Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BE Submission year: 2015

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2013
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2013
PMs: 2000 - 2013

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
NOx	1A3	186330	169254	161371	156415	153128	161211	143815	140427	140605	140548	152154	136415	134746	132031	131416	144026	128200	124635	110915	104283	116610	111243	105611	101229
SOx	1A1c	2410	11778	10699	7740	7760	1599	7132	4756	2326	2346	1	2420	2362	2290	2577	1	2908	2123	1107	2001
SOx	1A2e	16031	9238	12444	12714	12864	10848	6582	5968	5257	6528	5482	3642	7068	5455	4914	3705	3081	2854	1433	710	1284	1264	1132	1026
SOx	1B1b	9524	426	391	380	411	5952	407	401	391	394	2636	363	334	359	372	5177	362	274	19	10	1484	875	1090	686
SOx	1B2aiv	1	46	7	82	72	9	153	164	407	342	49	129	125	135	140	40	128	124	10572	13041	2	2	3	2
SOx	2A1	4334	4365	4466	4499	4600	4686	4335	4868	4483	4480	4946	4435	5314	5669	4783	5237	4892	6253	4501	4448	4725	4688	3928	3199
SOx	2B10a	22353	17763	14353	11984	17668	11328	9298	12715	9478	9954	9807	7801	9037	6202	6076	8030	5763	7094	4893	2226	4211	4471	3770	3710
NH3	1A3bi	678	987	1300	1490	1665	2223	1820	1859	1870	2363	2666	2049	1938	1847	1701	1824	1455	1292	1138	1040	1051	978	838	773
CO	1A4bii	13678	13303	12893	12577	12324	12124	12037	11935	12001	12107	12121	12154	12200	12260	12359	12441	12502	12548	12595	12622	12641	12702	12801	12885
CO	2A2	19682	13641	12113	12410	14002	12282	10608	12320	12660	14827	34106	33590	39227	36608	17383	36581	33605	17195	25605	19208	36796	26753	1516	170365

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
PM2.5	1A3bi	4414	3930	3425	3212	3104	2907	2615	2570	2266	2111	2315	1885	1583	1399
PM10	1A3bi	4414	3930	3425	3212	3104	2907	2615	2570	2266	2111	2315	1885	1583	1399
TSP	1A3bi	4414	3930	3425	3212	3104	2907	2615	2570	2266	2111	2315	1885	1583	1399
TSP	3B3	2416	2146	2117	2072	2034	2153	2041	2065	2089	2118	2214	2180	2194	2145

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Pb	1A1a	4219353	31966026	41994456	1956632	1886749	3244295	5462504	4577666	1734143	1205107	1467665	1244294	1082517	1079847	1178505	1297660	1166293	871210	965915	1288307	889578	1081128	1016458	785294
Pb	1A2a	1428361	1625878	1519167	1472393	1364930	1139172	9346363	11816380	5791865	8358290	1064084	666273	1074125	594906	753254	807810	589447	792932	783939	804209	1266847	1229789	1132408	1034726
Pb	1A2b	424758	11650722	17498692	6347379	5044860	45794	7182916	9301050	4122230	6419310	93612	98981	129538	108475	108348	96000	122363	125432	116989	116435	108927	121754	101176	112224
Pb	1A2f	3417115					18485492					1111024					1662923					732469	597610	526873	457634
Pb	1A2gviii	232190	4920025	6487758	2618788	1971113	121896	24411350	30481747	3640553	4457013	128708	1226343	1322791	1836669	2098217	147660	1122518	2752749	2502637	1860666	282834	198277	159781	164193
Pb	1A3bi	95819338	72671640	62343999	55667814	48981052	55768758	37451794	32654614	28495078	24234301	4551829	3557552	3415853	3332114	3160974	201621	188697	193899	195190	199205	238558	239408	224168	222107
Pb	1A4bi	2723055	3532178	3305888	3232182	2352595	1810658	2776358	2341826	2150631	2019667	1198284	2226528	1889126	1915687	1984194	1001534	1941780	1851126	1919490	2032913	1131829	897450	1044780	1192510
Pb	1B2aiv	9					229	10437	13540	12169	18970	1073718	1112009	1141402	1140553	1141642	1099767	1104024	1098670	1111828	1098935	1096644	1086246	1091129	1086809
Pb	2A2	461310	433990	419220	419420	439760	447390	431560	430590	454050	463820	443330	425960	441160	418820	172450	115930	385260	441350	165650	106770	2346880	95040	69650	87680
Pb	2C7c	29460119	12847460	17670549	34661081	15481130	33170017	19529304	25786010	11860706	18219770	10882833	10348522	10664107	9197785	9194917	9844446	4945289	5337397	3526905	3272624	2659079	2716338	2230569	2154298
Pb	2L	5					96526					1217134	1154704	1121000	479254	457035	807029	2087943	2169220	1914553	1664413	1922000	820000	246000	131850
Pb	5C1a	679988	15036113	10091696	31713646	14711676	1190908	235375	1977512	168863	210789	28240	84100	40770	24770	25460	160	160	7860	150	4310	610	770	1650	8780
Pb	5C1bi	48546442			224866	93070	12167294	272770	272730	12130	24751	228596	57000	159400	111210	149920	13000	20		2000	1000	5100	1900	45
Cd	1A1a	382221	1024855	1246938	203462	204029	304950	638649	154417	147194	117112	173480	126907	184051	196669	235802	146158	149737	156325	290521	158702	197964	210931	180034	148030
Cd	1A2b	2150	1794630	2738974	18556	84150	1550	81572	91610	137094	177540	2628	5937	5858	5878	5941	2778	6056	3175	5077	4766	2167	2310	2216	2194
Cd	1A2d	6870	39100	21440	18300	46850	6660	42850	36670	45110	41300	10210	11125	11718	9841	9989	12825	22450	12097	11196	10972	51436	68624	78161	77804
Cd	1A2f	43270					447306					77882					144786					110985	66504	59002	67972
Cd	1A2gviii	18152	104907	97402	89257	76726	11694	533627	493192	141495	179799	36131	66612	64038	90019	95269	60468	60974	90721	80827	65802	78383	67135	63985	67350
Cd	1A4bi	152109	431323	442814	437541	464838	179486	570049	483652	480436	460802	158324	403279	467545	505543	511116	214543	508228	481371	538719	548771	349958	248207	303064	335510
Cd	1B1b	377122	391342	340970	273533	256100	256640	256470	229700	199230	192010	193590	196530	164530	163660	175670	170710	173870	153410	91190	58700	117340	114650	100810	79730
Cd	1B2aiv							195	220	393	510	220055	227633	233519	233042	232543	224271	226043	223767	226813	224832	224443	220687	223007	221355
Cd	2A6							202	230				52952	49808	52095	90956		95835	97755	98003	83288
Cd	2B10a	125211	147587	15055	13800	13800	13330	14130	7130	415100	5800	1160	1160	660	7450	7450	7450	3000	4500	7400	4410	5020	7640	6130	4700
Cd	2C1	922920	851340	772910	685240	786150	792140	817985	886420	823098	775180	1164798	921254	921287	957405	1296044	812800	1050956	899267	1036126	352539	574006	455399	232942	221180
Cd	2C7c	2171697	362654	370432	3564275	1941880	2358095	1087356	1237390	277210	356600	387352	489478	342570	355749	329585	386406	251119	251898	235369	461541	631077	697250	691144	808526
Cd	5C1a	53421	780550	573397	94762	92084	89821	24804	580232	11224	8035	3640	3940	13900	4230	8510	20	10	240	18680	3100	190	270	210	8400
Cd	5C1bi	1624732					295188	12000	12000	30	30	3833	1400	7500	3520	6310	3431			1000	1000	1000	900	45
Hg	1A1a	1322697	2167522	2329587	935129	939561	896991	918492	934916	702315	472560	562075	508496	1351852	1292272	972149	191159	122896	124241	234822	128649	279682	385540	124427	171580
Hg	1A2b	1350	39919	60731	64171	154080	1026	31274	49040	1118	650	6546	7269	8951	7981	7963	6570	8696	7822	8153	8102	7289	8028	6962	7421
Hg	1A2gviii	15231	69144	71799	64959	69402	9821	118531	147418	75220	81747	16349	73434	68321	76328	72129	13138	48708	53664	49359	45761	21074	15995	12263	12783
Hg	1A4ai	11606	50096	50245	52061	71335	21470	63725	75032	84766	48105	28147	61277	58266	57980	55130	16751	46662	43976	48435	46186	17132	13335	20592	18075
Hg	1A4bi	133090	375600	356457	348297	299783	100238	365235	309458	295648	280049	75496	322239	306449	306648	298373	65715	270568	247603	261670	263152	65373	53817	58294	124088
Hg	1B2aiv							6	10	24	90	222503	230916	238583	238511	239008	231798	232011	231713	232126	231904	231900	231439	231760	231554
Hg	2A1	326190	325280	335150	331460	343020	348870	326790	334390	333970	331440	310300	290860	367050	410710	563510	236980	228890	392680	441840	537710	227820	251290	248470	237800
Hg	2B10a	981445	982513	1024024	264890	1342510	584273	570137	799770	397152	934130	684855	476024	321870	267502	345300	271042	291753	216986	221201	224160	199160	213697	189343	304830
Hg	2C1	281828	262480	231720	200050	284740	268610	223960	332590	407492	510290	639502	493374	813471	641356	679519	737423	664528	1663262	1942357	240432	431762	308601	206219	160591
Hg	2C7c	28784					11537					141952	142507	138719	159013	176942	111283	115687	110520	107729	39766	55991	57950	57787	54685
Hg	5C1a	73373	980972	754487	182963	313714	273923	276359	209984	36808	81968	16570	4540	5980	7730	1900	20	20	100	1230	170	190	30	180	4160
Hg	5C1bi	2137574					229183	176355	174540	163	145439	4423	18900	5100	9670	10340	16000	200			2000	4300	1000	45
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	5679032	5547231	5487664	2693837	4067267	3047843	3315641	3587318	2553156	3099690	3035269	2922692	3975749	3754837	3691792	2191422	2321439	3401545	3882826	2022658	1910227	1889463	1487666	1656781

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
DIOX	1A2a	182	121	121	111	121	167	120	110	120	119	162	119	159	140	130	110	1480	3550	12888	2139	1115	133	34	29
DIOX	5C1bi	7892	68454	58416	48377	51659	8291	28062	22803	12533	7274	1706	1675	1355	1045	735	39	294	407	636	281		131	82	85
DIOX	5C1biii	28947	9	9	9	5	28591	7	5			4					2
HCB	1A1a	13751768	1083679	2463679	1043679	1093679	120786734	1264629	1254629	1304629	1284629	2554995	1375610	1655610	1755610	1855610	3329382	2124796	2230926	2337381	2137661	3929127	4312710	4203098	3838611
HCB	1A2gviii	29456668					26388047					28847111					5040					33170	6090	5090	4950
HCB	2A1	8671990	8770000	9380000	9290000	9620000	9271950	8580000	9040000	9000000	8860000	9341600	8930000	8370000	7830000	7730000	8368340	8708740	8650670	8370000	7600000	7111150	6042740	6000880	2501920
HCB	2C1	9393266	8468066	7178066	6908066	6128066	7038646	5938066	6618066	7198066	7148066	7702628	8139978	8729978	8579978	7589978	6364040	6513467	6286405	6741488	857716	2200202	18307033	7719679	276543
HCB	5C1bi	16442	20676884	20676884	20676884	20686884	17273	154443009	154443009	154423009	154433009	17059	2831967	2831967	2831967	2831967	7762	3349991	3881527	4074088	2466857
PCB	1A1a	19660	6855029	5815028	5675028	6345027	20706	5144791	4034555	4284320	2504085	17639	1913768	2353686	2223605	2233523	18771	1372984	1212831	1212550	642481	33815	55139	50942	44704
PCB	1A2gviii	23482	110000	30000	30000	30000	2154	30000	40000	90000	100000	311	200000	220000	300000	260000	60	340000	340000	450000	650000	24840	6940	7180	7280
PCB	1A4bi	1771529	1800406	1530418	1340430	1050442	1124888	1090450	940446	690442	600438	713204	740467	510500	390533	340566	339625	260624	230593	330704	490736	244682	226984	230070	258087
PCB	2A1	3260770	3200000	3310000	3250000	3400000	3360610	3160000	3280000	3240000	3170000	3395340	3200000	3060000	2910000	2870000	3064050	3180000	3170000	3070000	2720000	70799230	45376190	3751490	2674400
PCB	2C1	98542790	83830000	74900000	70900000	75930000	82207780	70450000	75200000	88880000	80510000	87146200	89930000	92180000	88470000	83710000	67546700	78450000	61690000	62640000	10560000	23312180	11315020	4586380	1439820
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	105155865	97063086	86629060	82235034	87771008	87889064	80790354	84363726	97987098	87630469	92835737	96559437	98825033	94680629	89746225	71405788	83770460	66866278	67890691	15124932	95089888	57390562	9106077	4711442