Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BE Submission year: 2013

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2011
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2011
PMs: 2000 - 2011

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
NOx	1A2a	14929	15487	12323	15021	17145	15656	15270	17166	15749	16222	17385	15972	17115	19231	19441	16206	14854	13796	13718	5980	9412	8401
NOx	1A4cii	6568	7799	7882	7895	7586	3843	7744	7768	7826	8105	8038	7714	7669	7876	7983	6601	6542	6384	6308	6442	6317	6348
NMVOC	1A3biv	5065	6335	7579	8901	11913	12705	12627	11968	11789	10114	8527	8198	7804	7572	7370	6781	6410	6040	5449	5000	4547	4481
NMVOC	1A4cii	4623	1357	1376	1383	1321	1540	1348	1355	1366	1420	3557	1349	1338	1366	1380	3463	3451	3404	3399	3271	3263	3281
NMVOC	1B2b	3914	3575	3464	4200	3607	3693	3570	3397	3286	3311	3512	3439	3304	3202	3140	3320	3391	3432	3301	3366	3653	3370
NMVOC	3D2	9409	19155	19200	19237	18863	17876	18961	18990	19021	19083	12732	19188	19300	19363	19451	13662	13914	14183	14317	14430	14581	14650
NMVOC	3D3	5606	9632	9671	9569	9271	9381	9092	9547	8342	8702	5251	6867	7069	6653	5605	3575	3678	3166	3038	3178	3238	2310
NMVOC	UNFCCCTOTAL	362532	305823	301580	292123	278942	268404	251172	239879	232321	220580	235716	194644	180069	170015	157976	194213	195357	177314	166572	157132	106573	150553
SOx	1A2a	15732	15822	15789	18178	18483	14390	12573	13587	11921	11203	14151	12741	11999	12712	13604	12480	10202	10567	11681	4761	7339	5707
SOx	1A3di(i)	12641	12025	11834	11701	12095	12319	12433	13316	13459	14172	12038	14538	15045	14572	11783	12251	12061	10638	8225	7125	3817	3112
SOx	2A1	4334	4365	4466	4499	4600	4686	4335	4868	4483	4480	4946	4435	5314	5669	4783	5237	4892	6253	4501	4448	4725	4688
SOx	2A2	5709	5333	5164	5661	5603	5789	5642	5946	6368	6496	5874	5568	5772	5482	3155	3123	3064	3108	2249	661	1011	119
SOx	2B5a	17998	16629	13187	11806	5726	10038	9290	6852	9391	6747	8520	7801	5056	3522	3399	3640	3322	4006	3182	1990	2402	2231
SOx	2G		2010	2010	2010	1189			7295		10489	1		7782	6346	8092	6693	6940	6440	5818	4078	2739	2401
NH3	4B1a	20148	16502	15901	14356	14198	15661	14238	13758	13868	13602	14583	14645	14205	13710	12477	12165	11853	11260	11068	10975	10853	10671
NH3	4B9b	1410	1175	1193	1233	1337	1529	1600	1787	1801	1859	2544	1896	1871	1709	1676	2039	1956	1963	1924	1975	2101	2085
CO	1A3biii	20368	35058	35838	37200	37263	32763	22518	23598	23713	21222	15619	22150	21932	21583	21494	16260	15490	14168	11953	9433	13404	13290
CO	2C5e		61	54	23706	34539	17214	18083	44764	391	34727	133	94	25312	25128	29817	81	47	39	42	38	26	34

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
PM2.5	2A7a	758	758	758	758	758	764	758	759	787	749	747	756
TSP	2A7a	5958	5958	5958	5958	5958	6007	5958	5958	6666	5741	5385	5893

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Pb	1A1a	35604346	31320599	41469916	1263302	1098689	7277175	5149324	4291776	1352035	1091977	1457675	1190658	976488	1027682	1167816	1312592	1161727	853623	930175	1282671	845853	1033013
Pb	1A2a	1356510	1625370	1519850	1472010	1375991	1043460	9348300	1045709	5792060	913893	965050	2865100	1544767	1061917	1296646	747030	589350	792790	784070	803940	1281560	1237410
Pb	1A2b	11901320	11650110	17504110	6357140	2236961	7412810	7649140	508117	4588100	497292	94310	1410300	40475	31001	33602	97360	122360	127340	117280	116300	110350	123100
Pb	1A2fi	7011573	4918626	6478135	2617776	4410580	25516644	24412103	2724285	3462184	1379879	1163033	1877249	2341561	2571402	1818311	1902548	1198349	2805037	2502765	1860713	727700	687080
Pb	1A3	316303717										3326774					3211476	3173497	3169013	3102362	3006525	4350326	4350384
Pb	1A3bi	288553416	246320591	214406299	162313159	138860460	128887766	95227903	85501786	79286370	28660077	1050652	8548877	8186328	8071599	7587330	811603	767819	727967	679776	651253	271695	271527
Pb	1A3biii	12589645	12662086	14582884	14778702	15854219	136276	280748	232370	192441	140142	57671	21878	21884	22840	21965	62318	63317	65347	58974	56257	138276	138161
Pb	1A3bvi	1373000					1509000					2161895					2272672	2277460	2310419	2299872	2236108	3882197	3882468
Pb	1A4cii	2633564	10530	10670	10750	10240	1185252	10440	10520	10590	11040	1148739	10480	10370	10560	10660	1050360	1036999	982449	963359	995684	989854	992243
Pb	1B2aiv							10000		12000		1074000	2000				1100000	1104000	1099000	1112000	1099000	1097000	1086000
Pb	2A2	461310	433990	419220	419420	439760	447390	431560	430590	454050	463820	443330	425960	441160	418820	172450	115930	385260	441350	165650	106770	2346880	95040
Pb	2C5e	14740000	12848000	17667000	34652000	18251628	25452500	19519030	99019007	11361030	64935488	12728310	7310750	36232535	31686852	42908892	10228620	4944980	5337710	3527160	3273120	3266030	3323350
Pb	2G	332000				12449743			15077131		3308			54898	48454	1450						5000	5000
Pb	6Cc	16463073	14785390	9846773	32382273	1696110	7710416	591015	521148	516621	221772	174290	101608	85154	52890	59383	7672	160	7860	150	4310	610	770
Cd	1A1a	1111293	911725	1143261	94060	85959	195075	599778	109967	98494	101053	168340	92723	133608	130949	173038	151581	136714	139362	272822	143708	196084	215881
Cd	1A2b	1758230	1795110	2739110	18140	75210	157500	91440	11400	147400	11270	5210	48630	1237	1046	936	5120	6170	6160	5100	5140	5320	5190
Cd	1A2c	78930	98320	89790	77570	65270	60680	43950	38740	35680	36980	109980	41090	24155	23817	21597	102850	101540	97980	100570	94630	110210	111470
Cd	1A2fi	95927	106453	92698	90390	86503	533807	533859	117816	140799	115388	64700	90532	57516	74045	77755	88469	66979	91267	80535	65433	66380	56720
Cd	1A3bi	733272	738950	676922	721833	765843	33549	40629	41005	41598	44361	40816	44942	45287	45728	46501	39843	40844	41055	40939	41094	38024	37855
Cd	1B1b	404470	391342	340970	273533	256100	256840	256470	229700	199230	192010	193590	196530	164530	163660	175670	170710	173870	153410	91190	58700	90340	85210
Cd	2B5a	124800	147800	14800	13800	13800	13330	14130	7130	415100	5800	1160	1160	673	7470	7803	7450	3000	4500	7400	4410	5020	7640
Cd	2C1	922920	851340	772910	685240	786150	792140	817730	660520	823450	640610	1163980	810640	524730	563140	615840	812210	1051110	899250	1035690	352890	600860	480830
Cd	2C5e	409000	363000	370000	3565000	1657000	2191360	1076840	2219679	266840	771156	425730	197170	498661	416950	688014	394020	251020	252020	235020	462020	644000	710000
Cd	2G					295823			305513		117	2000		507	171		1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	5000	6000
Cd	6Cc	807404	832242	622599	191189	188345	329874	56615	52433	32320	19243	5990	9514	19893	7595	10610	1898	10	240	18680	3100	190	270
Cd	FUTOTAL	7199528	6922857	7549259	6385377	4914808	5269344	4156455	4315281	2780973	2446807	3037253	2063670	1955184	1913142	2321912	2666074	2752297	2513972	2791991	2073825	2695453	2514741
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	7199528	6922857	7549259	6385377	4914808	5269344	4156455	4315281	2780973	2446807	3037253	2063670	1955184	1913142	2321912	2666074	2752297	2513972	2791991	2073825	2695453	2514741
Cd	UNFCCCTOTAL	7199528	6922857	7549259	6385377	4914808	5269344	4156455	4315281	2780973	2446807	3037243	2063670	1955184	1913142	2321912	2666064	2752287	2513962	2791981	2073815	2695443	2514731
Hg	1A1a	2306518	1958385	2131673	744536	741601	956192	728150	761526	637044	392480	567533	489948	1307497	1253719	932365	207754	126337	125766	235084	130350	156363	277467
Hg	1A2fi	75991	69602	70368	65125	61922	70759	117946	63180	73293	60075	69721	62273	59213	52673	45542	53730	51978	57178	48698	44792	53300	52791
Hg	2A1	326190	325280	335150	331460	343020	348870	326790	334390	333970	331440	310300	290860	367050	410710	563510	236980	228890	392680	441840	537710	227820	251290
Hg	2B5a	1990780	982110	1024110	1327110	1718456	978200	983110	892996	797050	636165	684900	499900	285740	302072	342457	271000	292000	217000	221000	224000	199000	95120
Hg	2C1	281820	262480	231720	200050	284740	268620	223960	332590	408260	316940	639220	422720	429170	462190	465940	737070	664610	1662970	1942040	240580	448910	322460
Hg	2C5e										681000	142260	220	299220	101220	122000	111000	116000	111000	108000	40000	56000	58000
Hg	6Cc	1088371	1174404	1132601	393120	313433	247419	473273	360620	115340	101129	4920	19888	26005	12764	25820	8784	20	100	1230	170	190	30

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
DIOX	1A1a	145268	547	529	518	2578	602	2478	1386	1394	1266	10445	1239	596	571	541	1048	939	2057	2016	920	988	1721
DIOX	1A2fi	127	6083	6072	6063	6073	6503	6072	6262	6432	827	479	621	889	806	641	544	534	554	507	468	3897	4604
DIOX	2C5e	32998	68000	68000	68000	68000	67300	67000	67000	67000	10000	1366	2080	1070	70		349	226	271	250	400	315	343
HCB	2A1	8671990	60000	60000	60000	70000	70000	60000	60000	60000	60000	9340000	60000	60000	60000	60000	8370000	8708740	8650670	8370000	7600000	7110000	6040000
HCB	2C1	9225200	8300000	7010000	5420000	5960000	6870000	5770000	6450000	7030000	6980000	7520000	7960000	8550000	8400000	7410000	6170000	6325980	6108950	6570000	740000	2030000	2130000
HCB	FUTOTAL	18610920	9110000	7810000	6220000	6830000	7720000	6690000	7320000	7870000	7800000	17510000	8700000	9520000	9500000	8580000	15550000	16176050	15952340	16210000	9580000	11260000	10640000
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	18610920	9110000	7810000	6220000	6830000	7720000	6690000	7320000	7870000	7800000	17510000	8700000	9520000	9500000	8580000	15550000	16176050	15952340	16210000	9580000	11260000	10640000
HCB	UNFCCCTOTAL	18610920	9110000	7810000	6220000	6830000	7720000	6690000	7320000	7870000	7800000	17510000	8700000	9520000	9500000	8580000	15550000	16176050	15952340	16210000	9580000	11260000	10640000