	3425818	3864413	3072122	3010582	3485780	2467616	2836065	2988504	2608008	3630552	3469181	3346730	1952142	1949138	3089764	3559749	1686784	1691332	1634977	1253589	1377219	1507208	1072278	1373686

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A2a	182	165	164	142	161	167	162	143	159	156	162	131	143	134	129	110	1481	3548	12889	2132	1115	133	34	28	30	274	201
DIOX	5C2	21006	21006	21006	21006	21006	21006	21456	21906	22355	22805	23255	22109	20962	19802	18671	17521	16371	15239	14087	12935	11785	9428	7071	4714	2357	35	18
HCB	5C1a	626739	635239	660933	653293	648983	566154	569737	554991	381697	359197	289013	284749	227805	251422	184998	93879	34000	34000	23330	72130	34460	26850	25200	386660	38500	41650	79330
HCB	5C1biv	7149414	7149414	7149414	14467184	22740520	21339126	16875253	16192303	7067873	3381790	117906	113448	91837	77850	64709	49374
PCB	2A1	3260770	3204630	3312730	3250070	3401970	3360610	3157380	3279540	3242360	3168920	3395340	3202070	3064550	2905830	2865460	3064050	3175340	3168220	3074720	2716980	70799230	45376190	3751490	2674400	8060740	1301520	3312850
PCB	2C1	98542790	83818140	74901790	70894570	75935520	82207780	70439920	75202300	88878950	80507840	87146200	89921170	92173440	88471120	83704900	67546700	78451000	61680470	62636860	10573680	23802180	11407020	4816380	1669820	2621360	1021190	1249360
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	107060223	92756593	83423803	79178490	82817741	88912226	77197273	81657084	94948505	86187739	92625943	95170893	97074126	92962746	87894294	72032902	83083819	66483270	67122687	14615264	95560780	57793596	9559827	5237883	11473580	3101649	5905951
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	107060223	92756593	83423803	79178490	82817741	88912226	77197273	81657084	94948505	86187739	92625943	95170893	97074126	92962746	87894294	72032902	83083819	66483270	67122687	14615264	95560780	57793596	9559827	5237883	11473580	3101649	5905951