Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

Trend graphs

Add Comments

---

TIME SERIES

Party: BE      Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A2c	5958	6777	6531	6461	6283	7939	5909	5544	6320	5989	5595	6062	5090	4333	4343	4927	4866	4549	3956	3705	3819	3909	3432	3247	6271	6299
NMVOC	1A3	78741	73193	66217	61466	56838	52906	48686	43899	39747	35765	30526	27709	24614	23062	20776	19209	17428	15300	13248	12033	11237	10238	9374	8532	8165	8185
NMVOC	1A3bi	65008	60098	56814	51929	46897	43755	40674	33329	30107	25433	20198	17842	14849	13522	11495	9385	7876	6701	5868	5201	4709	3883	3632	3391	3117	3404
NMVOC	1A3bv	17876	14537	14085	12105	12236	11708	9216	9195	7904	7496	6441	6093	5356	5656	4436	4039	3950	3448	3101	3202	2840	3071	2623	2332	2616	2700
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	318045	306783	295722	288644	273259	266608	258439	249486	243251	230174	212813	211483	198189	189547	180682	175748	172844	162054	155427	143985	115295	132391	130276	127859	120556	118579
SOx	1A1c	6665	6467	5644	7556	6869	6822	7132	4615	2326	2288	2265	2420	2298	2228	2509	4941	2850	2063	1107	2001	1461	848	1071	675	282	156
SOx	1A3di(i)	13156	12927	12478	12023	12190	12052	12056	13010	13035	13342	12120	12956	13295	12569	11905	12309	12113	10691	8268	7158	3847	3146	2449	1755	1165	568
SOx	1B2c	247	0	60	85	88	247	225	258	2697	2012	2862	1494	1525	1655	1863	1566	1919	1826	1185	3042	2707	2091	1436	1791	1107	1628
SOx	2B10a	17390	15727	13167	11194	9363	8977	8464	9133	9286	8043	7634	6844	7310	4680	4419	4975	4197	5503	4145	2308	3200	3329	2466	2454	2344	2463
SOx	2C1	10628	10978	9441	8965	9294	8584	7668	6207	6280	6825	8058	6130	6645	6017	6618	6256	5454	5689	5714	3841	5007	5360	5807	6026	5421	4698
SOx	2C7c	7269	6845	4478	4890	4647	3701	3894	2591	2727	3171	3609	3697	3297	3261	3698	2994	2547	3191	3104	1229	1928	2129	2416	2476	3032	2891
NH3	1A3bi	677	1112	1579	1785	2049	2223	2319	2293	2351	2953	2658	2537	2354	2307	2052	1852	1649	1490	1317	1203	1048	945	842	769	758	782
NH3	3B3	17724	17182	17677	18426	18319	18929	18898	19065	19670	19963	16448	15806	15450	15082	14642	14438	14452	14084	14191	13718	13970	13473	14271	13698	13341	13387
CO	1A3	541162	513404	458626	429992	389320	360887	343361	299352	276911	246788	207622	190004	170144	158627	146158	133991	119996	108074	95218	85735	81527	71855	68361	65076	59888	58787
CO	1A3bi	578542	534727	503567	460243	415884	389145	365543	299042	274678	235622	189500	171409	145310	136054	116885	96605	82036	70999	63096	56677	51439	43156	40539	38447	35462	37103
CO	1A3biv	10121	13249	17578	20660	24998	29356	29380	28318	29220	27476	23797	24072	23794	23932	22678	19547	18890	18418	16457	15041	13579	12542	11375	10708	10325	9725
CO	1A4bii	13808	13380	12966	12636	12391	12186	12109	12002	12066	12169	12193	12222	12275	12332	12429	12518	12581	12635	12675	12701	12708	12764	12840	12872	13121	13029
CO	2A2	19682	13695	12113	12431	14051	12282	10660	12373	12717	14884	34106	33651	39298	36685	17462	36581	33605	17195	25605	19208	36796	26753	1516	170365	2667	31547

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	1A1a	1252	747	1048	726	824	601	469	684	610	410	223	447	341	393	289	342
PM10	1A1a	2522	1586	2180	1740	1773	1189	924	958	789	573	290	519	396	450	322	405
TSP	1A3	13255	12841	12125	11810	11715	11115	11022	10912	10011	9432	9300	8758	8379	8022	7776	7573
BC	1A1c	280	253	198	91	94	93	91	68	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A1a	37554598	33360765	43553139	3409728	3257272	9523375	6854688	3373907	3070794	1219215	1503319	1263273	1077773	1085686	1284309	1301537	1176644	960650	1126967	1432068	999205	1076504	1011214	794561	806764	807806
Pb	1A2a	1428364	1652972	1581124	1535559	1473070	1139172	1133349	1119422	1113866	993649	1064084	765610	1146591	665995	816414	808078	614984	827075	817655	800056	1266847	1229789	1132408	1033799	1016635	951330
Pb	1A2f	3401309	2895814	3294066	1707682	16775480	18466905	17934143	17601280	1621411	1342250	993783	1073394	1212300	1670151	1924039	1450535	1074351	2612185	2365682	1751492	445616	439910	402379	396135	387298	345157
Pb	1A3	85429845	76257195	66076615	59690846	53251353	47763851	42175974	37549462	33732810	29737686	6189538	6089772	5989034	5951104	5885966	2626629	2673824	2706452	2606673	2571662	2613009	2621983	2635158	2797506	2896108	2896602
Pb	1A3bi	95783354	83792604	77305032	68228528	61215386	55750844	48296446	40556106	36202583	30861784	4548155	4452138	4269021	4330232	3997316	205031	211535	218411	228416	233922	232440	231771	226377	216766	219481	213680
Pb	1A4bi	2723055	3168407	2898256	2828921	1826834	1810658	2080586	1751930	1540994	1432241	1115439	1197304	1105746	960906	875012	948062	1060534	1146308	1019009	1054302	1097806	867054	1013994	1170899	862370	892467
Pb	2A2	461310	433990	419220	419420	439760	447390	431550	430590	454050	463820	443330	425960	441160	418820	172450	115930	385260	441340	165650	106770	2346880	95040	69650	87680	101230	44360
Pb	2L		5		707		503	227865	80696	214110	2996	1217134	1154704	1121000	856254	457035	807029	2861943	2310220	1946553	1664413	1922000	820000	246000	131850	105000	94500
Pb	5C1a	15828487	14971565	10025566	31713118	926928	7125167	505847	435399	173229	126180	253906	142813	203569	127531	155660	17942	3462	11035	1570	5889	2190	1901	2011	10353	3338	2111
Cd	1A1a	1253852	1152310	1401381	351441	347563	418209	777686	278883	274484	111954	186219	100699	154463	162131	202032	126655	122634	142361	287801	159577	181497	183830	161545	135157	108617	127047
Cd	1A2f	43270	37979	39154	38022	344890	442380	485306	393000	62930	89890	29669	28289	33009	56609	62192	49916	37135	60759	49519	37399	21177	19474	12606	13446	12417	15036
Cd	1B1b	377122	338678	299210	270305	256100	256640	256470	229700	199230	192010	193590	196530	164530	164550	175670	170710	173870	153410	91190	58700	90340	85210	70810	49730	18300
Cd	1B2aiv							195		292	292	220096	227674	233563	233084	232583	41552	59229	36469	44875	37949	34580	23053	40756	39122	44899	44227
Cd	2A6				684	1000	4506					47743	52952	49808	52095	90956	94890	95835	97755	98003	83288	88009	48000	58667	57515	66999	62631
Cd	2B10a	13800	13800	13800	13800	15800	13330	14130	7130	415100	5800	1160	1160	660	7450	7450	7450	3000	4500	7400	4410	5020	7640	6130	4700	2760	7140
Cd	2C1	922920	851330	772910	685230	786130	792140	858187	945530	851906	841136	1164798	858226	857810	865013	1185162	707289	933365	796844	913235	325609	574006	455399	232942	221180	175588	503403
Cd	2C7c	2283108	2293636	3108551	3592027	1730000	2358095	1186963	1945140	457805	580940	330451	434277	277071	293086	244215	306913	161647	159914	136649	97960	94894	106454	105668	104063	114796	149482
Cd	5C1a	806526	780427	572909	95171	78881	271755	36167	32617	9925	10931	7506	5610	21458	8435	14070	4425	1006	1440	19461	4083	1083	856	638	9130	1410	1268
Hg	1A1a	2462154	2334411	2503320	1108726	1000673	1119262	955971	1101721	893614	446884	571722	506703	1349979	1295365	968450	189322	211244	261939	381418	244365	284195	381398	126248	170386	292652	182412
Hg	1B2aiv							6		7		223644	232031	239311	239296	239819	29248	47380	24296	30459	24673	21323	12180	29380	29160	34717	34087
Hg	2A1	326190	325280	335150	331460	343020	348870	326790	334390	333970	331440	310300	290860	367050	410710	563510	236980	228890	392680	441840	537710	227820	251290	248470	237800	286470	186500
Hg	2B10a	981447	983008	1024553	1065395	1722030	584222	570792	892489	398047	498040	684855	498362	346135	306046	345300	271042	291753	216986	221201	224160	199160	213697	189343	304830	273422	178960
Hg	2C1	281829	262503	231733	200082	284740	268610	223960	370090	407482	997950	581501	446919	753746	588422	613413	683133	610416	1611166	1877430	190374	398674	260239	160595	112229	204061	106931
Hg	2C7c	28702	39047	59871	63232		11502	30310		142	22500	142489	142784	138996	159290	177331	111673	116078	109745	107113	39428	55235	57063	56896	54097	26810	30456
Hg	5C1a	1071493	982105	757223	184894	99953	305283	404896	359627	52523	52390	18487	21308	11289	13909	11970	15030	591	1046	3492	1122	1522	2806	924	4894	4222	1139
Hg	5C1bi							2003	2041	1999	144220	2690	3150			683	2000	167	1	200	2000	4300	1000	45
Hg	5C1bv	18333	20314	21255	20325	20430	21221	19834	20581	21038	21750	45663	47343	50789	27928	28290	28948	29180	29986	31776	31632	32921	34126	36580	38948	38970	42126
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	5680653	5445146	5397643	3404081	3842603	3049028	2984566	3464460	2443633	2819869	2977552	2593704	3614113	3453942	3328345	1934957	1932677	3076078	3545641	1668021	1670558	1621343	1237570	1358420	1498974	1082733
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	5680653	5445146	5397643	3404081	3842603	3049028	2984566	3464460	2443633	2819869	2977552	2593704	3614113	3453942	3328345	1934957	1932677	3076078	3545641	1668021	1670558	1621343	1237570	1358420	1498974	1082733

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A2a	182	165	164	142	161	167	162	143	159	156	162	131	143	134	129	110	1481	3548	12889	2132	1115	133	34	28	30	274
DIOX	1A3	5042	5323	5456	5331	5498	5485	5549	5550	5798	5815	5937	5846	5807	5738	5814	5788	6234	6405	6199	5818	5376	4830	4748	3791	3116	2808
HCB	2A1	8672400	8765750	9376430	9291320	9622780	9271950	8579370	9040050	9001430	8864320	9341600	8929870	8371980	7826170	7734410	8368340	8708740	8650670	8369240	7597110	7111150	6042740	6000880	2501920	2851140	936330
HCB	5C1a	626739	635239	660933	653293	648983	566154	569737	554991	381697	359197	289013	284749	227805	251422	184998	93879	34000	34000	23330	72130	34460	26850	25200	386660	38500	41650
HCB	5C1biv	7149414	7149414	7149414	14467184	22740520	21339126	16875253	16192303	7067873	3381790	117906	113448	91837	77850	64709	49374
PCB	1A4bi	1771529	2017496	1711316	1571588	1210881	1124888	1226265	1052694	765125	673146	733565	813408	566810	449519	397828	370542	314260	279034	399983	588435	297991	264678	277115	332757	229353	228824
PCB	2A1	3260770	3204630	3312730	3250070	3401970	3360610	3157380	3279540	3242360	3168920	3395340	3202070	3064550	2905830	2865460	3064050	3175340	3168220	3074720	2716980	70799230	45376190	3751490	2674400	8060740	1301520
PCB	2C1	98542790	83818140	74901790	70894570	75935520	82207780	70439920	75202300	88878950	80507840	87146200	89921170	92173440	88471120	83704900	67546700	78451000	61680470	62636860	10573680	23312180	11315020	4586380	1439820	2621360	1021190
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	105219491	90639869	81437115	77196387	81855585	87945201	76044558	80681468	94016756	85324011	92055770	94604756	96336222	92406958	87456206	71477265	82394873	65589691	66536679	14272895	95169890	57457630	9184387	4814243	11107456	2808938
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	105219491	90639869	81437115	77196387	81855585	87945201	76044558	80681468	94016756	85324011	92055770	94604756	96336222	92406958	87456206	71477265	82394873	65589691	66536679	14272895	95169890	57457630	9184387	4814243	11107456	2808938