Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

Trend graphs

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TIME SERIES

Party: BE      Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	318116	305564	294502	287454	272153	265584	258730	248120	241888	228758	212567	208964	195824	187289	178454	175669	170836	162363	155774	144312	115995	133070	131223	129083	121162
SOx	1B2c	247	0	60	85	88	247	225	258	2697	2012	2862	1494	1525	1655	1863	1566	1919	1826	1185	3042	2707	2091	1436	1791	1107
SOx	2B10a	17390	15727	13167	11194	9363	8977	8464	9133	9286	8043	7634	6844	7310	4680	4417	4974	4197	5503	4184	2309	3200	3329	2466	2454	2344
SOx	2C1	10628	10978	9441	8965	9294	8584	7668	6207	6280	6825	8058	6130	6645	6017	6618	6256	5454	5689	5714	3841	5007	5360	5807	6026	5421
NH3	1A3bi	677	1112	1579	1785	2049	2223	2319	2293	2351	2953	2658	2537	2354	2307	2052	1823	1460	1325	1328	1230	1051	978	838	768	769
NH3	3B1a	11851	9193	8855	8200	8065	8037	7822	7598	7661	7541	7323	7204	7019	6794	6126	5893	5768	5817	5625	5639	5579	5508	5465	5520	5527
CO	1A3biv	10121	13249	17578	20660	24998	29356	29380	28317	29220	27476	23797	24072	23794	23931	22678	19212	16552	16241	16601	15398	13570	13084	11414	10769	10530
CO	1A4bii	13822	13393	12978	12649	12403	12197	12120	12013	12078	12180	12200	12231	12285	12341	12438	12527	12590	12644	12685	12710	12717	12773	12849	12881	12956
CO	2A2	19682	13695	12113	12431	14051	12282	10660	12373	12717	14884	34106	33651	39298	36685	17462	36581	33605	17195	25605	19208	36796	26753	1516	170365	2667

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
PM2.5	1A1a	1250	744	1046	724	823	599	468	683	609	409	222	445	340	392	320
PM10	1A1a	2519	1583	2177	1737	1771	1186	922	956	787	572	288	517	395	449	354
TSP	1A3	13520	13111	12379	12050	11939	11331	11240	11124	10220	9645	9496	8959	8564	8269	8012
BC	1A1c	280	253	198	91	94	93	91	68	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pb	1A1a	37632276	33388448	43437848	3394705	3220259	9455867	6787796	5878892	2983941	1104899	1462383	1230155	1023076	1021838	1238720	1240095	1136842	922696	1088851	1399729	967480	1047314	1004323	769687	754141
Pb	1A2a	971364	1201972	1137124	1097559	1042070	714472	698349	679422	656866	553149	1064084	765610	1146591	665995	816414	808086	614992	827083	817655	800056	1266847	1229789	1132680	1033900	1016462
Pb	1A2f	3381309	2871814	3266066	1675682	16739480	18427875	17907563	17596960	1575061	1313630	994193	1073874	1212750	1670581	1924373	1450514	1074220	2611954	2365602	1751362	445546	439069	401220	395340	383133
Pb	1A3	85391185	76218535	66037955	59652186	53212693	47725191	42137314	37549462	33694150	29695966	6152758	6057492	5967544	5926914	5827916	2590559	2620994	2668312	2585113	2556959	2587292	2595180	2606772	2630298	2652997
Pb	1A3bi	95782694	83792035	77304542	68228089	61214994	55750488	48296127	40555818	36202325	30861552	4548143	4452116	4268999	4330210	3997294	203509	199843	202187	231312	238144	239602	240391	224593	219151	223916
Pb	1A4bi	2723055	3168407	2898256	2828921	1826834	1810658	2080586	1751930	1540994	1432241	1196809	1288594	1168196	1009196	916872	1001532	1103814	1179838	1068369	1133172	1131816	897464	1044794	1206539	899977
Pb	2A2	461310	433990	419220	419420	439760	447390	431550	430590	454050	463820	443330	425960	441160	418820	172450	115930	385260	441340	165650	106770	2346880	95040	69650	87680	101230
Pb	2L		5		707		503	227865	80696	214110	2996	1217134	1154704	1121000	479254	457035	807029	2861943	2310220	1946553	1664413	1922000	820000	246000	132000	105000
Pb	5C1a	15828487	14971565	10025566	31713118	926928	7125167	505847	435399	173229	126180	290972	172146	254877	189592	199240	72649	23898	24748	7251	19628	8276	8762	5650	17780	7868
Cd	1A1a	1252817	1151275	1397290	347942	345559	415884	775610	279876	268161	104649	174360	99147	146435	148565	181005	111604	109450	117980	266835	131957	159607	167522	147493	116447	98947
Cd	1A2a	47600	48390	49140	45630	51840	48560	47420	40190	47800	41500	45706	43092	38399	32063	36436	35560	66949	31219	88339	54300	74418	53816	30486	33929	23212
Cd	1A2f	41270	35979	36154	35022	340890	438900	482776	392770	58660	87650	30139	28839	33519	57089	62614	49896	36985	60509	49429	37259	21097	18524	11510	12370	10832
Cd	1B1b	377122	338678	299210	270305	256100	256640	256470	229700	199230	192010	193590	196530	164530	164550	175670	170710	173870	153410	91190	58700	90340	85210	70810	49730	18300
Cd	1B2aiv							195		292	292	220096	227674	233563	233084	232583	41552	59229	36469	44875	37949	34580	23053	41014	39006	44909
Cd	2A6				684	1000	4506					47743	52952	49808	52095	90956	94890	95835	97755	98003	82890	88009	48000	59000	59000	66999
Cd	2B10a	13800	13800	13800	13800	13800	13330	14130	7130	415100	5800	1160	1160	660	7450	7450	7450	3000	4500	7400	4410	5020	7640	6130	4700	2760
Cd	2C1	922920	851330	772910	685230	786130	792140	858187	945530	851906	841136	1164798	921774	921807	958925	1296564	812800	1047476	893797	1010036	325609	574006	455399	233090	221230	175588
Cd	2C7c	2283108	2293636	3108551	3592027	1730000	2256475	1106934	1864140	317458	387200	387352	491178	333972	349987	324238	386406	241992	243047	221335	449611	629743	697064	695400	807290	866891
Cd	5C1a	806526	780427	572909	95171	78881	271755	36167	32617	9925	10931	18941	6704	29118	19827	32826	18027	4173	11600	23641	9713	6059	5729	4210	14400	5639
Hg	1A1a	2502196	2365460	2536627	1150164	985666	1111743	944542	1087716	852730	444177	542630	489716	1322528	1254293	908544	183147	196265	245576	315471	224236	242894	250769	103088	145885	120323
Hg	1B2aiv							6		7		223644	232031	239311	239296	239819	29248	47380	24296	30459	24673	21323	12180	29040	29034	34718
Hg	2A1	326190	325280	335150	331460	343020	348870	326790	334390	333970	331440	310300	290860	367050	410710	563510	236980	228890	392680	441840	537710	227820	251290	248470	237800	286470
Hg	2B10a	981447	983008	1024553	1065395	1722030	584222	570792	892489	398047	498040	684855	498362	346135	306046	345300	271042	291753	216986	221201	224160	199160	213697	190030	305090	273422
Hg	2C1	281829	262503	231733	200082	284740	268610	223960	332590	407482	997950	639502	493404	813501	642386	679549	737423	663178	1661082	1925657	223462	431762	308601	206560	160270	249679
Hg	2C7c	28693	39022	59849	63210		11478	30284		124	22500	142212	142507	138719	159013	176942	111283	115687	110520	107729	39766	55988	57950	57400	54300	28086
Hg	5C1a	1071493	982105	757223	184894	99953	288183	386896	340627	32523	30790	47391	37468	38567	51931	70890	19351	9981	11441	23172	8293	6472	11155	3180	8160	12818
Hg	5C1bi							2003	2041	1999	144220	2690	3150			683	2000	5167	5001	44200	14000	39300	120476	17000	19000	160300
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	5670583	5427142	5381881	3397514	3779662	2978282	2915250	3330936	2343235	2767925	3033601	2637567	3671929	3503123	3391378	1985455	1982945	3127633	3592350	1699146	1702548	1666007	1278746	1403131	1543312
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	5670583	5427142	5381881	3397514	3779662	2978282	2915250	3330936	2343235	2767925	3033601	2637567	3671929	3503123	3391378	1985455	1982945	3127633	3592350	1699146	1702548	1666007	1278746	1403131	1543312

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
DIOX	1A2a	182	165	164	142	161	167	162	143	159	156	162	131	143	134	129	110	1481	3548	12889	2132	1115	133	34	28	30
DIOX	1A3	5042	5323	5456	5331	5498	5485	5549	5550	5798	5815	5937	5846	5807	5738	5814	5788	6234	6405	6199	5818	5376	4830	4748	3841	3517
DIOX	1A3bi	2742	2807	2972	3083	3236	3306	3404	3475	3575	3609	3631	3704	3726	3770	3949	3752	3763	3840	4418	4440	4169	3588	2945	2524	2307
HCB	1A1a	13777319	13802238	13768911	29569194	62261714	120813150	118008019	127139738	122385403	150017869	2581718	2588801	2684686	2679411	3078441	3354825	3306030	4164972	5821186	5517358	3973491	4328045	4220364	3855431	4236237
HCB	1A2gviii	29456668	27208056	24116245	22705905	26388035	26388047	27001757	25161767	25165257	25166587	28847111	4731	4081	4191	3930	5040	4880	5020	5650	5110	6050	6080	5080	4940	4610
HCB	2A1	8672400	8765750	9376430	9291320	9622780	9271950	8579370	9040050	9001430	8864320	9341600	8929870	8371980	7826170	7734410	8368340	8708740	8650670	8369240	7597110	7111150	6042740	6000880	2501920	2851140
HCB	5C1a	626739	635239	660933	653293	648983	566154	569737	554991	381697	359197	289013	284749	227805	251422	184998	93879	34000	34000	23330	72130	34460	26850	25200	386660	38500
HCB	5C1biv	7149414	7149414	7149414	16524482	30280320	34060855	33616041	42893518	27936257	26317435	117906	113448	91837	77850	64709	49374
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	70291978	67255744	63476245	87085928	136216364	199282144	195192937	213124257	193166611	219252972	50524217	21365277	21576862	20753430	20706818	20005112	20924678	21283816	21772052	14986329	14485996	29830813	19571261	8647744	8973179
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	70291978	67255744	63476245	87085928	136216364	199282144	195192937	213124257	193166611	219252972	50524217	21365277	21576862	20753430	20706818	20005112	20924678	21283816	21772052	14986329	14485996	29830813	19571261	8647744	8973179
PCB	1A4bi	1771529	2017496	1711316	1571588	1210881	1124888	1226265	1052694	765125	673146	711275	788878	547920	424249	367408	339622	273960	241304	350813	529435	244671	226998	230085	266667	204773
PCB	2A1	3260770	3204630	3312730	3250070	3401970	3360610	3157380	3279540	3242360	3168920	3395340	3202070	3064550	2905830	2865460	3064050	3175340	3168220	3074720	2716980	70799230	45376190	3751490	2674400	8060740
PCB	2C1	98542790	83818140	74901790	70894570	75935520	82207780	70439920	75202300	88878950	80507840	87146200	89921170	92173440	88471120	83704900	67546700	78451000	61680470	62636860	10573680	23312180	11315020	4586380	1439820	2621360
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	105185331	90476819	81214825	76971777	81824975	87914601	76013218	80652588	93987656	85294831	91999940	94580226	96317332	92381688	87425766	71446345	82354573	65551961	66487509	14213895	95116570	57419950	9137357	4747913	11035506
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	105185331	90476819	81214825	76971777	81824975	87914601	76013218	80652588	93987656	85294831	91999940	94580226	96317332	92381688	87425766	71446345	82354573	65551961	66487509	14213895	95116570	57419950	9137357	4747913	11035506